The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections

The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios published by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) continue to serve as a primary basis for assessing future climate change and possible response strategies. These scenarios were developed between 1996 and 1999 and sufficient time has now passed to make it worth examining their consistency with more recent data and projections. The comparison performed in this paper includes population, GDP, energy use, and emissions of CO₂, non-CO₂ gases and sulfur. We find the SRES scenarios to be largely consistent with historical data for the 1990–2000 period and with recent projections. Exceptions to this general observation include (1) in the long-term, relatively high population growth assumptions; in some regions, particularly in the A2 scenario; (2) in the medium-term, relatively high economic growth assumptions in the LAM (Latin America, Africa and Middle East) region in the A1 scenario; (3) in the short-term, CO₂ emissions projections in A1 that are somewhat higher than the range of current scenarios; and (4) substantially higher sulfur emissions in some scenarios than in historical data and recent projections. In conclusion, given the relatively small inconsistencies for use as global scenarios there seems to be no immediate need for a large-scale IPCC-led update of the SRES scenarios that is solely based on the SRES scenario performance vis-a-vis data for the 1990–2000 period and/or more recent projections. Based on reported findings, individual research teams could make, and in some cases already have made, useful updates of the scenarios.     

Conservation and community in the new South Africa: A case study of the Mahushe Shongwe Game Reserve

The idealization of natural landscapes and peoples during colonialism, coupled with the popularity of sustainable development in the postcolonial era, has contributed to the expansion of conservation planning throughout the African continent. Concerns surrounding the promotion of national and international conservation agendas at the expense of local livelihood needs have generated interest in community conservation projects that attempt to include local participation and knowledge in natural resource management. The early excitement associated with community conservation has waned in light of recent assessments that it has been unsuccessful in meeting its ecological and social goals. This parallels other research that suggests communities are understood in generic or homogenous ways that influence how these initiatives are understood. Using a case study of the Mahushe Shongwe Game Reserve, this paper evaluates how rural households access environmental and economic resources to produce livelihoods, and how these access patterns impact their views of the project. It is argued that there are significant livelihood variations within the community that shape the ways households engage with, and benefit from, conservation planning. Rather than strictly viewing Mahushe Shongwe as a constraint to environmental resource access or site for limited employment, community members identify a number of benefits from its existence including education and development opportunities. Additionally, transformations in governance systems in the region impact community views of the project since younger residents are less likely to engage with the Matsamo Tribal Authority, which participates in managing the reserve. The consequence is that conservation has various impacts and meanings within a specific community that remain tied to the livelihood and governance systems being renegotiated in the post-apartheid era.     

A method for generating uniform size-segregated pyrite particle fractions

Background  

Standardized sample preparation techniques allow comparison of pyrite dissolution experiments under diverse conditions. Our objective was to assess dry and wet sieving preparation methodologies, and to develop a reproducible technique that yields uniformly size-distributed material within a limited size range of interest.     

Predation on the rocky shores of Patagonia,Argentina

Rocky intertidal communities of Argentinean Patagonia are exposed to harsh physical conditions caused by dry, strong southern trade winds (mean speed 45 km h^-1, gusts up to 140 km h^-1) that result in intense desiccation of intertidal organisms. Predator distributions in these communities were evaluated from April 2003 to December 2004 at two exposed headlands and six protected bays in Cabo dos Bahias (44°50′S, 65°40′W). Crabs and sea stars dominated the predator assemblage, with occasional scavenger snails and fish also present. During low tide, predators were never found in the open but were always associated with shelter (primarily within mussel beds and coralline algae), suggesting a strong predator dependency on foundation species to buffer them from physical stress. Few predators (mostly crabs) emerged from shelter at high tide. Unlike the larger predators found on Chilean rocky shores, invertebrate predators in this system are diminutive, generally < 2 cm. The lone exception was the newly discovered invasive green crab,Carcinus mamas. Feeding trials, gut content analyses, and visual surveys indicated that native predators feed primarily on small, soft-bodied prey.C. mamas fed on slow-moving and sessile animals, including the super abundant musselPerumytilus purpuratus, with much greater voracity than native predators. Because native intertidal organisms are dependent on mussel beds and coralline algae for shelter from desiccation, successful invasion ofC. mamas may lead to a significant decrease in native diversity by consuming foundation species. This study represents a preliminary survey of predator distributions and feeding habits on the rocky shores of Argentinean Patagonia and provides important baseline data to evaluate trophic linkages and predatory effects on Patagonian rocky shores.     

Economic consequences of consideration of permanence, leakage and additionality for soil carbon sequestration projects

This paper introduces, explains, and describes methods for addressing the issues of permanence, leakage, and additionality (PLA) of agricultural soil carbon sequestration (ASCS) activities at the project level. It is important to cast these as project-level issues, because they relate to the integrity and consistency of using location-specific ASCS projects as an offset against GHG emissions generated in other sectors (e.g., energy). The underlying objective is to understand and quantify what the net carbon benefits of an ASCS project are once we account for the fact that (1) the sequestered carbon may be stored impermanently, (2) the project may displace emissions outside the project boundaries (leakage), and (3) the project’s carbon sequestration may not be entirely additional to what would have occurred anyway under business-as-usual (no project) conditions. This article evaluates methods for identifying and estimating PLA and gauges the potential magnitude of these effects on the economic returns to a project. This work reflects ongoing collaborative efforts of the authors and Bruce McCarl (Texas A&M University), Allan Sommer, Jui-Chen Yang, and Laurel Clayton (RTI International), Sandra Brown (Winrock International), Ken Andrasko and Ben DeAngelo (US EPA), and various participants in the World Resources Institute/World Business Council workgroup to develop GHG project reporting protocols. All opinions, errors and omissions are those of the authors only.     

