Effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season using MOGREPS implemented at the KMA

Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated. Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF), ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system. Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009. Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy, reliability, and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts. Even though the results were not significant, the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased, especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere. While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased, inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction. The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy, resolution, and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size, especially for longer forecast times.     

Relative contributions of sulfate- and iron(III) reduction to organic matter mineralization and process controls in contrasting habitats of the Georgia saltmarsh

The objectives of this study were to partition out the predominant anaerobic respiration pathways coupled to C oxidation and to further elucidate the controls of anaerobic C respiration in three major saltmarsh habitats at Skidaway Island, GA; the short form of Spartina alterniflora (SS), the tall form of S. alterniflora (TS), and unvegetated, bioturbated creekbank (CB). Geochemical analysis of pore water and solid phase constituents revealed that the SS site experienced highly reducing conditions with two orders of magnitude higher pore water sulfide inventories (1.884 mmol m⁻²) than TS (0.003 mmol m⁻²) and CB (0.005 mmol m⁻²), respectively. Conversely, reactive Fe(III) inventories at TS (2208 mmol m⁻²) and CB (2881 mmol m⁻²) were up to 7–9 times higher than at SS (338 mmol m⁻²). Incubations and intact core experiments indicated that reduction accounted for 95% (SS), 37% (TS) and 66% (CB) of total anaerobic respiration. There was no detectable Fe(III) reduction at SS, while Fe(III) reduction accounted for up to 70% of C oxidation in the 3–6 cm depth interval at TS and 0–3 cm depth of CB, and on average, approximately 55% of C oxidation over two-thirds of marsh surface area. Laboratory manipulations provided further evidence for the importance of Fe(III) reduction as the accumulation rates of fermentation products were high when Fe(III) reduction was inhibited by removing the Fe(III) minerals from highly bioturbated CB sediments with higher Fe(III) mineral contents. Anaerobic C oxidation, - and Fe(III)-reduction rates appeared to be highest at the TS site during active plant growth in summer. Overall results suggest that bioturbation by macrofauna is the overriding factor in modulating the pathway of C mineralization in the saltmarsh, whereas availability of organic substrates from plants is a key factor in controlling the C oxidation rate.     

TBT toxicity on the marine microalga Nannochloropsis oculata

Commercial antifouling formulations containing TBT are the major source of organotin contamination in coastal waters. In view of the persisting TBT residues (13 ng Sn l⁻¹) in the coastal waters of South Korea, an attempt has been made to evaluate the growth response and biochemical composition of laboratory-cultured Nannochloropsis oculata to TBT toxicity. It is evident that the persisting concentration level of TBT is high enough to cause adverse effect on the microalgal species. The EC₅₀ (24 h) was found to be at 0.89 nM level of TBT for this marine eustigmatophyte N. oculata. Photosynthetic pigment content was significantly affected. At elevated TBT concentrations of 1.0 nM, especially pronounced changes in biochemical composition was found. TBT tolerance of N. oculata and its growth as well as biochemical responses are discussed.     

The effect of land cover change on duration and severity of high and low flows

Land cover has been increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting hydrologic processes at the basin and regional level. Therefore, improved understanding of how land cover change affects hydrologic systems is needed for better management of water resources. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of land cover change on the duration and severity of high and low flows by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Two basins dominated by different land cover in the Ohio River basin are used as study area in this study. Two historic land covers from the 1950s and 1990s are considered as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, thereby investigating the hydrologic high and low flow response of different land cover conditions of these two basins. The relationships between the duration and severity of both low and high flow are defined by applying the copula method; changes in the frequency of the duration and severity are investigated. The results show that land cover changes affect both the duration and severity of both high and low flows. An increase in forest area leads to a decrease in the duration and severity during both high and low flows, but its impact is highest during extreme flows. The results also show that the land cover changes have had significant influences on changes in the joint return periods of duration and severity of low and high flows. While this study sheds light on the role of land cover change on severity and duration of high and low flow conditions, more studies using various land cover conditions and climate types are required in order to draw more reliable conclusions in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A three‐dimensional transmitting boundary formulated in Cartesian co‐ordinate system for the dynamics of non‐axisymmetric foundations

