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11.
Qunying Luo William Bellotti Martin Williams Ian Cooper Brett Bryan 《Climatic change》2007,85(1-2):89-101
This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations
of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk
analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability
of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate
change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most
likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required. 相似文献
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Landslides - In regions of infrequent but potentially damaging seismicity, modern earthquake inventories may be insufficient to provide inputs to seismic hazard analyses (i.e., fault locations and... 相似文献
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Our understanding of planet formation depends in fundamental ways on what we learn by analyzing the composition, mineralogy, and petrology of meteorites. Yet, it is difficult to deduce the compositional and thermal gradients that existed in the solar nebula from the meteoritic record because, in most cases, we do not know where meteorites with different chemical and isotopic signatures originated. Here we developed a model that tracks the orbits of meteoroid-sized objects as they evolve from the ν6 secular resonance to Earth-crossing orbits. We apply this model to determining the number of meteorites accreted on the Earth immediately after a collisional disruption of a D∼200-km-diameter inner-main-belt asteroid in the Flora family region. We show that this event could produce fossil chondrite meteorites found in an ≈470 Myr old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, the L-chondrite meteorites with shock ages ≈470 Myr falling on the Earth today, as well as asteroid-sized fragments in the Flora family. To explain the measured short cosmic-ray exposure ages of fossil meteorites our model requires that the meteoroid-sized fragments were launched at speeds >500 m s−1 and/or the collisional lifetimes of these objects were much shorter immediately after the breakup event than they are today. 相似文献
16.
Matthew J. Cashman Allen C. Gellis Eric Boyd Mathias J. Collins Scott W. Anderson Brett D. McFarland Ashley M. Ryan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(6):1145-1159
In this study, we captured how a river channel responds to a sediment pulse originating from a dam removal using multiple lines of evidence derived from streamflow gages along the Patapsco River, Maryland, USA. Gages captured characteristics of the sediment pulse, including travel times of its leading edge (~7.8 km yr−1) and peak (~2.6 km yr−1) and suggest both translation and increasing dispersion. The pulse also changed local hydraulics and energy conditions, increasing flow velocities and Froude number, due to bed fining, homogenization and/or slope adjustment. Immediately downstream of the dam, recovery to pre-pulse conditions occurred within the year, but farther downstream recovery was slower, with the tail of the sediment pulse working through the lower river by the end of the study 7 years later. The patterns and timing of channel change associated with the sediment pulse were not driven by large flow or suspended sediment-transporting events, with change mostly occurring during lower flows. This suggests pulse mobility was controlled by process-factors largely independent of high flow. In contrast, persistent changes occurred to out-of-channel flooding dynamics. Stage associated with flooding increased during the arrival of the sediment pulse, 1 to 2 years after dam removal, suggesting persistent sediment deposition at the channel margins and nearby floodplain. This resulted in National Weather Service-indicated flood stages being attained by 3–43% smaller discharges compared to earlier in the study period. This study captured a two-signal response from the sediment pulse: (1) short- to medium-term (weeks to months) translation and dispersion within the channel, resulting in aggradation and recovery of bed elevations and changing local hydraulics; and (2) dispersion and persistent longer-term (years) effects of sediment deposition on overbank surfaces. This study further demonstrated the utility of US Geological Survey gage data to quantify geomorphic change, increase temporal resolution, and provide insights into trajectories of change over varying spatial and temporal scales. 相似文献
17.
Brett A. Yuskiewicz F. Stratmann W. Birmili A. Wiedensohler E. Swietlicki O. Berg J. Zhou 《Atmospheric Research》1999,50(3-4)
Direct physical measurements of particle mass and number concentration indicate an increase in overall aerosol mass resulting from cloud processing, most likely through aqueous-phase chemistry (e.g., SO2 oxidation). Measurements conducted in the Pennines of Northern England reveal an average increase of 14 to 20% in dry aerosol mass (0.003<particle diameter<0.9 μm) after aerosol passage through an orographic cloud. The rate of in-cloud mass production is most sensitive to changes in upwind particle size distributions, SO2 concentration, and cloud water acidity. Newly-formed mass appears in size range between 200 and 600 nm and enhances the bimodality of the particle number distribution after cloud processing. Furthermore, the cloud-produced mass is estimated to increase total light scattering, bsp, by 18 to 24%. The scattering efficiency of the dry, cloud-generated aerosol is 5.0±0.3 m2 g−1 and increases to 7.4±0.7 m2 g−1 when adjusted to 90% relative humidity by incorporating particle hygroscopicity data. 相似文献
18.
Predicting gravel bed river response to environmental change: the strengths and limitations of a regime‐based approach 下载免费PDF全文
Rivers respond to environmental changes such as climate shifts, land use changes and the construction of hydro‐power dams in a variety of ways. Often there are multiple potential responses to any given change. Traditionally, potential stream channel response has been assessed using simple, qualitative frameworks based largely on professional judgement and field experience, or using some form of regime theory. Regime theory represents an attempt to use a physically based approach to predict the configuration of stable channels that can transport the imposed sediment supply with the available discharge. We review the development of regime theory, and then present a specific regime model that we have created as a stand‐alone computer program, called the UBC Regime Model (UBCRM). UBCRM differs from other regime models in that it constrains its predictions using a bank stability criterion, as well as a pattern stability criterion; it predicts both the stable channel cross‐sectional dimensions as well as the number of anabranches that the stream must have in order to establish a stable channel pattern. UBCRM also differs from other models in that it can be used in a stochastic modelling mode that translates uncertainty in the input variables into uncertainty in the predicted channel characteristics. However, since regime models are fundamentally based on the concept of grade, there are circumstances in which the model does not perform well. We explore the strengths and weaknesses of the UBCRM in this paper, and we attempt to illustrate how the UBCRM can be used to augment the existing qualitative frameworks, and to help guide professionals in their assessments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Researchers have associated channel-forming flows with reach-average shear stresses close to the entrainment threshold for the surface D50 . We conducted experiments using a model of a generic steep, gravel–cobble stream to test this association. Our results suggest that channel-forming flows fully mobilize the D50 , and produce shear stresses close to the entrainment threshold for the largest grains in the bed. The channel dimensions were set by flows capable of mobilizing between 85% and 90% of the bed surface, which produced a brief period of lateral instability lasting about 1 h, followed by a prolonged period of relative stability during which modest adjustments occurred, but during which the reach-average hydraulics remained about the same. The adjustments during the unstable phase of the experiments are characterized by rapid bank erosion, extensive deposits on the channel bed and a restructuring of the major morphologic elements of the stream. The adjustments during the stable phase of the experiments involved barform migration and bed surface coarsening but did not appreciably modify the physical template established by the end of the unstable phase. The behaviour we observed is not consistent with the concept of a dynamic equilibrium associated with a formative flow that is just capable of entraining the bed surface D50 . Instead, it suggests that rapid adjustments occur once a stability threshold is exceeded, which creates a template that constrains channel activity until another event drives the system across the stability threshold, and re-sets the template. While we believe that it is probably too simplistic to associate a channel-forming discharge with the entrainment threshold for a single grain size, our results suggest that the D95 is a more logical choice than the D50 © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Leah E. Morgan Madicken Munk Brett Davidheiser‐Kroll Nicholas H. Warner Sanjeev Gupta Rachel Slaybaugh Patrick Harkness Darren F. Mark 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):381-396
The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the 40Ar/39Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the 40Ar/39Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the 40Ar/39Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the 40Ar/39Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution. 相似文献