Temporal variations in productivity and planktonic ecological structure in the East Sea (Japan Sea) since the last glaciation

We investigated the biogenic components (biogenic opal, calcium carbonate, and organic carbon) of the marine sediments in core TY99PC18 recovered from the southeastern part of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea (Japan Sea). Our results indicate that primary productivity by diatoms increased after the last glaciation (15,000 ¹⁴C years b.p.) probably because of the onset of vertical mixing of seawater and nutrient supply from the deep water. Between 5,000 and 10,000 ¹⁴C years b.p. a shift in the dominant primary producer, i.e. from diatoms to coccolithophores, coincides with decreased productivity, which could be related to the influx of warm, low-nutrient waters at that time. During the late Holocene (after 5,000 ¹⁴C years b.p.) the productivity of diatoms increased once more probably due to renewed ventilation and vertical mixing.     

Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow‐fed and glacier‐fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: statistical downscaling of global climate model projections

Climate change due to global warming is a public concern in Central Asia. Because of specific orography and climate conditions, the republic of Tajikistan is considered as the main glacial center of Central Asia. In this study, regional climate change impacts in the two large basins of Tajikistan, Pyanj and Vaksh River basins located in the upstream sector of the Amu Darya River basin are analysed. A statistical regression method with model output statistics corrections using the ground observation data, Willmott archived dataset and GSMaP satellite driven dataset, was developed and applied to the basins to downscale the Global Climate Model Projections at a 0.1‐degree grid and to assess the regional climate change impacts at subbasin scale. It was found that snow and glacier melting are of fundamental importance for the state of the future water resources and flooding at the target basins since the air temperature had a clearly increasing trend toward the future. It was also found that the snowfall will decrease, but the rainfall will increase because of the gradual increase in the air temperature. Such changes may result in an increase in flash floods during the winter and the early spring, and in significant changes in the hydrological regime during a year in the future. Furthermore, the risks of floods in the target basins may be slightly increasing because of the increase in the frequencies and magnitudes of high daily precipitation and the increase in the rapid snowmelt with high air temperatures toward the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A probabilistic model for real‐time flood warning based on deterministic flood inundation mapping

Deterministic flood inundation mapping is valuable for the investigation of detailed flood depth and extent. However, when these data are used for real‐time flood warning, uncertainty arises while encountering the difficulties of timely response, message interpretation and performance evaluation that makes statistical analysis necessary. By incorporating deterministic flood inundation map outputs statistically by means of logistic regression, this paper presents a probabilistic real‐time flood warning model determining region‐based flood probability directly from rainfall, being efficient in computation, clear in message, and valid in physical meaning. The calibration and validation of the probabilistic model show a satisfactory overall correctness rate, with the hit rate far surpassing the false alarm rate in issuing flood warning for historical events. Further analyses show that the probabilistic model is effective in evaluating the level of uncertainty lying within flood warning which can be reduced by several techniques proposed in order to improve warning performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SWAT application to estimate design runoff curve number for South Korean conditions

Runoff estimations based on the standard USDA–NRCS curve number (CN) table without calibration have a tendency to give inaccurate results when the CN values are applied in South Korea which has many high slope watersheds and that has a continental monsoon climate. Particularly for the design flood estimation, accurately calibrated CN values are required because the estimated peak flow is very sensitive to the selection of CN. However, the lack of flood data makes it difficult to calibrate and assign runoff CNs to Korean watersheds. Even if sufficient data are available to estimate CN values, it is also difficult to obtain the direct flows by separating base flows from total runoff hydrographs due to the temporal irregularity of rainfall events and the resulting complex pattern of runoff. Therefore, an alternative method for estimating CNs needs to be developed to overcome these issues. The purpose of this study is to present a method for estimating runoff CNs using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model which can take into account watershed heterogeneities such as climate conditions, land use and soil types. The proposed CN estimation method uses the simulated flow data by SWAT instead of using measured flow data. This method has advantages in estimating CN values spatially for each subbasin division considering watershed characteristics. The use of daily data can reduce the sensitivity to the abnormality that is commonly involved in flow data with a small time scale. The SWAT‐based CN estimation method, combined with the asymptotic CN method, was applied to the Chungju dam watershed in South Korea. A regression equation was then developed from this approach, which was used to estimate CN values that decrease exponentially as rainfall amounts increase and that converge to 60·6 and 79·4 without and with considering subsurface lateral flow, respectively. Furthermore, the CN values for the antecedent moisture conditions were determined using the probabilistic approach. The CN associated with the 50% probability for the Chungju dam watershed is 87·8 which can be taken to be representative of antecedent moisture condition (AMC) II. The CN_I and CN_III associated with 90% and 10% probabilities are 78·9 and 94·1, respectively. The estimated CN_II = 87·8 differs markedly from the geographic information system (GIS)‐based CN 65·0, which implies that the standard USDA–NRCS CN method should be calibrated to the studied area of interest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of rain infiltration on the stability of compacted soil slopes