A three‐dimensional transmitting boundary is formulated in the Cartesian co‐ordinate system. It is developed for the dynamic soil–structure interaction problems of arbitrary shape foundations in laterally heterogeneous strata overlying rigid bedrock. Dynamics of a rectangular rigid surface foundation on a homogeneous stratum is analysed by a hybrid approach in which the finite region including foundation is modelled by the conventional finite element method and the surrounding infinite region by the newly developed transmitting boundary. To demonstrate its strength, the present method is applied to a rectangular foundation in a horizontally heterogeneous ground consisting of two distinct regions divided by and welded along a vertical plane. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sources and distribution of allochthonous organic matter in surface sediment from the Seomjin River to the southern inner shelf of Korea

The spatial distributions of δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and n-alkanes were investigated to determine the source and transportation of allochthonous organic matter from the mouth of the Seomjin River to the southern inner shelf break of Korea. Total organic carbon (%) ranged from 0.3% to 1.6% (average = 0.80%, n = 81), and the C/N ratio varied from 2.4 to 12.4 (average = 6.76, n = 81). The δ¹³C values ranged from ?25.86 to ?20.26‰ (average = ?21.47‰, n = 81), and δ¹⁵N values ranged from 4.37‰ to 8.57‰ (average = 6.72‰, n = 81). The contribution of the terrestrial fraction of organic matter to the total ranged from 4.4% to 97.7% (average = 24.4%, n = 81), suggesting higher amounts around the catchment area and lower amounts in the offshore area. The concentration of total n-alkanes (nC₂₅ ? nC₃₅) was higher at the boundary between the outer bay and inner shelf break (BOBIS). Average chain length and the carbon preference index both indicated that major leaf wax n-alkanes accounted for the observed distribution of terrestrial organic matter, and were dominant in the inner shelf break (around BOBIS) and outer shelf break. Based on the spatial distribution of the total n-alkanes and the sum of nC₂₇, nC₂₉, and nC₃₁, the terrestrial organic matter distribution was considered to be controlled by local oceanographic conditions, especially at the center of the BOBIS. In addition to enabling the distribution and source of terrestrial organic matter to be identified, the n-alkanes indicated that minor anthropogenic allochthonous organic materials were superimposed on the total organic materials in the central part of Yeosu Bay and the catchment area. The n-alkane indices revealed weathered petroleum contamination, with contamination levels being relatively low at the present time.     

Sulfate Reduction and Sulfur Cycles at Two Seagrass Beds Inhabited by Cold Affinity <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis> and Warm Affinity <Emphasis Type="Italic">Halophila nipponica</Emphasis> in Temperate Coastal Waters

To evaluate the impact of invading seagrass on biogeochemical processes associated with sulfur cycles, we investigated the geochemical properties and sulfate reduction rates (SRRs) in sediments inhabited by invasive warm affinity Halophila nipponica and indigenous cold affinity Zostera marina. A more positive relationship between SRR and below-ground biomass (BGB) was observed at the H. nipponica bed (SRR = 0.6809 × BGB ? 4.3162, r ² = 0.9878, p = 0.0006) than at the Z. marina bed (SRR = 0.3470 × BGB ? 4.0341, r ² = 0.7082, p = 0.0357). These results suggested that SR was more stimulated by the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exuded from the roots of H. nipponica than by the DOC released from the roots of Z. marina. Despite the enhanced SR in spring-summer, the relatively lower proportion (average, 20%) of acid-volatile sulfur (AVS) in total reduced sulfur and the strong correlation between total oxalate-extractable Fe (Fe_(oxal)) and chromium-reducible sulfur (CRS = 0.2321 × total Fe_(oxal) + 1.8180, r ² = 0.3344, p = 0.0076) in the sediments suggested the rapid re-oxidation of sulfide and precipitation of sulfide with Fe. The turnover rate of the AVS at the H. nipponica bed (0.13 day^?1) was 2.5 times lower than that at the Z. marina bed (0.33 day^?1). Together with lower AVS turnover, the stronger correlation of SRR to BGB in the H. nipponica bed suggests that the extension of H. nipponica resulting from the warming of seawater might provoke more sulfide accumulation in coastal sediments.     

