Assessing the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and informative value model in the Bamenda highlands

Landslides are a major natural hazard in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon, and their occurrence in this region has most often been studied using qualitative methods. The aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and the informative value model. Landslide inventory was done through literature review, aerial photo-interpretation, participatory GIS and field survey. Six geo-environmental factors including slope, curvature, aspect, land use, lithology and geomorphology were used as landslide conditioning (static) factors. The susceptibility of the area to future landslide events was assessed by making a correlation between past landslides and geo-environmental factors using the informative value model. The landslide inventory involving 110 landslides was divided into two equal groups using random division criterion and was used to train and validate the model. The analysis showed that slope and land use are the most important causal factors of landslides in the area. The susceptibility index map predicted most landslides to occur around the steep slopes of the Bamenda escarpment that is being used for multiple anthropic activities. The training model had a success rate of 87%, and the validation model had a prediction rate of 90%. The prediction rate curve shows that 44, 32, 18 and 6% of future landslides will occur on 3, 8, 21 and 68% of the study area. The model correctly classified 89% of unstable areas and 81% of the stable areas with an accuracy rate of 0.90. This quantitative result complement other qualitative assessment results that show the Bamenda escarpment zone as a high-risk area. However, the area susceptible to landslide in this study goes beyond what earlier studies had indicated as houses and other infrastructure were found on old landslide sites whose scars have been eroded by human activities. This new input thus improves the quality of information placed at the disposal of civil protection units and land use managers during decision making.     

A View on the Limiting City Expansion: Inner-City Attraction Issues through Linear Correlation

Current inner-city¹ depopulation coupled with significant peripheral expansions disrupting nature, are the rule in many of the world’s large cities such as Montreal. Expansion needs to be balanced from the inner-city attraction perspective. To deal with that objective and following an inductive process in the scientific method, two field surveys were implemented in one of Montreal’s inner-city most popular neighbourhoods (Sainte-Marie) for measuring its current attraction power. Results expose that current local residential housing/services improvement in terms of their medium to high needs/impedances² linear correlations to achieve it discourage people to continue living in Sainte-Marie on a “free will” basis. This report concludes that limiting city expansion at least through this inner-city neighbourhood’s attraction level is still very much a myth.     

International Pellet Watch: Global monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in coastal waters. 1. Initial phase data on PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs

Samples of polyethylene pellets were collected at 30 beaches from 17 countries and analyzed for organochlorine compounds. PCB concentrations in the pellets were highest on US coasts, followed by western Europe and Japan, and were lower in tropical Asia, southern Africa and Australia. This spatial pattern reflected regional differences in the usage of PCBs and was positively correlated with data from Mussel Watch, another monitoring approach. DDTs showed high concentrations on the US west coast and in Vietnam. In Vietnam, DDT was predominant over its metabolites (DDE and DDD), suggesting the principal source may be current usage of the pesticide for malaria control. High concentrations of pesticide HCHs were detected in the pellets from southern Africa, suggesting current usage of the pesticides in southern Africa. This study demonstrates the utility and feasibility of the International Pellet Watch approach to monitor POPs at a global scale.     

Anisotropic P-wave attenuation measured from a multi-azimuth surface seismic reflection survey

A system of aligned vertical fractures produces azimuthal variations in stacking velocity and amplitude variation with offset, characteristics often reported in seismic reflection data for hydrocarbon exploration. Studies of associated attenuation anisotropy have been mostly theoretical, laboratory or vertical seismic profiling based. We used an 11 common‐midpoint‐long portion of each of four marine surface‐seismic reflection profiles, intersecting each other at 45° within circa 100 m of a common location, to measure the azimuthal variation of effective attenuation, Q⁻¹_eff and stacking velocity, in a shallow interval, about 100 m thick, in which consistently orientated vertical fracturing was expected due to an underlying salt diapirism. We found qualitative and quantitative consistency between the azimuthal variation in the attenuation and stacking velocity, and published amplitude variation with offset results. The 135° azimuth line showed the least apparent attenuation (1000 Q⁻¹_eff= 16 ± 7) and the fastest stacking velocity, hence we infer it to be closest to the fracture trend: the orthogonal 45° line showed the most apparent attenuation (1000Q⁻¹_eff= 52 ± 15) and slowest stacking velocity. The variation of Q⁻¹_eff with azimuth φ is well fitted by 1000Q⁻¹_eff = 34 − 18cos[2(φ+40°)] giving a fracture direction of 140 ± 23° (±1SD, derived from ‘bootstrapping’ fits to all 11⁴ combinations of individual common‐midpoint/azimuth measurements), compared to 134 ± 47° from published amplitude variation with offset data. The effects of short‐window spectral estimation and choices of spectral ratio bandwidth and offset ranges used in attenuation analysis, individually give uncertainties of up to ±13° in fracture direction. This magnitude of azimuthal variation can be produced by credible crack geometries (e.g., dry cracks, radius 6.5 m, aspect ratio 3 × 10⁻⁵, crack density 0.2) but we do not claim these to be the actual properties of the interval studied, because of the lack of well control (and its consequences for the choice of theoretical model and host rock physical properties) and the small number of azimuths available here.     

