含流体致密砂岩的纵波频散及衰减:基于双重双重孔隙结构模型描述的特征分析

致密砂岩普遍具有低孔、低渗及微裂缝发育的地质特征,并且呈现出很强的非均匀性.致密砂岩储层与常规砂岩储层比较,具有明显的岩石物理性质、渗流力学性质方面的差异.致密砂岩内部的非均匀性对弹性波频散、衰减有显著影响,其中包括孔隙结构的非均匀性,即岩石内部孔隙参数的不均一性,以及孔隙内部不相混溶流体的非均匀分布;此外,非均匀性的尺度也决定了波出现显著频散与衰减的频段.综合考虑致密砂岩孔隙结构非均匀性及流体斑块状饱和的非均匀性,本文采用双双重孔隙介质结构模拟了致密砂岩的弹性波响应,分析了同时具备两类非均质性岩石中的波传播特征.调查分析了两组分别来自中国鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格气田及四川盆地广安气田的不同类型致密砂岩储层的岩芯超声波实验数据,给出了岩石样本的弹性波速度频散与衰减曲线.结果显示理论模型预测结果与完全饱和、部分饱和岩石的实验数据吻合良好.对两个地区致密砂岩岩芯数据进行对比分析,苏里格致密砂岩样本总体上比广安致密砂岩渗透率高,在各孔隙度范围内,特征模拟显示苏里格样本的裂隙尺寸明显大于广安样本.广安致密砂岩在低孔隙度范围内发育了更多、更小的颗粒裂隙/接触.致密砂岩的速度频散与衰减结果受流体黏度、晶体破裂及流体斑块状饱和的共同影响.此外,孔隙度越大,部分饱和岩石中斑块状饱和机制对总衰减的贡献越低,与之相对,结构非均质性所占的比重则有所增强.     

层状半空间中周期分布凸起地形对平面SH波的散射

提出了一种新的以层状半空间中周期分布斜线荷载动力格林函数为基本解的间接边界元方法,研究了周期分布凸起地形对平面SH波的散射问题.方法将散射波场分解为凸起内部散射波场和凸起外部散射波场.凸起内部散射波场通过在凸起闭合边界上施加虚拟斜线荷载产生的动力响应来模拟,而凸起外部散射波场则通过在凸起与半空间交界面上施加虚拟周期分布斜线荷载产生的动力响应来模拟.周期分布斜线荷载动力格林函数的引入,使得本文方法仅需针对一个凸起进行边界单元的离散和求解,便可完成问题的求解,避免了通过截断无限边界求解而引入的误差,方法具有较高精度的同时显著降低了求解自由度.文中通过与已有结果的比较,验证了方法的正确性,并以均匀半空间和基岩上单一土层中周期分布凸起为例进行了数值计算分析.研究表明,凸起间距对凸起地形间的动力相互作用有着显著的影响,同时层状半空间中周期分布凸起地形对SH波的散射与均匀半空间情况也有着显著的差别.

     

计算机2000年问题对地震观测的影响及其预防方法

简要分析了计算机２０００ 年问题对地震观测的影响．这些影响主要表现在各种应用软件方面．提出了几种预防方法,除了更换必要的观测仪器之外,还要解决各类软件的２０００ 年问题     

Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system

Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term.     

Carbon geochemistry of serpentinites in the Lost City Hydrothermal System (30°N, MAR)

The carbon geochemistry of serpentinized peridotites and gabbroic rocks recovered at the Lost City Hydrothermal Field (LCHF) and drilled at IODP Hole 1309D at the central dome of the Atlantis Massif (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 30°N) was examined to characterize carbon sources and speciation in oceanic basement rocks affected by long-lived hydrothermal alteration. Our study presents new data on the geochemistry of organic carbon in the oceanic lithosphere and provides constraints on the fate of dissolved organic carbon in seawater during serpentinization. The basement rocks of the Atlantis Massif are characterized by total carbon (TC) contents of 59 ppm to 1.6 wt% and δ¹³C_TC values ranging from −28.7‰ to +2.3‰. In contrast, total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and isotopic compositions are relatively constant (δ¹³C_TOC: −28.9‰ to −21.5‰) and variations in δ¹³C_TC reflect mixing of organic carbon with carbonates of marine origin. Saturated hydrocarbons extracted from serpentinites beneath the LCHF consist of n-alkanes ranging from C₁₅ to C₃₀. Longer-chain hydrocarbons (up to C₄₀) are observed in olivine-rich samples from the central dome (IODP Hole 1309D). Occurrences of isoprenoids (pristane, phytane and squalane), polycyclic compounds (hopanes and steranes) and higher relative abundances of n-C₁₆ to n-C₂₀ alkanes in the serpentinites of the southern wall suggest a marine organic input. The vent fluids are characterized by high concentrations of methane and hydrogen, with a putative abiotic origin of hydrocarbons; however, evidence for an inorganic source of n-alkanes in the basement rocks remains equivocal. We propose that high seawater fluxes in the southern part of the Atlantis Massif likely favor the transport and incorporation of marine dissolved organic carbon and overprints possible abiotic geochemical signatures. The presence of pristane, phytane and squalane biomarkers in olivine-rich samples associated with local faults at the central dome implies fracture-controlled seawater circulation deep into the gabbroic core of the massif. Thus, our study indicates that hydrocarbons account for an important proportion of the total carbon stored in the Atlantis Massif basement and suggests that serpentinites may represent an important—as yet unidentified—reservoir for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from seawater.     