Petrogenesis of late stage magmatism at Hold with Hope, East Greenland

The Myggbukta caldera complex and a swarm of basic dykes constitute the latest Tertiary magmatism in the Hold with Hope region, East Greenland. The Sr and Nd isotope ratios of these rocks show coherent variations which extend to high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values and require a contribution from continental lithosphere. Broad correlations with major element differentiation indices suggest that the continental component was incorporated during magmatic differentiation thereby favouring a crustal contamination process. Trace element concentrations are strongly correlated with isotopic compositions but display ranges for many incompatible elements which extend beyond likely crustal contaminant compositions. This is readily modelled by AFC processes in which the dominant cause of trace element enrichment is the concentration effect of fractional crystallisation rather than the composition of the contaminant. The simplest such models still require unrealistically high degrees of fractional crystallisation to explain the ten-fold enrichment of some trace elements. This can be overcome if the primary magmas entering the crust already had highly variable trace element compositions. Such variability is readily achieved if melts from different parts of the melting column escape without thorough homogenization. An AFC model which incorporates variability in parental magma composition is then able to simulate the range of compositions observed at Hold with Hope. This carries the implication that the variations observed are more readily attributed to changes in uncontaminated parental magma than to variations in the composition or amount of contaminant. Received: 5 March 1998 / Accepted: 16 June 1998     

The breakdown of potassium feldspar at high water pressures

The equilibrium position of the reaction between sanidine and water to form “sanidine hydrate” has been determined by reversal experiments on well characterised synthetic starting materials in a piston cylinder apparatus. The reaction was found to lie between four reversed brackets of 2.35 and 2.50 GPa at 450 °C, 2.40 and 2.59 GPa at 550 °C, 2.67 and 2.74 GPa at 650 °C, and 2.70 and 2.72 GPa at 680 °C. Infrared spectroscopy showed that the dominant water species in sanidine hydrate was structural H₂O. The minimum quantity of this structural H₂O, measured by thermogravimetric analysis, varied between 4.42 and 5.85 wt% over the pressure range of 2.7 to 3.2 GPa and the temperature range of 450 to 680 °C. Systematic variation in water content with pressure and temperature was not clearly established. The maximum value was below 6.07 wt%, the equivalent of 1 molecule of H₂O per formula unit. The water could be removed entirely by heating at atmospheric pressure to produce a metastable, anhydrous, hexagonal KAlSi₃O₈ phase (“hexasanidine”) implying that the structural H₂O content of sanidine hydrate can vary. The unit cell parameters for sanidine hydrate, measured by powder X-ray diffraction, were a = 0.53366 (±0.00022) nm and c = 0.77141 (±0.00052) nm, and those for hexasanidine were a = 0.52893 (±0.00016) nm and c = 0.78185 (±0.00036) nm. The behaviour and properties of sanidine hydrate appear to be analogous to those of the hydrate phase cymrite in the equivalent barium system. The occurrence of sanidine hydrate in the Earth would be limited to high pressure but very low temperature conditions and hence it could be a potential reservoir for water in cold subduction zones. However, sanidine hydrate would probably be constrained to granitic rock compositions at these pressures and temperatures. Received: 6 May 1997 / Accepted: 2 October 1997     

Resonant tidal disruption in galactic nuclei

It has recently been shown by Rauch 38 Tremaine that the rate of angular momentum relaxation in nearly Keplerian star clusters is greatly increased by a process termed 'resonant relaxation'; it was also argued, via a series of scaling arguments, that tidal disruption of stars in galactic nuclei containing massive black holes could be noticeably enhanced by this process. We describe here the results of numerical simulations of resonant tidal disruption which quantitatively test the predictions made by Rauch 38 Tremaine. The simulation method is based on an N -body routine incorporating cloning of stars near the loss cone and a semirelativistic symplectic integration scheme. Normalized disruption rates for resonant and non-resonant nuclei are derived at orbital energies both above and below the critical energy, and the corresponding angular momentum distribution functions are found. The black hole mass above which resonant tidal disruption is quenched by relativistic precession is determined. We also briefly describe the discovery of chaos in the Wisdom–Holman symplectic integrator applied to highly eccentric orbits and propose a modified integration scheme that remains robust under these conditions. We find that resonant disruption rates exceed their non-resonant counterparts by an amount consistent with the predictions; in particular, we estimate the net tidal disruption rate for a fully resonant cluster to be about twice that of its non-resonant counterpart. No significant enhancement in rates is observed outside the critical radius. Relativistic quenching of the effect is found to occur for hole masses M  >  M _Q  = (8 ± 3) × 10⁷  M . The numerical results combined with the observed properties of galactic nuclei indicate that for most galaxies the resonant enhancement to tidal disruption rates will be very small.