Phreatomagmatic to Strombolian eruptive activity of basaltic cinder cones: Montaña Los Erales, Tenerife, Canary Islands

Phreatomagmatic activity results from the interaction of magma and external water during a volcanic eruption and is a frequent eruptive phenomenon worldwide. Such ‘fuel-coolant’ reactions change the eruptive dynamics, thus generating particles that reflect the degree of explosivity. Different eruptive phases may thus be identified from deposits, allowing us to reconstruct conditions that prevailed in the past and use these to predict the level of explosivity in a given geological setting in the future.A detailed study of the deposits from Montaña Los Erales, a 70 m-high Quaternary cinder cone belonging to a rift-related chain of vents in the Bandas del Sur region, in Southeast Tenerife, was undertaken. Field observations on excavated sections and SEM analysis of tephra suggest that the eruption style changed progressively from an initial phreatomagmatic phase, through a transitional stage, to one that was entirely Strombolian. To investigate the causes and the nature of these changes in eruptive style, products from each major unit were analysed for their morphology using hand specimen observations, secondary electron microscopy, backscatter electron microscopy, and reflected light microscopy to examine fragment size variation, fragment morphologies, vesicularity, and the level of secondary hydrous alteration (e.g. palagonitisation and zeolitisation). Study results demonstrate that the initial phase of activity was largely driven by magma–water interaction, where magma may have interacted with a lens of fresh ground- or surface water. With proceeding eruptive activity the water became exhausted, giving rise to an entirely Strombolian eruptive style.Examples of phreatomagmatic activity that occur on typical rift-related basaltic vent alignments are not infrequent in the Canary Islands. These vent systems usually erupt in Strombolian fashion, producing scoria and lava flows that do not generally extend far beyond the vent area. However, aligned feeders may intersect different strata, structural features, and different hydrological situations, thus giving rise to activity that is less predictable in setting, intensity, and duration. The occurrence of phreatomagmatism in an otherwise low-explosivity basaltic eruptive environment increases the need for awareness of the geo-hydrological situation in volcanically active areas. Studying the past eruptive history is therefore essential to derive realistic scenarios for future vulnerability evaluation and risk assessment, especially in densely populated areas like the Canary Islands.     

Comparative hydrology: analysis of a semiarid and a humid tropical watershed

This paper analyses measured data from two small tropical watersheds: one in a semiarid (Aiuaba, Brazil, 12·0 km², 5 years of measurements) and another in a humid environment (Jaruco, Cuba, 43·5 km², 21 years of measurements). The watersheds are similar with respect to catchment area (tens of km²), potential evaporation (2·1–2·6 m year^?1), temperature (22–30 °C) and relief (mild hillslope steepness); but show considerable hydrological discrepancies: average precipitation in the humid watershed is two times higher; average river discharge (mm year^?1) is five times higher; and surface water availability (mm year^?1) is 14 times higher than in the semiarid watershed. Long‐term operation of hypothetical surface reservoirs in both basins is simulated. The analysis shows that 73% of the average river discharge are available (with 90% annual reliability) in the humid watershed, against only 28% in the semiarid. The main cause of this difference is the excess evaporation, which consumes 55% of the stored water in the semiarid reservoir, but only 12% in the humid one. The research concludes that: (1) although precipitation indicators are higher in the humid area, they are of the same order of magnitude as in the semiarid; and (2) fluvial‐regime and water‐availability variables are more than one order of magnitude higher in the humid basin, which shows a multiplication effect of these hydrological processes. Such major hydrological differences, despite the similarities between the two tropical watersheds, show the importance of further investigations in the field of comparative hydrology. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling forest regeneration strategies through the development of a spatio-temporal growth interaction model

