Climate, weather, and north polar observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mars Color Imager

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter observes Mars from a nearly circular, polar orbit. From this vantage point, the Mars Color Imager extends the ∼5 Mars years record of Mars Global Surveyor global, visible-wavelength multi-color observations of meteorological events and adds measurements at three additional visible and two ultraviolet wavelengths. Observations of the global distribution of ozone (which anti-correlates with water vapor) and water ice and dust clouds allow tracking of atmospheric circulation. Regional and local observations emphasize smaller scale atmospheric dynamics, especially those related to dust lifting and subsequent motion. Polar observations detail variations related to the polar heat budget, including changes in polar frosts and ices, and storms generated at high thermal contrast boundaries.     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

The Wave-Front Correction System for the Sunrise Balloon-Borne Solar Observatory

This paper describes the wave-front correction system developed for the Sunrise balloon telescope, and it provides information about its in-flight performance. For the correction of low-order aberrations, a Correlating Wave-Front Sensor (CWS) was used. It consisted of a six-element Shack??C?Hartmann wave-front sensor (WFS), a fast tip-tilt mirror for the compensation of image motion, and an active telescope secondary mirror for focus correction. The CWS delivered a stabilized image with a precision of 0.04?arcsec (rms), whenever the coarse pointing was better than ???45?arcsec peak-to-peak. The automatic focus adjustment maintained a focus stability of 0.01?waves in the focal plane of the CWS. During the 5.5?day flight, good image quality and stability were achieved during 33?hours, containing 45?sequences, which lasted between 10 and 45?min.     

Evaluating local population dynamics of the American lobster,Homarus americanus,with trap‐based mark‐recapture methods and seabed mapping

Seabed mapping, spatially referenced trapping, and mark‐recapture methods have all been useful tools in ecological studies of lobsters and other benthic animals. Here we integrate the three methods to evaluate local population dynamics and movements of American lobsters, Homarus americanus, in coastal fishing grounds in Maine, United States. The study was conducted on five study areas of different size, and used two different sampling protocols. At one site (1 km² in area) we used a monthly mark‐recapture sampling interval over a 6‐month period, only tagging a subsample of the catch. At four smaller sites (0.3 km²) we used a shorter‐term approach, sampling at 3–4‐day intervals for a 2‐week duration, tagging the entire catch. Tagging data were analysed with a modified Jolly‐Seber model adapted for continuous sampling to estimate population abundance, gains (immigration), and losses (emigration and mortality). Side‐scan sonar surveys of the seabed combined with diver‐based population surveys, stratified by substrate type, provided an independent comparison to mark‐recapture‐based estimates of abundance over the same areas. Spatial referencing of trap catch also allowed us to relate catch rates and lobster movements directly to seabed features. The longer‐term tagging data on the larger study area provided abundance estimates that were more consistent with the diver observations, and estimates of gains and losses statistically more robust, than those derived from the shorter‐term effort on the smaller sites. The flux of lobsters followed the well known seasonal movements on these fishing grounds, with gains and losses from the larger study area ranging over 1000 individuals per day, and an estimated mid‐summer peak density of >65 000 lobsters per km² (individuals >50 mm carapace length). This approach may lend itself to broader application with the American lobster.     

Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.