Stability analyses for a homogeneous compacted embankment were undertaken considering infiltration of water into the embankment. The analyses include several different practical scenarios: (i) saturated condition, (ii) ponding (or runoff) along with saturated condition, (iii) short term analysis for unsaturated conditions, and (iv) long term analysis for unsaturated conditions. The appropriate shear strength parameters of the compacted soil required for analyzing different practical scenarios were determined using conventional and modified triaxial shear apparatus. The results of the study show that typically shallow circular failures above water front occur due to infiltration rather than the conventional infinite slope type failures.     

Characterization of cholinesterases in marbled sole, Limanda yokohamae, and their inhibition in vitro by the fungicide iprobenfos

Cholinesterases (ChEs) have been characterized in marbled sole (Limanda yokohamae) for use as a possible biomarker of pollution exposure. In brain, ChEs existed almost exclusively (>95%) as acetylcholinesterase (AChE) whereas in muscle, about 20-30% of ChE activity was in the form of butyrylcholinesterase (BChE; pseudocholinesterase). Acetylthiocholine and butyrylthiocholine (identified in mammalian studies as diagnostic substrates for AChE and BChE respectively) were hydrolyzed mainly, but not exclusively, by these enzymes. The inhibitors BW284C51 and iso-OMPA (identified in mammalian studies as diagnostic inhibitors of AChE and BChE respectively) were not specific for these enzymes in marbled sole. Brain AChE and muscle AChE and BChE were characterized in terms of their kinetic properties (KM etc.) and optimal conditions (substrate concentration, protein concentration, pH etc.) were established to allow routine assays of ChE activity to proceed under pseudo-first order conditions. The sensitivity of ChEs to a locally significant pesticide, iprobenfos (IBP; kitazin) was established in terms of IC50 concentrations. Brain AChE was relatively insensitive to IBP, but muscle AChE and BChE were sensitive to IBP concentrations in the high nM range. However, ambient IBP concentrations in Korean coastal waters are usually not high enough to cause detectable ChE inhibition in this species.     

Application of a fuzzy operator to susceptibility estimations of coal mine subsidence in Taebaek City,Korea

Quantitative determination of locations vulnerable to ground subsidence at mining regions is necessary for effective prevention. In this paper, a method of constructing subsidence susceptibility maps based on fuzzy relations is proposed and tested at an abandoned underground coal mine in Korea. An advantage of fuzzy combination operators over other methods is that the operation is mathematically and logically easy to understand and its implementation to GIS software is simple and straightforward. A certainty factor analysis was used for estimating the relative weight of eight major factors influencing ground subsidence. The relative weight of each factor was then converted into a fuzzy membership value and integrated as a subsidence hazard index using fuzzy combination operators, which produced coal mine subsidence susceptibility maps. The susceptibility maps were compared with the reported ground subsidence areas, and the results showed high accuracy between our prediction and the actual subsidence. Based on the root mean square error and accuracy in terms of success rates, fuzzy γ-operator with a low γ value and fuzzy algebraic product operator, specifically, are useful for ground subsidence prediction. Comparing the results of a fuzzy γ-operator and a conventional logistic regression model, the performance of the fuzzy approach is comparative to that of a logistic regression model with improved computational. A field survey done in the area supported the method’s reliability. A combination of certainty factor analysis and fuzzy relations with a GIS is an effective method to determine locations vulnerable to coal mine subsidence.