SWAT modeling with uncertainty and cluster analyses of tillage impacts on hydrological processes

The impacts of tillage practices, majorly conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT), on soil hydraulic properties have been studied in recent decades. In this paper, we incorporated an auto-calibration algorithm into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and calibrated the model at eight field sites with soil water content (SWC) observations in the Pataha Creek Watershed, WA, USA. The Green–Ampt method in SWAT was chosen to determine infiltration and surface runoff. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by “relatively optimal” parameter sets filtered by a critical objective function value. Cluster analysis was adopted to obtain equal-sized parameter sets for each site and to compare parameter sets between tillage practices. The centers of these clusters were employed as a sample of parameter values. The clustered parameter sets were then used in scenario analysis to examine the impacts of cropland tillage practices on lateral flow, runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The model parameters (e.g., soil hydraulic properties) were significantly different between CT and NT. In particular, higher bulk density, larger available water capacity, and higher effective hydraulic conductivity were found for NT than for CT. SWCs at three depths of the NT sites were significantly higher than those of CT sites, which could be attributed to tillage practices. However, higher available water capacity at NT sites indicated that the NT soil had a higher capacity to hold water. Thus the mean net changes in SWC during a year were not significantly different between CT and NT. The statistically different model parameters neither resulted in statistical differences in annual outputs (e.g., runoff and ET) nor substantial differences in monthly outputs. Our study indicates that the tillage impacts on hydrological processes are site-specific and scale-dependent.     

Numerical simulations to assess thermal potential at Tauranga low-temperature geothermal system,New Zealand

Tauranga low-temperature geothermal system (New Zealand) has been used for the last 40 years for direct uses including space heating, bathing and greenhouses. Warm-water springs in the area are between 22 and 39 °C, with well temperatures up to 67 °C at 750 m depth. A heat and fluid flow model of the system is used to determine reservoir properties and assess thermal potential. The model covers 130 km by 70 km to 2 km depth, and was calibrated against temperatures measured in 17 wells. Modelling shows that to maintain the observed primarily conductive heat flow regime, bulk permeability is ≤2.5?×?10^?14 m² in sedimentary cover and ≤1?×?10^?16 m² in the underlying volcanic rocks. The preferred model (R ²?=?0.9) corresponds to thermal conductivities of 1.25 and 1.8 W/m² for sedimentary and volcanic rocks, respectively, and maximum heat flux of 350 mW/m². The total surface heat flow is 258 MW over 2,200 km². Heat flux is highest under Tauranga City, which may be related to inferred geology. Model simulations give insights into rock properties and the dynamics of heat flow in this low-temperature geothermal system, and provide a basis to estimate the effects of extracting hot fluid.     

On the relationship between spatial patterns of sea‐ice type and the mechanisms which create and maintain the North Water (NOW) polynya

Abstract

Polynyas represent polar oceanic areas with anomalous low sea‐ice concentrations. The North Water (NOW) Polynya refers to a region at the northern end of Baffin Bay which encompasses three separate polynyas. This paper examines the spatial patterns of sea‐ice cover within the NOW region during the winter, spring and fall of 1998 in the context of polynya formation and maintenance mechanisms. To accomplish this a sea‐ice classification scheme for RADARSAT‐1 ScanSAR imagery, obtained between 21 January and 7 December 1998, was developed and implemented within a Geographic Information System (GIS).

The results identify a clear and consistent spatial structure of sea‐ice cover throughout the winter, spring and fall of 1998. Temporally, the polynya opened southward along the Canadian coast and westward away from the Greenland coast. Comparison with parallel oceanographic, atmospheric and ice motion studies suggested that the polynya was primarily controlled by a latent heat mechanism with the exception of the west Greenland coast between Whale Sound and Cape York. The underlying mechanism used to explain the polynya's occurrence along this location is delayed ice formation during freeze‐up and a resultant thinner winter ice cover causing earlier spring ablation than surrounding areas. Arguments for oceanic and/or atmospheric sensible heat contributions are made.     

