The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceará, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a)characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c)institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceará case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.     

Morphological Variation of the Sea Silverside Odontesthes regia in Regions with Dissimilar Upwelling Intensity along the Humboldt Current System

Ocean Science Journal - We evaluated the influence of areas with dissimilar upwelling intensity along the Humboldt Current System on the morphological variation of the economically important sea...     

Changes in trophic flow structure of Independence Bay (Peru) over an ENSO cycle

During the strong warm El Niño (EN) that occurred in 1997/98, Independence Bay (14°S, Peru) showed a ca. 10 °C increase in surface temperatures, higher oxygen concentrations, and clearer water due to decreased phytoplankton concentrations. Under these quasi-tropical conditions, many benthic species suffered (e.g. macroalgae, portunid crabs, and polychaetes) while others benefited (e.g. scallop, sea stars, and sea urchins). The most obvious change was the strong recruitment success and subsequent proliferation of the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, whose biomass increased fiftyfold. To understand these changes, steady-state models of the bay ecosystem trophic structure were constructed and compared for a normal upwelling year (1996) and during an EN (1998), and longer-term dynamics (1996–2003) were explored based on time series of catch and biomass using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software. Model inputs were based on surveys and landings data collected by the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE). Results indicate that while ecosystem size (total throughput) is reduced by 18% during EN, mainly as a result of decreased total primary production, benthic biomass remains largely unchanged despite considerable shifts in the dominant benthic taxa (e.g. scallops replace polychaetes as secondary consumers). Under normal upwelling conditions, predation by snails and crabs utilize the production of their prey almost completely, resulting in more efficient energy flow to higher trophic levels than occurs during EN. However during EN, the proliferation of the scallop A. purpuratus combined with decreased phytoplankton increased the proportion of directly utilized primary production, while exports and flows to detritus are reduced. The simulations suggest that the main cause for the scallop outburst and for the reduction in crab and macroalgae biomass was a direct temperature effect, whereas other changes are partially explained by trophic interactions. The simulations suggest that bottom-up effects largely control the system.     

Cold seep communities in the deep eastern Mediterranean Sea: composition, symbiosis and spatial distribution on mud volcanoes

Two mud volcano fields were explored during the French–Dutch MEDINAUT cruise (1998) with the submersible NAUTILE, one south of Crete along the Mediteranean Ridge at about 2000 m depth (Olimpi mud field) and the other south of Turkey between 1700 and 2000 m depth (Anaximander mud field) where high methane concentrations were measured. Chemosynthetic communities were observed and sampled on six mud volcanoes and along a fault scarp. The communities were dominated by bivalves of particularly small size, belonging to families commonly found at seeps (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Thyasiridae) and to Lucinidae mostly encountered in littoral sulfide-rich sediments and at the shallowest seeps. Siboglinid polychaetes including a large vestimentiferan Lamellibrachia sp. were also associated. At least four bivalve species and one siboglinid are associated with symbiotic chemoautotrophic bacteria, as evidenced by Transmission Electronic Microscopy and isotopic ratio measurements. Among the bivalves, a mytilid harbors both methanotrophic and sulfide-oxidizing bacteria. Video spatial analysis of the community distribution on three volcanoes shows that dense bivalve shell accumulations (mainly lucinids) spread over large areas, from 10% to 38% of the explored areas (2500–15000 m²) on the different volcanoes. Lamellibrachia sp. had different spatial distribution and variable density in the two mud volcano fields, apparently related with higher methane fluxes in the Anaximander volcanoes and maybe with the instability due to brines in the Olimpi area. The abundance and richness of the observed chemosynthetic fauna and the size of some of the species contrast with the poverty of the deep eastern Mediterranean. The presence of a specialized fauna, with some mollusk genera and species shared with other reduced environments of the Mediterranean, but not dominated by the large bivalves usually found at seeps, is discussed.     

