Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Strengths and limitations of MST radar measurements of middle-atmosphere winds

Radars have been used successfully for many years to measure atmospheric motions over a wide range of altitudes, from ground level up to heights of several hundred kilometres into the ionosphere. In this paper we particularly wish to concentrate on the accuracy of these measurements for winds in the middle atmosphere (i.e. 10–100–km altitude). We begin by briefly reviewing the literature relating to comparisons between radar methods and other techniques. We demonstrate where the radar data are most and least reliable and then, in parallel with a discussion about the basic principles of the method, discuss why these different regimes have the different accuracies and precisions they do. This discussion is used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of radar methods. Issues like radar volume, aspect sensitivity, gravity wave effects and scatterer intermittency in producing wind biases, and the degree by which the intermittent generation of scatterers at quasi-random points in space could skew the radar measurements, are all considered. We also investigate the possibility that MF radar techniques can be contaminated by E-region scatter to heights as low as 92–95–km altitude (i.e. up to 8–10 km below the ionospheric peak echo). Within all these comments, however, we also recognize that radar methods still represent powerful techniques which have an important future at all levels of the atmosphere.     

Effects of convection instability due to incompatibility between ocean dynamics and surface forcings

The study demonstrates that an incompatibility between a surface temperature climatology and a given ocean model, into which the climatology is assimilated via Haney restoration, can cause model ocean climate drift and interdecadal oscillations when the ocean is switched to a weaker restoration. This is made using an idealized Atlantic Ocean model driven by thermal and wind forcing only. Initially, the temperature climatology is forcefully assimilated into the model, and an implied heat flux field is diagnosed. During this stage any incompatibility is suppressed. The restoring boundary condition is then switched to a new forcing consisting of a part of the diagnosed flux and a part of the restoring forcing in such a way that at the moment of the switching the heat flux is identical to that prior to the switching. Under this new forcing condition, the incompatibility becomes manifest, causing changes in convection patterns, and producing drift and interdecadal oscillations. The mechanisms are described.     

Observations of flux rope – associated particle bursts with GEOTAIL in the distant tail

Geotail energetic particle, magnetic field data and plasma observations (EPIC, MGF and CPI experiments) have been examined for a number of energetic particle bursts in the distant tail (120Re < |X_GSM| < 130 Re), associated with moving magnetic field structures, following substorm onsets. The features obtained from this data analysis are consistent with the distant magnetotail dynamics determined first by ISEE3 observations and explained in terms of the neutral line model. At the onset of the bursts, before plasma sheet entrance, energetic electrons appear as a field-aligned beam flowing in the tailward direction, followed by anisotro-pic ions. Within the flux rope region, suprathermal ions exhibit a convective anisotropy, which allows determination of the plasma flow velocity, assuming that the anisotropy arises from the Compton-Getting effect. The velocities thus determined in the plasma sheet are estimated to be 200–650 km/s, and compare favourably with the velocities derived from the CPI electron and proton experiment. The estimated length of magnetic field structures varies between 28 and 56 Re and depends on the strength of the westward electrojet intensification. Finally, the three structures reported here show clear magnetic field signatures of flux rope topology. The existence of a strong magnetic field aligned approximately along the Y-axis and centred on the north-to-south excursion of the field, and the bipolar signature in both By and/or Bz components, is consistent with the existence of closed field lines extending from Earth and wrapping around the core of the flux rope structure.     

Effect of Rigid PVC Bailer Contact on Detection of Pesticides in Water Samples

A field experiment was conducted to examine the effect of short-term (one minute) contact of pesticide-laden water with a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) bailer on quantitative laboratory measurements of seven pesticide concentrations in distilled water samples subsequently decanted from the bailer. Pesticides were tested at two initial concentrations (low. based on current FPA maximum contaminant levels, or MCL: and high, based on a multiple of approximately lour times the MCL). Pesticide species included bromoxynil, diclofop-m, dimethoate. MCPA, methyl parathion, propiconazole, and trifluralin. Dimethoate recoveries were poor for all treatments. For all other pesticides there was no systematic difference between pesticide concentrations measured before and after bailer contact. Effectiveness of bailer decontamination treatments consisting of distilled water rinse alone was related to water solubility (S) for each species. Distilled water samples decanted from a rigid PVC bailer following initial bailer contact with pesticide-spiked water, and after the bailer had been cleaned with a single distilled water rinse, had measured pesticide concentrations of less than 2 percent of the pesticide concentration in the initial pesticide-spiked water, regardless of S. A single distilled water rinse effectively removed all trace of contaminants having S> 500 mg/L. Multiple distilled water rinses, and multiple distilled water rinses followed by 15 bailings of a well, effectively removed all trace of contaminants having S> 50 mg/L. Below threshold S, cleaning effectiveness decreased as a power function of S.     

