Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

A roadmap for a dedicated Earth Science Grid platform

Due to its intensive data processing and highly distributed organization, the multidisciplinary Earth Science applications community is uniquely positioned for the uptake and exploitation of Grid technologies. Currently Enabling Grids for E-sciencE, and other large Grid infrastructures are already deployed and capable of operational services. So far however, the adoption and exploitation of Grid technology throughout the Earth Science community has been slower than expected. The Dissemination and Exploitation of GRids in Earth sciencE project, proposed by the European Commission to assist and accelerate this process in a number of different ways, had between its main goals the creation of a roadmap towards Earth Science Grid platform. This paper presents the resulting roadmap.     

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地下圆形衬砌隧道对沿线地震动的影响(II):数值结果

利用地下圆形衬砌隧道对入射平面P波和SV波散射级数解答，定量分析了入射波长、入射角度、隧道直径、衬砌刚度等因素对沿线地表位移放大作用的影响。计算结果表明，当入射频率较低时，地下隧道的存在对地表位移幅值影响不大；而当入射频率较高时，地表位移幅值可以达到无隧道情况的4．5倍以上；衬砌情况下地表位移幅值可以高出非衬砌情况的87．8％。建议在地铁的规划设计中考虑地下隧道的建设对隧道沿线设计地震动的影响。     

Mono- and dicyclic unsaturated triterpenoid hydrocarbons in sediments from Lake Masoko (Tanzania) widely extend the botryococcene family

A mixture of C₃₃–C₃₇ botryococcenes and partially reduced derivatives was isolated from ca. 32,000 year old sediment from Lake Masoko, a freshwater crater lake in the Rungwe Range area (Tanzania). Botryococcenes and derivatives accounted for 246 μg/g dry sediment and for >92% of the hydrocarbon fraction; 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and mass spectrometry allowed the structure of the dominant botryococcene (43% of hydrocarbon fraction) to be established, after purification using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The compound is a novel tetraunsaturated dicyclic C₃₄ botryococcene and is named C₃₄ masokocene. Overall, the structures of six other novel botryococcenes and four partially reduced derivatives were tentatively assigned. The structures of the new biomarkers, three dicyclic C₃₄–C₃₆ botryococcenes (or masokocenes) and seven monocyclic C₃₄–C₃₇ analogues are discussed along with their biosynthetic relationship. The high abundance of such polyunsaturated compounds preserved in 32,000 year old sediment from the lake indicates an aquatic ecosystem dominated at the time by the green alga Botryococcus braunii, as well very good preservation of the organic matter.     

Global detailed geoid computation and model analysis

This paper presents a survey of recent work on the gravimetric geoid. The gravity models considered are those published in the past few years by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) and the Ohio State University (OSU). Comparisons and analyses have been carried out through the ose of detailed gravimetric geoids which we have computed by combining the above-mentioned models with a set of 26 000, 1^ox1^o mean free air gravity anomalies. The accuracy of the detailed gravimetric geoid computed using the most recent Goddard Earth Model (GEM-6) in conjunction with the set 1^ox1^o mean free air gravity anomalies is assessed at 2 m on the continents of North America, Europe And Australia, 2 to 5 m in the North-East Pacific and North Atlantic areas and 5 to 10 m in other areas where surface gravity data are sparse. Rms differences between this detailed geoid and the detailed geoids computed using the other satellite gravity fields in conjunction with same set of surface data range from 3 to 7 m. The maximum differences in all cases occurred in the Southern Hemisphere where surface data and satellite observations are sparse. These differences exhibited wavelengths of approximately 30^o to 50^o in longitude. Detailed geoidal heights were also computed with models truncated to 12th degree and order as well as 8th degree and order. This truncation resulted in a reduction of the rms differences to a maximum of 5 m. Comparisons have been made with the astrogeodetic data of Rice (United States), Bomford (Europe), and Mather (Australia) and also with geoidal heights from satellite solutions for geocentric station coordinates in North America and the Caribbean.     

Heavy metals in nearshore sediments of Kalpakkam,southeast coast of India

Kalpakkam, a tiny fishing hamlet dotting the east coast, halfway between Chennai and Pondicherry has become prominent due to the Madras Atomic Power Station. The present study aims at assessing the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Fe) from 12 stations along the inner shelf of Bay of Bengal, India, during pre-monsoon (PRM), monsoon, and post-monsoon (POM) seasons. The order of occurrence of the metals in sediments of Kalpakkam is Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Pb > Cd (excluding Fe since unit is in %) and exhibits a unique seasonal pattern with the highest values (average) during POM except for Cd which shows highest (average) concentration during PRM. In order to determine the sample association according to their geochemical composition and their granulometric characteristics, a correlation matrix was generated and sediment pollution indices viz., sediment enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index were computed. The results confirm anthropogenic input of Cd to nearshore sediments of Kalpakkam. Sources of Cd can be attributed to dredging activities at Edaiyur, direct dumping and sewage sludge from anthropogenic activities, which reach the study area through the Buckingham Canal opening at the backwaters—Sadras and Edaiyur, and extreme use of antifouling paints by fishing trawlers.     

New Cadanav methodology for quantitative rock fall hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale

Rock fall hazard zoning is a challenging yet necessary task to be accomplished for planning an appropriate land use in mountainous areas. Methodologies currently adopted for elaborating zoning maps do not provide satisfactory results though, due to uncertainties and related assumptions characterising hazard assessment. The new Cadanav methodology, presented in this paper, aims at improving quantitative hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale, by reducing uncertainties mainly related to the technique for combining rock fall intensity and frequency of occurrence. Starting from available information on rock fall failure frequency and trajectory simulation results, the procedure merges in a strict way temporal frequency, probability of reach and energy data and evaluates the hazard degree by means of “hazard curves”. These curves are described at each point of the slope by a series of energy–return period couples representing the hazardous conditions which may possibly affect that location. The new Cadanav methodology is here detailed and compared to its original version. Hazard zoning results are illustrated along two different 2D slope profiles, for linear homogeneous cliff configurations, and according to the Swiss intensity–frequency diagram for rock fall hazard zoning. However, the procedure can be easily used with any other intensity–frequency diagram prescribed in national guidelines and, additionally, extended to problems involving 3D topographies.     

Differential aerobic and anaerobic oxidation of hydrocarbon gases discharged at mud volcanoes in the Nile deep-sea fan

The present study investigates hydrocarbon oxidation processes at Isis and Amon mud volcanoes (MV’s), in the eastern Nile deep-sea fan. In the water column, molecular and carbon isotopic signatures of light hydrocarbons indicate that gases rapidly dissolve in seawater and are partially oxidized.In the upper sediments, anaerobic oxidation of the light hydrocarbons takes place, as clearly shown by their molecular and isotopic composition. These processes lead to the presence of a distinct Sulfate-Hydrocarbon Interface at 120-145 cm and 20-50 cm below the seafloor, for Isis and Amon MV’s, respectively. In contrast to processes occurring in the water column, a clear preferential oxidation of methane, propane and n-butane over ethane and i-butane is observed in the anoxic sediments. Furthermore, for the first time, fractionation factors have been determined for the anaerobic oxidation of propane and butane, being respectively −4.80‰ and −0.7‰ for δ¹³C, and −43.3‰ for δ²H of propane.     

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).