The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Meteorological and synoptic aspects of the formation and evolution of the Novorossiysk Bora

The genetic and synoptic classifications of the Novorossiysk Bora are created using the data of daily observations at the Novorossiysk meteorological station and other available synoptic information. Obtained are the quantitative criteria of these classifications, and on this base worked out are the basic scenarios of the generation and evolution of this dangerous phenomenon on the Black Sea coast of Russia. According to the genetic classification, the Bora was divided into four types: frontal, air-mass, monsoon, and gravity. Quantitative criteria worked out for each type can be used for the more accurate forecast of this destructive phenomenon near Novorossiysk. According to the synoptic classification, four classes were distinguished: Azores, North Atlantic, Siberian, and Arctic.     

Structural characteristics of zooplankton of the Shardarinskoe Reservoir and their use in water quality assessment

Data on the Shardarinskoe Reservoir are used to assess the indicator role of zooplankton community under unstable hydrological regime. The structural characteristics of zooplankton featured significant seasonal variations. The averaged indices characterized reservoir water quality at the level of mesotrophic and eutrophic water bodies. The possible use of cyclopidas to characterize toxic pollution of water is discussed.     

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley as a risk area

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley, granted the status of a World Heritage site, is well known for its unique inner narrow valley of Quaternary age with its historical legacy of numerous medieval castles and old towns. Less known is that this has always been a risk area of floods and gravitative mass movements. Up to the recent past, mainly ice floods caused enormous damage. The inhabitants of the valley were well aware that they lived in a risk area, but they had learned to handle the flood hazard. With the demise of ice floods over the last 40 years, due to climate change and because of the additional heating of the river water by power plants, the awareness of flood hazards has been much diminished, in contrast to that of potential damage by rockfalls and landslides which were also much feared in the past, though at the local level only. Still in the people’s memory is the Kaub catastrophe of March 10, 1876, when 28 persons were killed by a landslide. Nowadays, even minor rockfalls are a major threat, as they will affect the much-used traffic lines on both banks of the river, in particular the railroads. Therefore, since 2002, on behalf of German Rail (Deutsche Bahn, DB), all problematic slopes have been protected by costly steel-ring nets, although they are an aesthetic problem by UNESCO standards. The feeling of absolute safety created among the public is only subjective, though, as planners are well aware of. Moreover, the impact of modern climate change on slope stability is nearly unknown. Therefore, it is still necessary to develop a risk map for the narrow valley, with emphasis on gravitational hazards.     

Fault structures and their geoelectric parameters in the epicentral zone of the 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake (Gorny Altai) from resistivity data

This paper presents an integrated measurement technique based on DC methods (vertical electrical sounding, electrical resistivity tomography) which was used to identify faults and determine their geoelectric parameters in the western part of the Chuya basin. New information on the structure of the Chagan River valley located in the zone of the disastrous 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake has been obtained from the results of these methods. Geoelectric cross-sections of the sedimentary sequence and the upper part of the basement were obtained from VES data, showing the block structure of the study area. Electrical resistivity tomography sections confirm the presence of a major fault between basement blocks of different heights and indicate the presence of faults bounding the valley on its right side and in the southwestern part.