Long-term regional hurricane hazard analysis for wind and storm surge

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the long-term regional hurricane wind and storm surge hazard. The output is a relatively small set of hurricane scenarios that together represent the regional hazard. For each scenario, the method produces a hazard-consistent annual occurrence probability, and wind speeds and surge levels throughout the study area. These scenarios can be used for subsequent evacuation or loss estimation modeling. This optimization-based probabilistic scenario (OPS) method involves first simulating tens of thousands of candidate hurricane scenarios with wind speeds and approximate surge depths. A mixed-integer linear optimization is then used to select a subset of scenarios and assign hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities to each. Finally, a surge model is used to estimate accurate surge depths for the reduced set of events. The method considers the correlation between winds and surge depths and the spatial correlations of each; it is computationally efficient; and it makes explicit the tradeoff between the number of scenarios selected and the errors introduced by using a reduced set of events. A case study for Eastern North Carolina is presented in which a final set of 97 hurricanes provides unbiased results with errors small enough for many practical uses.     

Emission metrics under the 2 °C climate stabilization target

In multi-gas climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol one has to decide how to compare the emissions of different greenhouse gases. The choice of metric could have significant implications for mitigation priorities considered under the prospective negotiations for climate mitigation agreements. Several metrics have been proposed for this task with the Global Warming Potential (GWP) being the most common. However, these metrics have not been systematically compared to each other in the context of the 2 °C climate stabilization target. Based on a single unified modeling framework, we demonstrate that metric values span a wide range, depending on the metric structure and the treatment of the time dimension. Our finding confirms the basic salient point that metrics designed to represent different aspects of the climate and socio-economic system behave differently. Our result also reflects a complex interface between science and policy surrounding metrics. Thus, it is important to select or design a metric suitable for climate stabilization based on an interaction among practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.     

Estimating economic effects of changes in climate and water availability

Social, economic, and environmental systems can be vulnerable to disruptions in water supplies that are likely to accompany future climate changes. Coupled with the challenges of tightening environmental regulations, population growth, economic development and fiscal constraints water supply systems are being pushed beyond the limits of their design and capacity for maintenance. In this paper we briefly review key economic concepts, various economic measures and metrics, and methods to estimate the economic effects on water resources from water supply changes that could accompany climate change. We survey some of the recent empirical literature that focuses on estimates developed for U.S. watersheds at both national and regional scales. Reported estimates of potential damage and loss associated with climate and water supply changes that we observe are significant, though often the metrics vary and make valid and consistent direct cross-comparisons difficult. Whether in terms of changes in GDP or in terms of estimated changes in economic welfare based on associated changes in economic costs and benefits, both national and regional estimates suggest that governments and organizations incorporate prudent steps to assess vulnerabilities to plausible future water supply and demand scenarios and develop responsive adaptation strategies.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

Future climate of the Caribbean from a super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model

Present-day (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) simulations of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature are examined using data from the Meteorological Research Institute super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Analyses are performed over the 20-km model grid for (1) a main Caribbean basin, (2) sub-regional zones, and (3) specific Caribbean islands. Though the model’s topography underestimates heights over the eastern Caribbean, it captures well the present-day spatial and temporal variations of seasonal and annual climates. Temperature underestimations range from 0.1 °C to 2 °C with respect to the Japanese Reanalysis and the Climatic Research Unit datasets. The model also captures fairly well sub-regional scale variations in the rainfall climatology. End-of-century projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A1B scenario indicate declines in rainfall amounts by 10–20 % for most of the Caribbean during the early (May–July) and late (August–October) rainy seasons relative to the 1979–2003 baselines. The early dry season (November–January) is also projected to get wetter in the far north and south Caribbean by approximately 10 %. The model also projects a warming of 2–3 °C over the Caribbean region. Analysis of future climate extremes indicate a 5–10 % decrease in the simple daily precipitation intensity but no significant change in the number of consecutive dry days for Cuba, Jamaica, southern Bahamas, and Haiti. There is also indication that the number of hot days and nights will significantly increase over the main Caribbean basin.     