The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope Deep Impact observations: Light curve, ejecta expansion rates and water spectral features

We present results from the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope observations of the impact of Deep Impact with Comet 9P/Tempel 1, on July 4, 2005 UT. These observations were carried out in conjunction with the worldwide observing campaign co-ordinated by K.J. Meech [Meech, K.J., and 208 colleagues, 2005. Science 310, 265-269]. The UKIRT team was the first to observe and announce the successful impact. At 05:50:52 (±2.5 s) UT the visible camera that is used to guide the telescope on the comet showed the start of a rapid rise in intensity, such that the visible brightness of Tempel 1 approximately doubled in 70 s. After that time there was a steady increase in the visible flux from the comet until it reached a maximum around 35 min post-impact, at which point it was more than ten times its original intensity. From an average of the time to maximum brightness and the time to noticeable intensity decline, we deduce that the material ejected by the impact expanded with a range of velocities between ∼125 and ∼390 m/s. We also observed water emission lines in the spectral region from 2.8945 to 2.8985 μm. We noted several water lines, which are known to be pumped by sunlight. But there was a lower intensity spectral component, which we propose may result from solar heating of icy grains freshly exposed by the impact.     

On the winter evolution of snow thermophysical properties over land‐fast first‐year sea ice

The geophysical, thermodynamic and dielectric properties of snow are important state variables that are known to be sensitive to Arctic climate variability and change. Given recent observations of changes in the Arctic physical system (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004), it is important to focus on the processes that give rise to variability in the horizontal, vertical and temporal dimensions of the life‐history of snow on sea ice. The objectives in this study are to present these ‘state’ variables and to investigate the processes that govern variability in the vertical, horizontal and temporal dimension by using a case study over land‐fast first‐year sea ice for the period December 2003 to June 2004. Results from two sampling areas (thin and thick snowpacks) show that differences in snowpack thickness can substantially change the vertical and temporal evolution of snow properties. During the late fall and early winter (cooling period) we measured no significant changes in the physical properties, except for thin snow‐cover salinity, which decreased throughout the period. Fall‐snow desalination was only observed under thin snowpacks with a rate of ?0·12 ppt day^?1. Significant changes occurred in the late winter and early spring (warming period), especially for snow grain size. Snow grain kinetic growth of 0·25–0·48 mm·day^?1 was measured coincidently with increasing salinity and wetness for both thin and thick snowpacks. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LunarEX—a proposal to cosmic vision

While the surface missions to the Moon of the 1970s achieved a great deal, scientifically much was also left unresolved. The recent plethora of lunar missions (flown or proposed) reflects a resurgence in interest in the Moon, not only in its own right, but also as a record of the early solar system including the formation of the Earth. Results from recent orbiter missions have shown evidence of ice or at least hydrogen within shadowed craters at the lunar poles.     

Resolving the Degeneracy: Experimental Tests of the New Self Creation Cosmology and a Heterodox Prediction for Gravity Probe B

The new theory of Self Creation Cosmology has been shown to yield a concordant cosmological solution that does not require inflation, exotic non-baryonic Dark matter or unknown Dark Energy to fit observational constraints. In vacuo there is a conformal equivalence between this theory and canonical General Relativity and as a consequence an experimental degeneracy exists as the two theories predict identical results in the standard tests. However, there are three definitive experiments that are able to resolve this degeneracy and distinguish between the two theories. Here these standard tests and definitive experiments are described. One of the definitive predictions, that of the geodetic precession of a gyroscope, has just been measured on the Gravity Probe B satellite, which is at the present time of writing in the data processing stage. This is the first opportunity to falsify Self Creation Cosmology. The theory predicts a ‘frame-dragging’ result equal to GR but a geodetic precession of only 2/3 the GR value. When applied to the Gravity Probe B satellite, Self Creation Cosmology predicts an E–W gravitomagnetic/frame-dragging precession, equal to that of GR, of 40.9 milliarcsec/yr but a N–S gyroscope (geodetic + Thomas) precession of just 4.4096 arcsec/yr.