Forest regeneration methods are an important factor in the generation of future forest spatial patterns. However, the difficulty of obtaining experimental data to study such interfering operations, mainly due the long life-span of tree species, has limited the analysis of these key silvicultural tools. Stochastic simulation of such real forest scenarios (i.e. simulated forest) is, therefore, a practical alternative to analyse such prescribed treatments. Here we adapt the Renshaw and Särkkä model to study forest regeneration strategies following the previous work of Renshaw et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008). We show that the highly flexible Renshaw and Särkkä algorithm to generate marked point configurations evolving through continuous time is easily adapted to enable the simulation and the comparative study of different forest regeneration methods. In particular, we consider two important regeneration strategies, namely, the shelterwood and the single-tree selection methods due to their forest importance. The results obtained strongly suggested that combining the birth-growth–spatial interaction model with a spatially explicit regeneration algorithm results in a flexible and realistic mechanism to mimic real forest dynamics.     

Seasonality and anomalies of sea surface temperature off the coast of Nayarit, Mexico

Sea surface temperature (SST) harmonic and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses covering 18 years were performed for the area located from 114° to 105° W and from 18° to 25° N. The results indicate that the influence of the annual signal predominates over the semi-annual signal, and the closer to the coast, the stronger the annual harmonic. Several interannual anomalies arose that are connected with the main global indexes, especially the Oceanic Niño Index. Pearson correlations between the first temporal mode of the SST and regional rainfalls in Nayarit indicate that maximum correlations (r?>?0.7) are observed when there is a +1-month lag between the series. However, this result indicates that SST is delayed with 1 month after rainfall occurrence, which shows that the dominant influence in this relationship is not the SST forcing.     

The 1996 Biescas campsite disaster in the Central Spanish Pyrenees,and its temporal and spatial context

On the evening of the 7 August 1996 an intense storm occurred over the Arás catchment near Biescas in the central Pyrenees. Eighty-seven people were killed as a result of the subsequent flood, which hit a campsite located on the alluvial fan at the outlet of the 18·8 km² catchment. This paper presents the main results of a hydromorphological study of the event. The Betés subcatchment received the most intense rainfall, estimated at somewhat in excess of 250 mm, which resulted in a peak flow from this tributary of 300 m³ s⁻¹. Just downstream from the Betés river junction, flow in the main channel reached 400 m³ s⁻¹, increasing to around 500 m³ s⁻¹ further downstream. Rainfall in the larger Aso tributary was less intense, and in the head reaches flow remained within-bank, representing a one in two-year return period event. Flow from this tributary did not exceed 100 m³ s⁻¹, indicating that the Betés subcatchment supplied some 75% of the flow from just 28·7% of the catchment area. The extreme flows caused the collapse of a series of sediment trap dams in the Arás channel downstream of the Betés junction. This resulted in the addition of 68 000 m³ of sediment to an already disastrous event. Data from other rain gauges in the area showed both the extremely local nature of the event, and the problems of return period analysis for such storms, whose peaks are rarely observed at gauges. Together with the high geomorphological risks of the zone, this leads to the conclusion that a new method of spatial and temporal risk analysis is required for infrastructure planning. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the effect of wetting on the mechanical behavior of crushable granular materials

It is well known that the compressibility of crushable granular materials increases with the moisture content,due to the decrease of particle strength in a humid environment.An existing approach to take into account the effect of grain breakage in constitutive modeling consists in linking the evolution of the grain size distribution to the plastic work.But how the material humidity can affect this relationship is not clear,and experimental evidence is quite scarce.Based on compression tests on dry and saturated crushable sand recently reported by the present authors,a new non-linear relationship is proposed between the amount of particle breakage and the plastic work.The expression contains two parameters:(1)a material constant dependent on the grain characteristics and(2)a constant depending on the wetting condition(in this study,dry or saturated).A key finding is that the relationship does not depend on the stress path and,for a given wetting condition,only one set of parameters is necessary to reproduce the results of isotropic,oedometric,and triaxial compression tests.The relationship has been introduced into an elastoplastic constitutive model based on the critical state concept with a double yield surface for plastic sliding and compression.The breakage ratio is introduced into the expression of the elastic stiffness,the critical state line and the hardening compression pressure.Incremental stress-strain computations with the model allow the plastic work to be calculated and,therefore,the evolution of particle crushing can be predicted through the proposed non-linear relationship and reintroduced into the constitutive equations.Accurate predictions of the experimental results in terms of both stress-strain relationships and breakage ratio were obtained.