On the added value of regional climate modeling in climate change assessment

Regional climate models represent a promising tool to assess the regional dimension of future climate change and are widely used in climate impact research. While the added value of regional climate models has been highlighted with respect to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes, it is still unclear whether radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model. As a quantitative assessment, we apply an optimal statistical filter to compare the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate change from a global and a regional climate model. It is found that the regional climate model has indeed an added value in the detection of regional climate change, contrary to former assumptions. The optimal filter may also serve as a weighting factor in multi-model averaging.     

Depletion-induced seismicity in NW-Germany: lessons from comprehensive investigations

Acta Geotechnica - Evaluating various investigations for north-German gas fields, we discuss past and actual evolutions of the rock fabric in the light of dilatant driven and spontaneous...     

Hydraulic fracturing: a toxicological threat for groundwater and drinking-water?

This paper deals with the possible impact of hydraulic fracturing (fracking), employed in the exploitation of unconventional shale gas and tight gas reservoirs, on groundwater, which is the most important source of drinking-water in Germany and many other European countries. This assessment, which is part of an interdisciplinary study by a panel of neutral experts on the risks and environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing, is based mainly on data obtained from three ExxonMobil drilling sites in northern Germany. First, the basic technical aspects of fracking and its relevant water fluxes are explained. The type, purpose and fate of the constituents of the fracking fluids are discussed. The chemicals used in the fracking fluids are assessed with regard to their hazardous properties according to the Regulation (EC) No. 1272/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the classification, labelling and packaging of substances and mixtures (CLP regulation) and the German “Water Hazard Classes”. Contamination of groundwater by ingredients of fracking fluids may occur from under ground or may result from above-ground accidents associated with the transport, storage and handling of hazardous substances used as additives in fracking fluids. The degree of groundwater contamination cannot be predicted in a general way. Therefore, different dilutions of the fracking fluid in groundwater are considered. It is shown that the concentrations of most ingredients resulting from a 1:10,000 up to 1:100,000 dilution of the fracking fluid in groundwater are below health-based reference values such as the limit values of the European Drinking Water Directive, the WHO Guideline Values for Drinking-water Quality, and other health-based guide values for drinking-water. Regarding the salinity of fracking fluids, a dilution of 1:1,000 is sufficient to reach concentrations which are acceptable for drinking-water. From the human-toxicological point of view, the constituents of flowback water are more problematic with respect to drinking-water produced from groundwater than those of the fracking fluids. The few reliable data which have become available, as well as hydrogeological considerations, point in the direction of considerable salt concentrations and toxic constituents, e.g., Hg, As, Pb, Zn, Cd, BTX, PAHs, or even radioactive elements. The identification and assessment of reaction products and metabolites, which are produced as a result of the fracking operation and the metabolic activity of microorganisms, are important topics for further research. The recommendations include the need for a better understanding of the environmental impact of fracking operations, especially with regard to the development of sustainable rules for planning, permission, performance and management of fracking, and for the monitoring of groundwater quality around fracked drilling sites.     

Validation of boundary layer parameters of climate model REMO: estimation of leaf area index from NOAA-AVHRR data for the Baltimos region

The preparation of time- and space-dependent input surface parameters for the climate model REMO was one task of the Baltimos project “Validation of Boundary Layer Parameters and Extension of Boundary conditions of Climate Model REMO”. The leaf area index (LAI) is one of these parameters. It is used in REMO as defined value per month for each land-use class with a defined seasonal trend during the year. Since 1982 at the Institute of Meteorology of the Free University Berlin, a high-resolved AVHRR data set of the NOAA satellite has been available (1/100 degree, approximately 1?×?1 km at nadir in a geographic coordination system) (Koslowsky 1996). The vegetation periods of the years 1997 until 2001 were selected from the dataset to estimate the LAI within the Baltimos region on the basis of an algorithm by Sellers et al. (J Climate 9:706–737, 1996) and a modified United States Geological Survey (USGS) land-use classification. The calculated high-resolved NOAA LAI values were converted to the 1/6 degree grid of the REMO climate model. Then, they were compared to the fixed LAI values, which are used in the model.     

Biogeochemical conditions in sediments enriched by organic matter from net-pen fish farms in the Bolinao area, Philippines

Sedimentation and sediment metabolism was measured at eight active milkfish fish pens and at one abandoned site in the Bolinao area, Philippines in order to examine the interactions between sediment and water in this shallow coastal zone. The rates of sedimentation were high in the area due to siltation, but the activities in the fish pens also contributed to enhanced sedimentation as indicated by the difference between the abandoned and active sites. The sediment metabolism appeared to decrease with increasing rates of sedimentation indicating that the microbial activity reached a saturation level in the fish pen sediments. Anaerobic processes dominated the organic matter decomposition, and sulfate reduction rates are among the highest measured in fish farm sediments. The rates decreased with increasing organic loading despite high concentrations of sulfate (>10 mM) at all sites. Presence of methane bubbles in the sediments suggests that sulfate reduction and methanogenesis were coexisting. The sediment metabolism was significantly reduced at the abandoned site indicating that the stimulation of microbial activities is due to active fish production. The anaerobic activity remained high at the abandoned site indicating that the sediment biogeochemical conditions remain affected long time after fish production has ceased.     