Impacts of land use change and groundwater management on long-term nitrate-nitrogen and chloride trends in groundwater of Jeju Island,Korea

Impacts of land use changes and groundwater management actions on groundwater quality were evaluated at the island scale with spatiotemporal trends of NO₃-N and Cl concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea. The temporal trends from 1993 to 2012 in the concentrations of NO₃-N and Cl from more than 3900 wells were estimated using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope analysis and compared with the land use change trend for the period 1995–2009. The results indicate that the upward trends in NO₃-N were associated with the expansion of agricultural lands, whereas Cl trends were considered to be affected by other factors in addition to the land use changes. In the mid-mountainous region, the deterioration in the groundwater quality by the both NO₃-N and Cl was expected due to the continuous expansion of agricultural lands. In the lowland area, the NO₃-N and Cl components showed different trends depending on the regions. In the eastern area, increasing trends in NO₃-N were observed due to the development of new agricultural areas, while the Cl concentration was observed to decrease as a result of the regulation on groundwater extraction to reduce seawater intrusion. Our study highlights that a comprehensive interpretation of trends in NO₃-N and Cl and land use changes for long-term periods can provide useful insights to prepare for suitable groundwater management plans in the whole island perspective.     

Identification of Multiple Sources of Groundwater Contamination by Dual Isotopes

Chlorinated solvents are one of the most commonly detected groundwater contaminants in industrial areas. Identification of polluters and allocation of contaminant sources are important concerns in the evaluation of complex subsurface contamination with multiple sources. In recent years, compound‐specific isotope analyses (CSIA) have been employed to discriminate among different contaminant sources and to better understand the fate of contaminants in field‐site studies. In this study, the usefulness of dual isotopes (carbon and chlorine) was shown in assessments of groundwater contamination at an industrial complex in Wonju, Korea, where groundwater contamination with chlorinated solvents such as trichloroethene (TCE) and carbon tetrachloride (CT) was observed. In November 2009, the detected TCE concentrations at the study site ranged between nondetected and 10,066 µg/L, and the CT concentrations ranged between nondetected and 985 µg/L. In the upgradient area, TCE and CT metabolites were detected, whereas only TCE metabolites were detected in the downgradient area. The study revealed the presence of separate small but concentrated TCE pockets in the downgradient area, suggesting the possibility of multiple contaminant sources that created multiple comingling plumes. Furthermore, the variation of the isotopic (δ¹³C and δ³⁷Cl) TCE values between the upgradient and downgradient areas lends support to the idea of multiple contamination sources even in the presence of detectable biodegradation. This case study found it useful to apply a spatial distribution of contaminants coupled with their dual isotopic values for evaluation of the contaminated sites and identification of the presence of multiple sources in the study area.     

Massive sedimentation of fine sediment with organic matter and enhanced benthic-pelagic coupling by an artificial dyke in semi-enclosed Chonsu Bay, Korea

To assess the impact of an artificial dyke in Chonsu Bay (CBD) on the organic carbon (C(org)) cycle, we measured excess (210)Pb activities, C(org) and nitrogen content in sediment cores. The C(org) oxidation rates (C(ox)) on the surface sediment and benthic nutrient fluxes were also quantified with an in situ benthic chamber. The higher excess (210)Pb inventory, C(org) and nitrogen in cores near the CBD indicated lateral transport and local, massive deposition of particulate matter due to tidal circulation altered by artificial dyke construction. The C(ox) in sediment near the CBD was about twice as high as that out of the bay, suggesting the importance of benthic remineralization of organic matter. The benthic fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate were four to six times higher than those outside the bay, corresponding to 141% and 131% respectively, of the requirements for primary production.