Changes in diatom assemblages since pre-industrial times in 40 reference lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (northwestern Ontario,Canada)

Diatom assemblages in recent versus pre-industrial sediments were examined in 40 relatively undisturbed lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA). The ELA region of northwestern Ontario receives low amounts of acidic deposition and the lakes have been minimally disturbed by watershed development or other human activities. Consequently, this region represents an important location to detect possible changes in lakes due to climate change. In over half of the lakes, planktonic taxa (especially Discostella stelligera) increased between 10 and 40% since pre-industrial times. Changes in diatom assemblages are consistent with taxa that would benefit from enhanced stratification and a longer ice-free season. We hypothesized that there should be a relationship between stratification and measured chemical and physical characteristics of the study lakes. Multiple correlation analysis was undertaken to see the relationship between planktonic taxa and D. stelligera since pre-industrial times and the physical and chemical characteristics of the study lakes. Lake depth was consistently identified as an important variable. The timing of the increase in planktonic taxa within cores from these lakes will be needed to rule out other possible regional changes that may also be occurring in the ELA region.     

Two‐stage polybaric formation of the new enriched,pyroxene‐oikocrystic,lherzolitic shergottite,NWA 7397

Northwest Africa (NWA) 7397 is a newly discovered, enriched, lherzolitic shergottite, the third described example of this group. This meteorite consists of two distinct textural lithologies (1) poikilitic—comprised of zoned pyroxene oikocrysts, with chadacrysts of chromite and olivine, and (2) nonpoikilitic—comprised of olivine, low‐Ca and high‐Ca pyroxene, maskelynite, and minor abundances of merrillite, spinel, ilmenite, and pyrrhotite. The constant Ti/Al ratios of pyroxene oikocrysts suggests initial crystallization of the poikilitic lithology at depth (equivalent to pressures of approximately 10 kbar), followed by crystallization of the nonpoikilitic lithology at shallower levels. Oxygen fugacity conditions become more oxidizing during crystallization ranging from fO₂ conditions of approximately QFM‐2 to QFM‐0.7. Magma calculated to be in equilibrium with the major rock‐forming minerals is LREE‐enriched relative to depleted or intermediate shergottites and has flat overall profiles. Therefore, we suggest that the parental magma for NWA 7397 had sampled an enriched, oxidized, Martian geochemical source, similar to that of other enriched basaltic and olivine‐phyric shergottites. We present a polybaric formation model for the lherzolitic shergottite NWA 7397, to account for the petrologic constraints. Three successive stages in the development of NWA 7397 are discussed (1) formation of a REE‐enriched parental magma from a distinct Martian mantle reservoir; (2) magma ponding and development of a staging chamber concomitant with initial crystallization of the poikilitic lithology; and (3) magma ascent to the near surface, with entrainment of cumulates from the staging chamber and subsequent crystallization of the nonpoikilitic lithology en route to the surface.     

Observing projects for small telescopes

Suggestions and examples are given for photometric and spectrographic programs with 0.5 - 1.0m telescopes, both at poor and at good sites. The importance is stressed of coordination between observers at sites spread over a region or around the world. As an example of the latter, the Whole Earth Telescope group and their successful observing programs are described.     

Ordovician faunas in mass-flow deposits, Southern Scotland

In the Ordovician Northern Belt of the Southern Uplands, basal volcanics (Arenig) are followed by cherts (Llanvirn-?Llandeilo), then by graptolite shales (Llandelio-Lower Caradoc), and finally by Caradoc greywackes. Within the greywackes (Kirkcolm Formation) are a number of occurrences of fossiliferous conglomerate and overlying mudstone; these can be traced along-strike for some 30 km. The conglomerates, and especially the mudstones, yield rich mid- Caradoc shelly assemblages; brachiopods (20 spp.)/ trilobites (14 spp.), gastropods, bivalves, bryozoans, and the first known Palaeozoic scleractiniamorph coral. These occurrences are interpreted as mass-flow deposits derived by downslope movement from a now-vanished shelf to the North, and may belong either to a single gigantic debris flow event, or to a series of smaller, but roughly contemporaneous flows. Strong faunal similarities to faunas at Girvan (western Scotland), and Tyrone (Northern Ireland), lying North of the Southern Upland Fault may suggest sinistral strike-slip movement of no more than a few hundred kilometres.