Are response function representations of the global carbon cycle ever interpretable?

Response function models are often used to represent the behaviour of complex, high order global carbon cycle (GCC) and climate models in applications which require short model run times. Although apparently black-box, these response function models need not necessarily be entirely opaque, but instead may also convey useful insights into the properties of the parent model or process. By exploiting a transfer function (TF) framework to analyse the Lenton GCC model, this paper attempts to demonstrate that response function representations of GCC models can sometimes also provide structural information on the parent model from which they are identified and calibrated. We take a fifth-order TF identified from the impulse response of the Lenton model atmospheric burden, and decompose this to show how it can be re-expresses in a generic five-box form in sympathy with the structure of the parent model.     

Wind sensitivity of the inter-ocean heat exchange

An idealised two-basin model is used to investigate the impact of the wind field on the heat exchange between the ocean basins. The scalar potential of the divergent component of the horizontal heat flux is computed, which gives a 'coarse-grained' image of the surface heat flux that captures the large-scale structure of the horizontal heat transport. Further the non-divergent component is examined, as well as the meridional heat transport and the temperature–latitude overturning stream function. A sensitivity analysis examines the heat transport response to changes in wind stress at different latitudes. The results are compared with results from an eddy-permitting global circulation model. The westerly wind stress over the Southern Ocean has two effects: a local reduction of the surface heat loss in response to the equatorward surface Ekman drift, and a global re-routing of the heat export from the Indo-Pacific. Without wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific heat export is released to the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean, and the net heat transport in the southern Atlantic is southward. With wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific export enters the Atlantic through the Aghulas and is released in the Northern Hemisphere. The easterlies enhance the poleward heat transport in both basins.     

Leakage and spillover effects of forest management on carbon storage: theoretical insights from a simple model

Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies. We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined. We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.     

Interannual variability of NDVI and bird species diversity in Kenya

Species richness, or simply the number of species in a given area, is commonly used as an important indicator of biological diversity. Spatial variability in species richness has been postulated to depend upon environmental factors such as climate and climatic variability, which in turn may affect net primary productivity. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been shown to be correlated with climatic variables including rainfall, actual evapotranspiration and net primary productivity. To determine factors favoring high species richness, we examined the relationship between interannual NDVI variables and species richness of birds at a quarter degree scale (55 × 55 km). Results revealed a strong positive correlation between species richness and maximum average NDVI. Conversely, species richness showed negative correlation with standard deviation of maximum NDVI and the coefficient of variation. Though these relationships are indirect, they apparently operate through the green vegetation cover. Understanding such relationships can help in mapping and monitoring biological diversity, as well as in estimating changes in species richness in response to global climatic change.     

Assimilation of image sequences in numerical models

Understanding and forecasting the evolution of geophysical fluids is a major scientific and societal challenge. Forecasting algorithms should take into account all the available information on the considered dynamic system. The variational data assimilation (VDA) technique combines all these informations in an optimality system (O.S.) in a consistent way to reconstruct the model inputs. VDA is currently used by the major meteorological centres. During the last two decades about 30 satellites were launched to improve the knowledge of the atmosphere and of the oceans. They continuously provide a huge amount of data that are still underused by numerical forecast systems. In particular, the dynamic evolution of certain meteorological or oceanic features (such as eddies, fronts, etc.) that the human vision may easily detect is not optimally taken into account in realistic applications of VDA. Image Assimilation in VDA framework can be performed using 'pseudo-observation' techniques: they provide apparent velocity fields, which are assimilated as classical observations. These measurements are obtained by certain external procedures, which are decoupled with the considered dynamic system. In this paper, we suggest a more consistent approach, which directly incorporates image sequences into the O.S.     

Vertical profiling of Saharan dust with Raman lidars and airborne HSRL in southern Morocco during SAMUM

Three ground-based Raman lidars and an airborne high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) were operated during SAMUM 2006 in southern Morocco to measure height profiles of the volume extinction coefficient, the extinction-to-backscatter ratio and the depolarization ratio of dust particles in the Saharan dust layer at several wavelengths. Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometer observations and radiosoundings of meteorological parameters complemented the ground-based activities at the SAMUM station of Ouarzazate. Four case studies are presented. Two case studies deal with the comparison of observations of the three ground-based lidars during a heavy dust outbreak and of the ground-based lidars with the airborne lidar. Two further cases show profile observations during satellite overpasses on 19 May and 4 June 2006. The height resolved statistical analysis reveals that the dust layer top typically reaches 4–6 km height above sea level (a.s.l.), sometimes even 7 km a.s.l.. Usually, a vertically inhomogeneous dust plume with internal dust layers was observed in the morning before the evolution of the boundary layer started. The Saharan dust layer was well mixed in the early evening. The 500 nm dust optical depth ranged from 0.2–0.8 at the field site south of the High Atlas mountains, Ångström exponents derived from photometer and lidar data were between 0–0.4. The volume extinction coefficients (355, 532 nm) varied from 30–300 Mm⁻¹ with a mean value of 100 Mm⁻¹ in the lowest 4 km a.s.l.. On average, extinction-to-backscatter ratios of 53–55 sr (±7–13 sr) were obtained at 355, 532 and 1064 nm.     

Comment on "Air pollution and precipitation suppression over SE Australia: critical review of evidence presented by Rosenfeld (2000) and Rosenfeld (2006)" by Greg Ayers

Rosenfeld (2000, hereafter R00), in applying new satellite methodology to analyse case studies in Southeastern Australia and elsewhere, provided evidence that urban and industrial air pollution can suppress precipitation from shallow clouds. He concluded that 'Air pollution must be an important factor in determining the precipitation amounts in the Snowy Mountains'. These satellite observations were the impetus for our proposed detailed follow-on research program to further validate and quantify these inferences, publicly offered in Rosenfeld et al. (2006, hereafter R06) and repeated here, thereby recognizing the remaining large uncertainties. In response, Ayers (2009, hereafter A09) attempts to deny the significance and validity of the observations of R00. His scientific arguments are refuted here. Furthermore, A09 wrote erroneously that 'a hypothesis that air pollution in the form of small particles has caused a secular decrease in precipitation over SE Australia was advanced by Rosenfeld (2000) , who concluded that the hypothesis was proven.' But R00 did not make such a claim, although this is a viable hypothesis that warrants testing (R06). In fact, R00 wrote: 'trend analyses of snow, winter temperature, and total winter rainfall for the period 1910–1991 showed statistically insignificant decreases… ( Duus, 1992 )'.     

An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part II: simulating subseasonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitutes a major source of potential predictability in the tropics. The majority of past seasonal prediction studies have concentrated on precipitation anomalies at the seasonal mean timescale. However, fields such as agriculture and water resource management require higher time frequency forecasts of precipitation variability. Regional climate models (RCMs), with their increased resolution, may offer one means of improving general circulation model forecasts of higher time frequency precipitation variability.
Part I of this study evaluated the ability of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA), forced by analysed boundary conditions, to simulate seasonal mean precipitation anomalies over the tropical Americas associated with ENSO variability. In this paper the same integrations are analysed, with the focus now on precipitation anomalies at subseasonal (pentad) timescales.
RCA simulates the climatological annual cycle of pentad-mean precipitation intensity quite accurately. The timing of the rainy season (onset, demise and length) is well simulated, with biases generally of less than 2 weeks. Changes in the timing and duration of the rainy season, associated with ENSO forcing, are also well captured. Finally, pentad-mean rainfall intensity distributions are simulated quite accurately, as are shifts in these distributions associated with ENSO forcing.