Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

Rebuttal to: “A bibliometric review on carbon cycling research during 1993–2013” by Zhi et al. (Environ Earth Sci 2015, 74(7): 6065–6075)

A research paper’s contribution exists not only in its originality and creativity but also in its continuity and development for research that follows. The reference section can play a key role to researchers who are interested in a paper’s statement or who would like to follow the study or find useful information from the paper. This section is as important as the core of a paper; however, it was easily to be ignored by the author. This comment offered information for citing original idea of methods, figures, and tables which Zhi et al. (Environ Earth Sci 74(7):6065–6075, 2015) used. It is also suggested that an author not only must be creative but also must be careful while writing in order to publish more valuable and papers more worthy of reading.     

A new record of pasiphaeid shrimp of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pasiphaea</Emphasis> (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea) in Korean waters

A single specimen of the pelagic shrimps, Pasiphaea japonica Omori, 1976 (Pasiphaeidae) collected in the southeastern waters of Korea is described and illustrated. Although this species occurs widely in the Indo-West Pacific including the Japanese coast of the East/Japan Sea and the middle and southern parts of the East China Sea, this is the first record of the species and the genus in Korean waters. The species is distinguished from other congeners by the following combination of characteristics: non-carinate dorsal sixth abdominal somite with a terminal tooth, rudimentary pleurobranch on the eighth thoracic somite, merus of the first pereopod with more than eight spines, and almost entirely transparent white color.     

Field Evaluation of the Vertical Bearing Capacity of a Screw Pretensioned Spun High-Strength Concrete Pile

This study has evaluated the vertical bearing capacity by conducting static load tests for noise-free and vibration-free screw pretensioned spun high-strength concrete (PHC) piles installed using two different methods (end-squirting shoe and pre-boring methods). Vertical bearing capacity differences seem to occur due to the displacement of soils near the external circumference of a pile, depending on the installation method. A method by which to evaluate the bearing capacity of screw concrete piles is suggested by considering the equations that already have been used to calculate the bearing capacity of piles. Based on static load tests and analysis, the pile installed using the end-squirting shoe method was assumed to be a bored pile and it was reasonable to use the equation proposed by the Japanese Geotechnical Society. At the same time, the pile installed using the pre-boring method was deemed a low soil displacement pile and so it was reasonable to apply the equations proposed for calculating the bearing capacity of the driven pile suggested by the Architectural Institute of Japan.