The proper motion VS redshift relation for superluminal radio sources

Two models for superluminal radio sources predict sharp lower bounds for the apparent velocities of separation. The light echo model predicts a minimum velocityv _min=2c, and the dipole field model predictsv _min=4.446c. Yahil (1979) has suggested that, if either of these models is correct, thenv _min provides a standard velocity which can be used to determine the cosmological parametersH andq ₀. This is accomplished by estimating a lower envelope for the proper motion vs redshift relation. Yahil also argued that the procedure could easily be generalized to include a nonzero cosmical constant . We derive the formulas relating the proper motion to the redshiftz in a Friedmann universe with a nonzero . We show that the determination of a lower envelope for a given sample of measured points yields an estimate of the angle of inclination _i for each source in the sample. We formulate the estimation of the lower envelope as a constrained maximum likelihood problem with the constraints specified by the expected value of the largest order statistic for the estimated _i . We solve this problem numerically using an off-the-shelf nonlinearly constrained nonlinear optimization program from the NAg library. Assuming =0, we apply the estimation procedure to a sample of 27 sources with measured values , using both the light echo and the dipole field models. The fits giveH=103 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 for the light echo model andH=46 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 for the dipole field model. In both cases the fits giveq ₀=0.4, but the uncertainty in this result is too large to rule out the possibility thatq ₀>0.5. When is allowed to be a free parameter, we obtainH=105 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 for the light echo model andH=47 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 for the dipole field model. In both cases the fits giveq ₀=–1 and /H ₀ ² =6.7, but no significance can be attached to these results because of the paucity of measured data at hight redshifts. For all of the fits, we compute the corresponding estimates of the _i and compare the cumulative distribution of these values with that expected from a sample of randomly oriented sources. In all cases we find a large excess of sources at low-inclination angles (high apparent velocities). The expected selection effect would produce such an excess, but the excess is large enough to suggest a strong contamination of the sample by relativistic beam sources which would only be seen at low inclination angles.Applied Research Corporation     

Sensitivity of the Eastern Mediterranean geomorphic system towards environmental change during the Late Holocene: a chronological perspective

Alluvial and colluvial sediment deposition provide a vital record of environmental change during the Holocene. Firm chronological control on these archives is necessary to enable us to relate sediment dynamics to human activity and climate variability. In the Eastern Mediterranean, such relationships are hard to establish due to the lack of spatially well‐distributed sediment archives with good chronological control. This scarcity is problematic with respect to regional‐scale reconstructions of the temporal variation of sediment dynamics. Here, we present a radiocarbon database (n = 178) of geomorphological activity collected from multiple distinct sediment archives within the territory of Sagalassos in south‐western Turkey. The data were grouped according to their sedimentary facies for analysis using cumulative probability distributions (CPDs) and sedimentation rate (SR) modelling. Two small‐scale colluvial valleys, where chronological information was abundant, were investigated in more detail. Results show that sedimentation chronology differs between individual, nearby cores, as it depends strongly on the local geomorphic situation. A generalizing approach combining multiple core results yields more widely valid conclusions. High sedimentation rates coincided with the initial major anthropogenic disturbance of the landscape and decreased afterwards, probably due to hillslope soil depletion. CPD and SR analysis indicates that in general colluvial sedimentation rates did not change much from 2000 BC onwards. River floodplain sedimentation, in contrast, increased markedly during the first millennium BC and during recent times, and a significant time lag in enhanced sediment deposition between the upper and lower reaches of the river valleys was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of low-viscous layers and a non-zero obliquity on surface stresses induced by diurnal tides and non-synchronous rotation: The case of Europa

In this study we present a semi-analytical Maxwell-viscoelastic model of the variable tidal stress field acting on Europa’s surface. In our analysis, we take into account surface stresses induced by the small eccentricity of Europa’s orbit, the non-zero obliquity of Europa’s spin axis - both acting on a diurnal 3.55-days timescale - and the reorientation of the ice shell as a result of non-synchronous rotation (NSR). We assume that Europa’s putative ocean is covered by an ice shell, which we subdivide in a low-viscous and warm lower ice layer (asthenosphere, viscosity 10¹²-10¹⁷ Pa s), and a high-viscous and cold upper ice layer (lithosphere, viscosity 10²¹ Pa s).Viscoelastic relaxation influences surface stresses in two ways: (1) through viscoelastic relaxation in the lithosphere and (2) through the viscoelastic tidal response of Europa’s interior. The amount of relaxation in the lithosphere is proportional to the ratio between the period of the forcing mechanism and the Maxwell time of the high-viscous lithosphere. As a result, this effect is only relevant to surface stresses caused by the slow NSR mechanism. On the other hand, the importance of the viscoelastic response on surface stresses is proportional to the ratio between the relaxation time (τ_j) of a given viscoelastic mode j and the period of the forcing function. On a diurnal timescale the fast relaxation of transient modes related to the low viscosity of the asthenosphere can alter the magnitude and phase shift of the diurnal stress field at Europa’s surface. The effects are largest, up to 20% in magnitude and 7° in phase for ice rigidities lower than 3.487 GPa, when the relaxation time of the aforementioned transient modes approaches the inverse of the average angular rate of Europa’s orbit. On timescales relevant for NSR (>10⁴ years) the magnitude and phase shift of NSR surface stresses can be affected by viscoelastic relaxation of the ocean-ice boundary. This effect, however, becomes only important when the behavior of the lithosphere w.r.t. NSR approaches the fluid limit, i.e. for strong relaxation in the lithosphere. The combination of NSR and diurnal stresses for different amounts of viscoelastic relaxation of NSR stresses in the lithosphere leads to a large variety of global stress fields that can explain the formation of the large diversity of lineament morphologies observed on Europa’s surface. Variation of the amount of relaxation in the lithosphere is likely due to changes in the spin rate of Europa and/or the rheological properties of the surface.In addition, we show that a small obliquity(<1°) can have a considerable effect on Europa’s diurnal stress field. A non-zero obliquity breaks the symmetric distribution of stress patterns with respect to the equator, thereby affecting the magnitude and orientation of the principal stresses at the surface. As expected, increasing the value of Europa’s obliquity leads to larger diurnal stresses at the surface, especially when Europa is located 90° away from the nodes formed by the intersection of its orbital and equatorial planes.     

