用机载多普勒雷达资料进行三维风场解析反演 I. 多重解析多普勒方法在机载雷达情况下的推广及模拟验证

多重解析多普勒（MANDOP）方法是用解析表达式进行三维风场反演。它成功地应用于处理地基多普勒雷达资料，获取对流系统层状降水区域的风场结构。本文将MANDOP方法在机载雷达情况下的进行推广并通过模拟研究径向速度测量中信号噪声、雨滴降落速度估计误差、平流速度估计误差、尤其是由于机载特性的引入产生的雷达束定位误差等对方法的影响。模拟结果显示，在机载雷达的技术参数下，MANDOP方法能够提供误差可以接受的三维风场反演。这为利用MANDOP方法处理在CaPE实验中获取的历史上第一次机载双束多普勒雷达资料建立了可靠的基础。     

异常气候对苹果优质生产的影响及对策

红富士苹果优质是当前果树生产的重要研究项目之一。通过近年来对山西吉县异常天气的分析调查及对苹果生产的影响，提出了相应的生产管理措施，对红富士苹果优质生产具有一定的指导意义。     

Using Multivariate Statistical and Geostatistical Methods to Identify Spatial Variability of Trace Elements in Agricultural Soils in Dongguan City,Guangdong,China

Dongguan (东莞) City, located in the Pearl River Delta, South China, is famous for its rapid industrialization in the past 30 years. A total of 90 topsoil samples have been collected from agricultural fields, including vegetable and orchard soils in the city, and eight heavy metals (As, Cu, Cd,Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn) and other items (pH values and organic matter) have been analyzed, to evaluate the influence of anthropie activities on the environmental quality of agricultural soils and to identify the spatial distribution of trace elements and possible sources of trace elements. The elements Hg, Pb, and Cd have accumulated remarkably here, incomparison with the soil background content of elements in Guangdong (广东) Province. Pollution is more serious in the western plain and the central region, which are heavily distributed with industries and rivers. Multivariate and geostatistical methods have been applied to differentiate the influences of natural processes and human activities on the pollution of heavy metals in topsoils in the study area. The results of cluster analysis (CA) and factor analysis (FA) show that Ni, Cr, Cu, Zn, and As are grouped in factor F1,Pb in F2, and Cd and Hg in F3, respectively. The spatial pattern of the three factors may be well demonstrated by geostatistical analysis. It is shown that the first factor could be considered as a natural source controlled by parent rocks. The second factor could be referred to as "industrial and traffic pollution sources". The source of the third factor is mainly controlled by long-term anthropic activities ,ad a consequence of agricultural fossil fuel consumption and atmospheric deposition.     

河西走廊春季大风、沙尘暴的成因差异初探

通过对河西走廊1971～2000年3～5月大风和沙尘暴个例普查,运用相关法分析了河西走廊大风和沙尘暴天气在时间上的分布差异和沙尘暴与沙源地区前期降水的关系,同时对“起沙风”也作了初步探讨,结果表明：河西走廊地区在10min平均风速大于等于9m／s时,极易起沙;河西走廊的西部、中部、东部分别在南疆中东部、南疆东部内蒙西部河西西部、内蒙中西部出现5～8mm降水后5天才有可能出现沙尘暴。文中给出了河西走廊大风沙尘暴的几种典型环流形势及每一种环流形势可引发沙尘暴的预报着眼点。     

天基太赫兹云雷达需求指标分析与论证

云对大气起着重要的动力和热力作用,对地球能量平衡、气候变化及天气演变具有重要影响,但云是全球气候模型中最重要的也是最难确定的气象要素之一。太赫兹(Terahertz,THz)波是介于微波和红外辐射的电磁波,具有方向性好、能效高、可全天候工作、对云系微物理结构有更高的灵敏度等优点。天基云雷达是测量全球尺度云的有效手段,它能够直接测量云的三维结构,还可以为被动微波遥感测量提供订正参考,目前天基雷达是获取全球云的垂直运动、粒子相态和中尺度物理结构等信息的唯一设备。综合太赫兹波与雷达探测的优势,采用天基太赫兹雷达进行云雾探测,能够获得目前其他技术手段无法获得的独特信息。从应用需求的角度,综合考虑探测目标的垂直与水平分布特性、目标测量所受的杂波干扰、测量精度、分辨率拖影、天线尺寸和衰减等方面的要求,对天基太赫兹测云雷达的探测频段、灵敏度、分辨率、扫描范围、探测距离等重要需求指标进行分析论证,给出合理的需求指标,推进国内天基太赫兹测云雷达的开发建设及应用,为主动遥感气象探测增加一支生力军。     