Relationship of Avalonian and Cadomian terranes to Grenville and Pan-African events

Suturing of the supercontinent Rodinia in the Grenville event (˜ 1000 Ma) was followed by rifting in the late Proterozoic (˜ 800-700 Ma), reorganization to Gondwana in the Pan-African (˜ 700-500 Ma) and further accretion to develop Pangea at the end of the Paleozoic. One of the Rodinian rifts followed part of the Grenville suture, it produced the margin of eastern North America and southern Baltica and the contrasting margin of west Gondwana in present South America. The Paleozoic accretionary wedge against the Grenville-age margin of North America and Baltica contains Avalonian/Cadomian terranes that exhibit Pan-African erogenic events ± sediments apparently developed while the terranes were in or near Gondwana. These terranes carry lower-Paleozoic fauna (Acado-Baltic) that are not indigenous to North America and Baltica.U---Pb zircon ages range from 1500-1000 Ma in Grenville terranes and from 800–500 Ma with minor inheritance in Avalonian terranes; they are generally much older in Cadomian terranes, implying very little resetting during Pan-African events. T_DM ages are generally 2000–1200 Ma in Grenville terranes, 1300–600 Ma in Avalonian terranes and 2000–1200 in Cadomian terranes. These summary data show that: (1) the Grenville orogenic event produced almost no juvenile crust; (2) the Avalonian terranes of North America contain crust that evolved primarily in the late Proterozoic, possibly as a mixture of juvenile Pan-African material and Grenville or slightly older material; (3) the Cadomian terranes of Europe consist of old (middle-Proterozoic to Archean) crust with minor juvenile Pan-African material. The Avalonian terranes apparently evolved near, and partly on, the Grenville-age crust now in South America during the intense orogeny associated with rotation of Gondwana away from North America. The Cadomian terranes of Europe, however, appear to be fragments of other parts of Gondwana, probably West Africa.     

Simulation studies of processes associated with stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) in the ionosphere

Results of numerical simulation studies of processes associated with Stimulated Electromagnetic Emission (SEE) produced during ionospheric heating experiments are presented. A one-dimensional magnetized electrostatic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation model with uniform plasma density is used to investigate electrostatic wave generation in the region where the pump frequency ω₀ approximately equals the upper hybrid frequency ω_uh. In particular, the simulation plasma is driven with a uniform oscillating electric field to represent the long wavelength pump wave and power spectra of the electrostatic waves produced are taken. The pump wave frequency and amplitude are varied to consider the effects on the simulation power spectrum. The upper hybrid frequency in the model is varied through harmonics of the electron cyclotron frequency Ω_ce to consider the effects of stepping the pump frequency through cyclotron harmonics. The power spectrum from the simulation plasma is richly structured. The resulting power spectra show sidebands upshifted and downshifted from the pump frequency by multiples of the lower hybrid frequency ω_lh. The structure of the spectrum is highly sensitive to the proximity of the upper hybrid frequency to the cyclotron harmonic frequencies.     

Effect of scallop shells and sediment grain size on phytoplankton flux to the bed

A flume study was made of bed skin friction and phytoplankton (Thalassiosira weissf ogii) deposition about a sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) mimic on a coarse (mean grain dia. =1200 μm), medium (615 μm) and fine (170 μm) quarry sand. Bed skin friction immediately upstream, and at one shell diameter downstream of the mimic was 1.2–2.4 times higher than ambient values (8.1 × 10⁻² Pa). Directly downstream of the mimic there was a region of near-zero skin friction. Bed diatom density was correlated with changes in skin friction; after 21 h, cell densities were 36–87% greater in the regions of high skin friction upstream and downstream of scallop than in control experiments. The pattern of bed diatom density about the scallop was similar in the coarse and medium sands, but deposition to the fine bed was not affected by the mimic. Diatom density was significantly correlated with grain diameter; deposition in the coarse bed was 2.3 times higher than in the medium sand, and 7.4 times higher than in the fine sand. A field experiment confirmed that the coarse sand was a greater sink of phytoplankton pigment than the fine sand. Previous studies and scaling arguments suggest that the differences in bed diatom density were controlled by the magnitude of interfacial solute fluxes. Regions of high skin friction about the mimic increased the porewater exchange, resulting in greater concentrations of diatoms retained within the bed. Similarly, the more permeable coarse sand would have a greater rate of porewater exchange than the fine sand, explaining the higher bed diatom density. Differences in the predicted volume of interstitial void space as a function of grain size closely matched the observed differences in bed diatom density. Results suggest that alteration of boundary layer flows by centimetre scale topography such as scallops, increases the flux of particulate organic matter toward the bed, but whether it is retained within the bed, and thus made available to the benthos is dependent on the sediment granularity.