Elemental dispersion and stable isotope fractionation during reactive fluid-flow and fluid immiscibility in the Bufa del Diente aureole,NE-Mexico: evidence from radiographies and Li,B, Sr,Nd, and Pb isotope systematics

The 31.6±0.3 Ma old Bufa del Diente alkali-syenite (NE Mexico) intruded a sequence of Cretaceous limestones with intercalated sub-horizontal chert layers. The cherts acted as aquifers that facilitated transport of brines and pegmatitic melts within the shallow-level (<1 kbar) contact-metamorphic aureole. Fluid-driven reactions between chert and marble wallrock, and the influx of late melts and various fluids gave rise to distinct chemical and isotopic signatures within the aquifer and across the zones of infiltration and fluid-driven reaction. Aqueous brines of magmatic origin produced thick wollastonite mantles around the chert layers. Wollastonite formation occurred at the expense of limestone and chert and generated CO₂. This CO₂-induced fluid unmixing into an aqueous brine and a low-density CO₂-rich fluid, which was lost to the overlying marble where it oxidized organic matter and caused ¹³C and ¹⁸O shifts in a zone some 5–10 cm wide. After wollastonite formation, the chert aquifers were locally intruded by pegmatite veins carrying alkali feldspar, quartz, aegirine-augite, eudialyte, zircon, and apatite. Aqueous fluids that exsolved during crystallization of the pegmatite veins escaped along late cross-fractures and migrated along the inner and outer borders of the wollastonite margins. Chemical dispersion patterns of U, Al, Na + K, P, S, Fe, and REE across the chert-to-marble boundary and its metasomatic rims are shown by autoradiography and neutron-induced radiography. Scavenging of cations at mineralogical contacts and cation transport into the marbles occurred only on the mm to cm scale. Isotopic data for Pb and Sr across a simple metachert-marble boundary and for Pb, Sr, Nd, B, and Li across a metachert-pegmatite-marble sequence demonstrate the following: (1) The Pb and Sr isotopic signature of early fluids was buffered by the carbonate wallrock. Only late fluids, shielded from wallrock interaction by a wollastonite mantle, variably preserved a memory of their initial magmatic signature. (2) Since the Nd isotope signature of marble and chert is bound to calcite and clay minerals, systematic shifts to unradiogenic Nd in marble reflect loss of carbonate-bound Nd as the wollastonite margin is approached. Nd in the wollastonite margin is dominated by Nd originally bound to clay minerals. The later emplacement of the pegmatite, which carried the Nd isotope signature of its alkali-syenite source, had little effect on the Nd isotopic composition of the wollastonite rim. (3) Although the Li and B isotopic compositions reflect the alkali-syenite source, they are also affected by isotopic fractionation and partitioning between melt, fluid, and solids.Editorial responsibility J. Hoefs     

Particulate matter fluxes in the southern and central Kara Sea compared to sediments: Bulk fluxes, amino acids, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, sterols and fatty acids

The Kara Sea is one of the arctic marginal seas strongly influenced by fresh water and river suspension. The highly seasonal discharge by the two major rivers Yenisei and Ob induces seasonal changes in hydrography, sea surface temperature, ice cover, primary production and sedimentation. In order to obtain a seasonal pattern of sedimentation in the Kara Sea, sediment traps were deployed near the river mouth of the Yenisei (Yen) as well as in the central Kara Sea (Kara) within the framework of the German–Russian project “Siberian River run-off; SIRRO”. Two and a half years of time-series flux data were obtained between September 2000 and April 2003 and were analyzed for bulk components, amino acids, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes as well as sterols and fatty acids.Sediment trap data show that much of the annual deposition occurred under ice cover, possibly enhanced by zooplanktonic activity and sediment resuspension. An early bloom of ice-associated algae in April/May occurred in the polynya area and may have been very important to sustain the life cycles of higher organisms after the light limitation of the winter months due to no/low insolation and ice cover. The strong river input dominated the months June–August in the southern part of the Kara Sea. The central Kara Sea had a much shorter productive period starting in August and was less affected by the river plumes. Despite different time-scales of sampling and trapping biases, total annual fluxes from traps were in the same order of magnitude as accumulation rates in surface sediments. Terrestrial organic carbon accumulation decreased from 10.7 to 0.3 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ from the riverine source to the central Kara Sea. Parallel to this, preservation of marine organic matter decreased from 10% to 2% of primary productivity which was probably related to decreasing rates of sedimentation.     

Interregional and Transnational Co-operation in River Basins – Chances to Improve Flood Risk Management?

In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management.