Middle Holocene Organic Carbon and Biomarker Records from the South Yellow Sea: Relationship to the East Asian Monsoon

The East Asian monsoon system influences the sedimentation and transport of organic matter in East Asian marginal seas that is derived from both terrestrial and marine sources. In this study, we determined organic carbon (OC) isotope values, concentrations of marine biomarkers, and levels of OC and total nitrogen (TN) in core YSC-1 from the central South Yellow Sea (SYS). Our objectives were to trace the sources of OC and variations in palaeoproductivity since the middle Holocene, and their relationships with the East Asian monsoon system. The relative contributions of terrestrial versus marine organic matter in core sediments were estimated using a two-end-member mixing model of OC isotopes. Results show that marine organic matter has been the main sediment constituent since the middle Holocene. The variation of terrestrial organic carbon concentration (OCter) is similar to the EASM history. However, the variation of marine organic carbon concentration (OCmar) is opposite to that of the EASM curve, suggesting OCmar is distinctly influenced by terrestrial material input. Inputs of terrestrial nutrients into the SYS occur in the form of fluvial and aeolian dust, while concentrations of nutrients in surface water are derived mainly from bottom water via the Yellow Sea circulation system, which is controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Variations in palaeoproductivity represented by marine organic matter and biomarker records are, in general, consistent with the recent EAWM intensity studies, thus, compared with EASM, EAWM may play the main role to control the marine productivity variations in the SYS.     

立体雷达方法在星载测雨雷达上的应用

星载测雨雷达的应用,必须满足一些主要条件：高的空间分辨率、宽阔的覆盖范围、大的动态降雨测量范围以及精确的点测量等。由于技术条件的限制,满足这些条件的雷达工作在被雨衰减的频率段,因此必须修正由于衰减所导致的误差。立体雷达方法利用雷达从两个不同角度对雨团的观测来进行衰减效应的订正并实现整个观察区域的雷达反射率因子和比衰减因子场的反演。通过数值实验研究了星载特性的引入造成的不均匀性束内填充效应对立体雷达方法的影响     

Reconstruction of autumn sea ice extent changes since AD1289 in the Barents-Kara Sea,Arctic

Using high-resolution ice core and tree ring proxies for sea ice extent(SIE), we reconstructed a robust time series of autumn SIE over the Barents-Kara(B-K) sector of the Arctic from AD1289–1993. After intercomparing the results and statistical parameters using the ordinary least squares regression(OLSR), the principle component regression(PCR) and the partial least squares regression(PLSR) methods, SIE time series were synthesized into a more robust series using the weighted average method, which used the explained variances as weights. The results showed that from the end of the 13 th century to the end of18 th century, the autumn B-K SIE was large, with large variations and a slightly expanding trend overall. This reflected significant multidecadal oscillations under the Little Ice Age(LIA) background. The B-K SIE began to decrease at the end of the18 th century, and a shrinking trend became significant during the second half of the 19 th century, which lasted into the 1930 s–1940 s. The 1930 s–1940 s was a period with a relatively low SIE in the B-K Sea, and the SIE had a short period of expansion from the 1940 s–1970 s. However, the B-K SIE has continuously and significantly shrank since the 1970 s. The reduction in the B-K SIE since the end of the 18 th century has been unprecedented in both duration and speed over the last 700 years. The B-K SIE has retreated significantly since the 1970 s, with a speed 6.18 times greater than the former mean retreating speed. The industrial revolution may be a dominant factor in this result. The Arctic SIE in recent years may be the lowest it has been over the last millennium.     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的地震目录模拟及相符性检验——以汾渭地震带为例

人工地震目录模拟是改进现有地震目录不完备性、弥补大地震记录稀缺,以及完善地震学相关研究的有效途径之一。本文基于地震活动的泊松分布模型、古登堡-里克特震级-频度关系,利用能较逼真描述具有随机性质事物特点及物理实验过程的蒙特卡洛方法,模拟汾渭地震带未来30、50、100年等不同时长的地震目录,并对其进行统计检验。分析表明,模拟地震目录符合设定的地震活动性参数和泊松分布假设特征。依据模拟地震目录,对未来该区域地震趋势进行了分析,以期为地震危险性分析提供参考。