Shifts of means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperatures in climate projections

Changes in the severity of extreme weather events under the influence of the enhanced greenhouse effect could have disproportionally large effects compared to changes in the mean climate. Here, we explored the meteorological circumstances of extremes and changes therein using two 49-member climate model ensembles for reference (1961–1990) and scenario (2051–2080) greenhouse-gas concentrations. We have focused on daily-mean surface-air temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere in January. Over large parts of the continents, changes in the one-in-10-year temperature events are influenced at least as much by changes in the shape of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) as by shifts in the mean. In coastal areas, this is largely attributable to changes in the large-scale circulation, for those types of extremes linked to infrequent wind directions. In other areas, the inhomogeneous mean warming, increasing inland and polewards, affects the tails of the local temperature PDFs. Temperature extremes in widely different regions were found to be linked by a large-scale circulation anomaly pattern, which resembles the Arctic Oscillation. In the scenario ensemble, this anomaly pattern favors its positive phase, leading to enhanced probabilities of westerly winds in a belt around the Northern Hemisphere.     

Further study of changes in thermospheric molecular oxygen abundance inferred from twilight 6300 Å airglow

Measurements of the [OI] 6300 Å twilight airglow during 1973 near Boulder, Colorado, show a strong dependence upon geomagnetic activity for the morning enhancement at solar depression angles where production of O¹D) is due primarily to photodissociation of O₂ and local photoelectron excitation. Analysis indicates that photodissociation is the dominant source; hence we infer a well defined magnetic dependence for the O₂/N₂ concentration ratio in the thermosphere. A seasonal variation in the twilight enhancement intensity is barely evident, in contrast with earlier observations made near solar maximum; the smaller variation is associated with a corresponding reduction in the seasonal variation of geomagnetic activity.     

High-resolution mean sea surface computed with altimeter data of Ers-1 (geodetic mission) and topex-poseidon

The remote-sensing satellite ERS-1, launched in 1991 to study the Earth's environment, was placed on a geodetic (168-day repeat) orbit between 1994 April and 1995 March to map, through altimetric measurements, the gravity field over the whole oceanic domain with a resolution of 8 km at the equator in both along-track and cross-track directions. We have analysed the precise altimeter data of the geodetic mission, and, by also using one year of Topex-Poseidon altimeter data, we have computed a global high-resolution mean sea surface. The various steps involved in pre-processing the ERS-1 data consisted of correcting the data for environmental factors, editing, and reducing, through crossover analyses, the radial orbit error, which directly affects sea-surface height measurements. For this purpose, we adjusted sinusoids at 1 and 2 cycle rev⁻¹ along the ERS-1 profiles in order to minimize crossover differences between ERS-1 and yearly averaged Topex-Poseidon profiles. In effect, the orbit of Topex-Poseidon is very accurately determined (within 2–3 cm for the radial component), so Topex-Poseidon altimeter profiles can serve as a reference to reduce the ERS-1 radial orbit error. The ERS-1 residual orbit error was further reduced through a second crossover analysis between all ascending and descending profiles of the geodetic mission. The along-track ERS-1 and Topex-Poseidon data were then interpolated over the whole oceanic domain on a regular grid of 1/16°× 1/16° size. The mapping of the gridded sea-surface heights reveals the very fine structure of the marine geoid, up until now unknown at a global scale. This new data set will be most useful for marine geophysical and tectonic investigations.     

基于水动力条件的矿山泥石流成因与特征——以石棉县后沟为例

四川省石棉县后沟是一条典型的高频矿山泥石流沟,坡面矿渣面蚀、沟道矿渣揭底和沟口尾矿侧蚀溃决是泥石流发生的三种主要成因.水动力条件通过对矿渣提供方式的影响而导致矿山泥石流在成因、规模等方面的差异.计算表明,单纯洪水难以对后沟尾矿库稳定性构成威胁,＜10 a一遇泥石流主要由坡面矿渣面蚀和沟道矿渣揭底引发,流量＜79 m3/s,沟口尾矿库基本不参与泥石流活动,泥石流规模以小型为主;10 a一遇和更大规模泥石流开始侧蚀尾矿坝,尾矿失稳垮塌补给泥石流,泥石流规模以中型甚至大型为主;后沟矿山泥石流特征主要表现为物源补给的集中性与固定性,形成过程的易发性与频发性,运动过程的单调性与重复性,成灾过程的相互性与链式性以及防治过程的可控性与多元性五个方面.     

基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域地表蒸散时空变化

基于2002～2009年期间的MODIS遥感数据和气象观测数据,运用能量平衡法计算博斯腾湖流域的地表蒸散量,蒸散平均绝对误差为12.39 mm,相对误差为14.15%。根据遥感反演结果分析了研究区地表蒸散的时空变化特征及其与降水、气温等气候因子的关系。博斯腾湖流域年地表蒸散表现出西北高东南低的空间分布格局,明显受到土地覆盖类型的影响。蒸散季节变化主要表现为单峰形式,夏季蒸散量占全年总蒸散量的48.10%。降水、气温对于博斯腾湖流域的地表蒸散变化有重要影响,并且在不同季节中两者的贡献度存在很大差异。