Sulle formule per le osservazioni di differente precisione sopra una medesima grandezza e sulla compensazione rigorosa di misure miste lineari e angolari

Riassunto L'A., partendo dal principio che un sistema di osservazioni di diversa precisione è riducibile a un sistema di osservazioni di uguale precisione, propone una nuova formula per la valutazione dell'errore medio dell'unità di peso. Tale formula non si annulla nel caso di misure che, pur essendo di peso diverso, sono uguali fra loro. — Nella seconda parte l'A. avanza l'ipotesi che un aspetto geometrico della compensazione di misure miste sia quello di trasformare una figura in un'altra, soddisfacente prefissate condizioni, con un minimo di deformazione; ritiene che tale minimo possa anche non essere dato da una combinazione lineare dei quadrati degli errori lineari e angolari.

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Summary Basing himself on the principle that a system of observations of different precision may be reduced to a system of observations of the same precision, the Author proposes a new formula for a valuation of the standard error of the weight unit. Such formula is not nullified in case of measurements which, though of different weights, are equal. — In the second part the Author puts forward the hypothesis that a geometric aspect of the compensation of different kinds of measures, is of transforming a figure, wich satisfies given conditions, into another by the least deformation. He believes that such least deformation may be obtained without making a linear combination of linear and angular squared errors.

     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.     

Seagrass importance for a small-scale fishery in the tropics: The need for seascape management

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) in tropical seascapes (mosaics of interconnected mangroves, seagrasses and corals) are crucial for food and income. However, management is directed mostly to corals and mangroves. This research analyzes the importance of seagrasses compared to adjacent ecosystems in Chwaka Bay, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Using fish landings; the study investigated: location of fishing effort, fish production (biomass and species), and monetary benefits (aggregated value and per capita income). Seagrasses were the most visited grounds providing highest community benefits. Per capita benefits were equivalent to those from corals and mangroves. All three habitats provided income just above extreme poverty levels; however catches from seagrass appeared more stable. Seagrass are key ecosystems supporting SSF and protection and management are urgently needed. Adoption of a seascape approach considering all ecosystems underpinning SSF and the social aspects of fishing and a shift in emphasis from pure conservation to sustainable resource management would be desirable.     

Revisiting wintertime cold air intrusions at the east of the Andes: propagating features from subtropical Argentina to Peruvian Amazon and relationship with large-scale circulation patterns

This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges that propagates northward along the eastern flank of the Andes from subtropical to tropical South America analysing wintertime in situ daily minimum temperature observations from Argentina, Bolivia and Peru and ERA-40 reanalysis over the 1975–2001 period. Cold surges usually last 2 or 3 days but are generally less persistent in the southern La Plata basin compared to tropical regions. On average, three to four cold surges are reported each year. Our analysis reveals that 52 % of cold episodes registered in the south of La Plata basin propagate northward to the northern Peruvian Amazon at a speed of around 20 m s^?1. In comparison to cold surges that do not reach the tropical region, we demonstrate that these cold surges are characterized, before they reach the tropical region, by a higher occurrence of a specific circulation pattern associated to southern low-level winds progression toward low latitudes combined with subsidence and dry condition in the middle and low troposphere that reinforce the cold episode through a radiative effect. Finally, the relationship between cold surges and atmosphere dynamics is illustrated for the two most severe cold intrusions that reached the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon in the last 20 years.     

Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin

The sustainability of social-ecological systems depends on river flows being maintained within a range to which those systems are adapted. In order to determine the extent of this natural range of variation, we assess ecological flow thresholds and the occurrence of potentially damaging flood events to society in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra river basin. The ecological flow threshold was calculated using twenty-two ‘Range of Variability (RVA)’ parameters, considering the range between?±?1 standard deviation from the mean of the natural flow. Damaging flood events were calculated using flood frequency analysis of Annual Maxima series and using the flood classification of Bangladesh. The climate change impacts on future river flow were calculated by using a weighted ensemble analysis of twelve global circulation models (GCMs) outputs driving a large-scale hydrologic model. The simulated climate change induced altered flow regime of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin was then investigated and compared with the calculated threshold flows. The results demonstrate that various parameters including the monthly mean of low flow (January, February and March) and high flow (June, July and August) periods, the 7-day average minimum flow, and the yearly maximum flow will exceed the threshold conditions by 1956–1995 under the business-as-usual A1B and A2 future scenarios. The results have a number of policy level implications for government agencies of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin, specifically for Bangladesh. The calculated thresholds may be used as a good basis for negotiations with other riparian countries of the basin. The methodological approach presented in this study can be applied to other river basins and provide a useful basis for transboundary water resources management.     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.     

Robust numerical implementation of a 3D rate-dependent model for reservoir geomechanical simulations

A 3D elasto-plastic rate-dependent model for rock mechanics is formulated and implemented into a Finite Element (FE) numerical code. The model is based on the approach proposed by Vermeer and Neher (A soft soil model that accounts for creep. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium “Beyond 2000 in Computational Geotechnics,” pages 249-261, 1999). An original strain-driven algorithm with an Inexact Newton iterative scheme is used to compute the state variables for a given strain increment.The model is validated against laboratory measurements, checked on a simplified test case, and used to simulate land subsidence due to groundwater and hydrocarbon production. The numerical results prove computationally effective and robust, thus allowing for the use of the model on real complex geological settings.