Geological risk assessment of the area surrounding Altamira Cave: A proposed Natural Risk Index and Safety Factor for protection of prehistoric caves

Altamira Cave occurs in a carbonate sequence-dated as middle to upper Cenomanian, being characterized by tabular bedding. This sequence has been studied in detail and mapped in an attempt to delimit the beds in which the cave was formed. The cave forms part of a karstic complex developed in the Altamira Formation, which consists of eight stratigraphic units characterized by karstic forms and landslides as the main geomorphologic elements. The strong relationship between sinkholes and faults within the area was also revealed, with sinkholes of oval morphology aligned along the faults. Inside the cave, the subhorizontal bedding is intersected by subvertical joints, generating geometrical blocks prone to falling down. This is the main process of the present evolution of the cave in addition to the dissolution and precipitation of carbonates in local zones. We used this geological characterization as the basis for the definition of protection areas around prehistoric caves, applied in this article to the Altamira Cave. Landslides, water flow towards the cave, rock falls within cave and karstic features are the main geological risks affecting the karstic complex. Two semi-quantitative indexes were proposed, the Natural Risk Index (NRI) and Safety Factor (SF), with the main aim of determining the risk level in different zones of the study area. The information provided by geological studies as well as the results obtained using the proposed indexes allowed definition suitable protection areas around the cave.     

A sequential extraction to determine the distribution of apatite in granitoid soil mineral pools with application to weathering at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest,NH, USA

Mineral weathering in soils is an important source of many nutrients to forest ecosystems. Apatite, a Ca phosphate mineral, occurs in trace amounts in virtually all igneous and metamorphic rocks and is often found as small mineral inclusions in more weathering-resistant silicate minerals. To better understand the distribution of apatite in soils and its exposure to soil solutions, a sequential extraction method was developed to selectively dissolve minerals from soils so that the amount of apatite in contact with soil solutions versus that armored by silicate minerals could be quantified. The use of three molarities of HNO₃ (0.01, 0.1 and 1 M) at three temperatures (0, 10, or 20 °C) was explored and it was found that apatite congruently dissolved in 1 M HNO₃ at all three temperatures, but did not completely dissolve in weaker HNO₃ solutions. Soil horizons, glacial till (i.e., soil parent material), and individual minerals separated from till collected from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, were subjected to a 4-step sequential extraction. Chemical analyses of the extracts indicate that 1 M NH₄Cl (pH 7; 20 °C) removes exchangeable ions, 1 M HNO₃ at 20 °C primarily dissolves apatite in contact with solutions, 1 M HNO₃ at 200 °C primarily dissolves biotite and chlorite (and apatite armored by them), and a mixture of concentrated HNO₃, HCl, and HF at 200 °C dissolves the more refractory minerals including muscovite, alkali feldspar, plagioclase feldspar and quartz (and apatite armored by these minerals). This extraction method was applied to soil profiles from HBEF to demonstrate that it could be used to interpret the abundance of apatite and other minerals as a function of depth. Approximately 70% of the apatite in the HBEF soil parent material is exposed to soil solutions; the remaining 30% is armored in more weathering-resistant micas and feldspars. In the upper soil horizons, the only apatite that has not been weathered from the soil occurs as inclusions in micas and feldspars and thus the rate of dissolution of apatite in weathered soil horizons is controlled by silicate mineral dissolution.     

Ammonia observations of the nearby molecular cloud MBM 12

We present NH₃(1,1) and (2,2) observations of MBM 12, the closest known molecular cloud (65-pc distance), aimed at finding evidence for on-going star formation processes. No local temperature (with a T _rot upper limit of 12 K) or linewidth enhancement is found, which suggests that the area of the cloud that we have mapped (15-arcmin size) is not currently forming stars. Therefore this nearby 'starless' molecular gas region is an ideal laboratory to study the physical conditions preceding new star formation.
A radio continuum source has been found in Very Large Array archive data, close to but outside the NH₃ emission. This source is likely to be a background object.     