Impact of wind on the spatial distribution of rain over micro‐scale topography: numerical modelling and experimental verification

The wind‐driven‐rain effect refers to the redistribution of rainfall over micro‐scale topography due to the existence of local perturbed wind‐flow patterns. Rainfall measurements reported in the literature point to the fact that the wind‐driven‐rain distribution can show large variations over micro‐scale topography. These variations should be taken into account in hillslope hydrology, in runoff and erosion studies and in the design of rainfall monitoring networks. In practice, measurements are often not suitable for determining the wind‐driven‐rain distribution. Therefore, a few researchers have employed numerical modelling. In order to provide confidence in using numerical models, experimental verification for a range of different topographic features is imperative. The objective of this study is to investigate the adequacy of a two‐dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to predict the wind‐driven‐rain distribution over small‐scale topography. The numerical model is applied to a number of topographic features, including a succession of cliffs, a small isolated hill, a small valley and a field with ridges and furrows. The numerical results are compared with the corresponding measurement results reported in the literature. It is shown that two‐dimensional numerical modelling can provide a good indication of the wind‐driven‐rain distribution over each type of micro‐scale topography that is considered in this study. It is concluded that more detailed verification procedures are currently inhibited due to the lack of available and detailed spatial and temporal rainfall data from field measurements. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.     

Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.     

Stratification and water mass formation in the Arctic Ocean: some implications for the nutrient distribution

The mixing processes and the water formations (transformations) in the Arctic Ocean are reviewed and their influence on the stratification discussed. The relations between the stratification and the nutrient distribution are examined. The interactions between drifting sea ice and advected warmer and nutrient-rich waters favour an early biological activity. By contrast, in the central Arctic Ocean and over comparably deep shelf areas such as the northern Barents Sea, the possibilities for large productivity are more limited because of late melting, less nutrient supply, and in the central Arctic, less available light. The sedimentation of organic matter on the shelves and the remineralisation into cold, dense waters formed by brine rejection and draining off the shelves lead to a loss of nutrients to the deep waters, which must be compensated for by advection of nutrient rich waters to the Arctic Ocean.
Possible effects of a reduction of the river run-off on the stratification and the nutrient distribution are discussed.     

Linking hydrological, infinite slope stability and land-use change models through GIS for assessing the impact of deforestation on slope stability in high Andean watersheds

In the Ecuadorian Andes, episodic slope movements comprising shallow rotational and translational slides and rapid flows of debris and soil material are common. Consequently, not only considerable financial costs are experienced, but also major ecological and environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area. Sediment production by slope movement on hillslopes directly affects sediment transport and deposition in downstream rivers and dams and morphological changes in the stream channels. In developing countries world-wide, slope movement hazards are growing: increasing population pressure and economic development force more people to move to potentially hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture and rangelands.This paper describes the methods used to determine the controlling factors of slope failure and to build upon the results of the statistical analysis a process-based slope stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple subsurface flow model. The model provides a time-varying estimate of slope movement susceptibility, by linking land-use data with spatially varying hydrologic (soil conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and soil strength properties. The slope stability model was applied to a high Andean watershed (Gordeleg Catchment, 250 ha, southern Ecuadorian Andes) and was validated by calculating the association coefficients between the slope movement susceptibility map of 2000 and the spatial pattern of active slope movements, as measured in the field with GPS. The proposed methodology allows assessment of the effects of past and future land-use change on slope stability. A realistic deforestation scenario was presented: past land-use change includes a gradual fragmentation and clear cut of the secondary forests, as observed over the last four decades (1963–2000), future land-use change is simulated based on a binary logistic deforestation model, whereby it was assumed that future land-use change would continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37 years (1963–2000).