Fault plane orientations of microearthquakes at Mt. Etna from the inversion of P-wave rise times

A crucial point in the analysis of tectonic earthquakes occurring in a volcanic area is the inference of the orientation of the structures along which the ruptures occur. These structures represent zones of weakness which could favor the migration of melt toward the surface and the assessment of their geometry is a fundamental step toward efficient evaluation of volcanic risk. We analyzed a high-quality dataset of 171 low-magnitude, tectonic earthquakes that occurred at Mt. Etna during the 2002–2003 eruption. We applied a recently developed technique aimed at inferring the source parameters (source size, dip and strike fault) and the intrinsic quality factor Q_p of P waves from the inversion of rise times. The technique is based on numerically calibrated relationships among the rise time of first P waves and the source parameters for a circular crack rupturing at a constant velocity. For the most of the events the directivity source effect did not allow us to constrain the fault plane orientation. For a subset of 45 events with well constrained focal mechanisms we were able to constrain the “true” fault plane orientation. The level of resolution of the fault planes was assessed through a non linear analysis based on the random deviates technique. The significance of the retrieved fault plane solutions and the fit of the assumed source model to data were assessed through a χ-square test. Most of the retrieved fault plane solutions agree with the geometrical trend of known surface faults. The inferred source parameters and Q_p are in agreement with the results of previous studies.     

Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy

In the past several decades, decision makers in the United States have increasingly called upon publicly funded science to provide “usable” information for policy making, whether in the case of acid rain, famine prevention or climate change policy. As demands for usability become more prevalent for publicly accountable scientific programs, there is a need to better understand opportunities and constraints to science use in order to inform policy design and implementation. Motivated by recent critique of the decision support function of the US Global Change Research Program, this paper seeks to address this issue by specifically examining the production and use of climate science. It reviews empirical evidence from the rich scholarship focused on climate science use, particularly seasonal climate forecasts, to identify factors that constrain or foster usability. It finds, first, that climate science usability is a function both of the context of potential use and of the process of scientific knowledge production itself. Second, nearly every case of successful use of climate knowledge involved some kind of iteration between knowledge producers and users. The paper argues that, rather than an automatic outcome of the call for the production of usable science, iterativity is the result of the action of specific actors and organizations who ‘own’ the task of building the conditions and mechanisms fostering its creation. Several different types of institutional arrangements can accomplish this task, depending on the needs and resources available. While not all of the factors that enhance usability of science for decision making are within the realm of the scientific enterprise itself, many do offer opportunities for improvement. Science policy mechanisms such as the level of flexibility afforded to research projects and the metrics used to evaluate the outcomes of research investment can be critical to providing the necessary foundation for iterativity and production of usable science to occur.     

Imaging the recent sediment dynamics of the Galicia Bank region (Atlantic,NW Iberian Peninsula)

Multibeam bathymetry, high resolution multi-channel, and very high resolution single-channel (3.5 kHz) seismic records were used to depict the complex geomorphology that defines the Galicia Bank region (Atlantic, NW Iberian Peninsula). This region (≈620–5,000 m water depth) is characterized by a great variety of features: structural features (scarps, highs, valleys, fold bulges), fluid dynamics-related features (structural undulations and collapse craters), mass-movement features (gullies, channels, mass-flow deposits, slope-lobe complexes, and mass-transport deposits), bottom-current features (moats, furrows, abraded surface, sediment waves, and drifts), (hemi)pelagic features, mixed features (abraded surfaces associated to mixed sediments) and bioconstructions. These features represent architectural elements of four sedimentary systems: slope apron, contouritic, current-controlled (hemi)pelagic, and (hemi)pelagic. These systems are a reflection of different sedimentary processes: downslope (mass transport, mass flows, turbidity flows), alongslope (bottom currents of Mediterranean Outflow Water, Labrador Sea Water, North Atlantic Deep Water, and Lower Deep Water), vertical settling, and the interplay between them. The architectural and sediment dynamic complexities, for their part, are conditioned by the morphostructural complexity of the region, whose structures (exposed scarps and highs) favor multiple submarine sediment sources, affect the type and evolution of the mass-movement processes, and interact with different water masses. This region and similar sedimentary environments far from the continental sediment sources, as seamounts, are ideal zones for carrying out submarine source-to-sink studies, and can represent areas subject to hazards, both geologic and oceanographic in origin.