Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.     

A search for posteclipse brightening of Io in 1973. I

Eight eclipse reappearances of the innermost Galilean satellite, Io, were observed during the fall of 1973. The measurements were made using photometers specially designed to cope with the problem of scattered light from Jupiter. Posteclipse brightening of Io was not detected and, if present, was less than our estimated detection threshold of about 0.02 mag.     

Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)

Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.     

Seasonal patterns of suspended sediment load and erosion-transport assessment in a Mediterranean basin

ABSTRACT

To assess seasonal patterns of suspended sediment load and its erosion–transport interactions, 17 years of river monitoring data from the Isser River Basin (northwest Algeria) were studied, considering continuous and event-scale approaches. The results show significant differences in sediment yield and transport processes between dry and wet periods. A rate of 8 t ha^?1 year^?1 was estimated from continuous analysis, with values of 4.3 and 13 t ha^?1 year^?1 for wet and dry periods, respectively. Estimates of soil delivery ratio pointed to higher values during dry periods and the dominance of hillslope erosion processes. At the event scale, the hysteresis loops confirmed these seasonal patterns in transport dynamics. The calibration of the MUSLE model highlighted the severity of rainfall during the dry period. These results emphasize the importance of seasonality in erosion and transport processes with special relevance in terms of climate change predictions.     

Response of saturated and nearly saturated porous media: Different formulations and their applicability

The response of saturated porous medium is of significant interest in many fields ranging from geomechanics to biomechanics. Biot was the first to formulate the basic equations governing the process of coupled flow and deformation in porous media. Depending on the nature of loading vis‐à‐vis the characteristics of the media, different formulations (fully dynamic, partly dynamic, quasi‐static) are possible. In this study, analytical solutions are developed for the response of saturated and nearly saturated porous media under plane strain condition. The solutions for different formulations are developed in terms of non‐dimensional parameters. The response is studied for various conditions and the regions of validity for various formulations are identified in a parametric space. An assessment of the needed formulation for few important problems is also presented. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of local geological conditions on the macroseismic effects in the town of Strazhitza

Damage caused by the earthquake of 7 December 1986 (M = 5.7) and its aftershocks in low-storey residential buildings in the town of Strazhitza, Bulgaria, situated in the epicentral zone are systematized. A scale of damages is compiled for two types of buildings which is coordinated with the MSK-64 scale. The territorial distribution of the seismic intensity is compared with the results of the detailed engineering-geological study. A correlation between the Quarternary deposit thickness and the observed seismic intensity is obtained.Paper presented at the 21st general assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.     

Underwater sounds near a fuel receiving facility in western Hong Kong: relevance to dolphins

Western Hong Kong is home to two species of marine mammals: Indo-Pacific humpbacked dolphins (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides). Both are threatened in many parts of their range in southeast Asia [for example, International Biological Research Institute Reports 9 (1997), 41; Asian Marine Biology 14 (1997) 111]. In 1998, when the new Hong Kong International Airport opened in western Hong Kong, small tankers (about 100 m long, cargo capacity about 6300 metric tons) began delivering fuel to the Aviation Fuel Receiving Facility (AFRF) just off Sha Chau Island, north of the airport. Calibrated sound recordings were taken over a 4-day period from a quiet, anchored boat at distances 80-2000 m from aviation fuel delivery activities at the AFRF. From the recordings, 143 sections were selected for analysis. Narrowband spectral densities on the sound pressures were computed, and one-third octave band levels were derived for center frequencies from 10 to 16,000 Hz. Broadband levels, viz. 10-20,000 Hz. were also computed. The results showed that the Sha Chau area is normally noisy underwater, with the lowest broadband levels measured corresponding to those expected during a storm at sea (sea state 6). This background noise is believed to come largely from heavy vessel traffic in the Urmston Road to the north and east of Sha Chau and from vessels in the Pearl River Estuary to the West. The sound levels from the AFRF tankers are comparable to the levels measured from similar- and smaller-sized supply vessels supporting offshore oil exploration. The strongest sounds recorded were from a tanker leaving the AFRF at distance 100 m from the hydrophone, for which the one-third octave band level at 100 Hz was 141 dB re 1 microPa (spectrum level 127 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz) and the 10-20,000 Hz broadband level was 146 dB. At distances of 100 m or more and frequencies above 300 Hz, the one-third octave band levels were less than 130 dB (spectrum level 111 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz) and decreased with increasing frequency and distance. At distances greater than about 500 m, AFRF-associated sounds were negligible, masked by the generally high noise level of the area and attenuated by poor transmission in the very shallow water (<10 m). Because it is believed that humpbacked dolphins and finless porpoises are not very sensitive to sounds below 300 Hz, the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AA) stipulated that dedicated terminal vessels not radiate underwater sounds at spectrum levels greater than 110 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz at frequencies above 300 Hz and distances greater than 300 m. The spectrum levels at 300 Hz and higher frequencies of sounds from the tankers arriving, departing, or off-loading at AFRF were less than 110 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz even at distances of 200 m or less. The AA stipulation was met. However, it is presently unknown whether the generally strong noise levels of western Hong Kong inhibit acoustically based feeding and communication, or result in increased stress or permanent shifts in hearing thresholds.     

Hydrosulfide/sulfide complexes of zinc to 250 °C and the thermodynamic properties of sphalerite

The solubility of synthetic ZnS_(cr) was measured at 25–250 °C and P = 150 bars as a function of pH in aqueous sulfide solutions (~ 0.015–0.15 m of total reduced sulfur). The solubility determinations were performed using a Ti flow-through hydrothermal reactor. The solubility of ZnS_(cr) was found to increase slowly with temperature over the whole pH range from 2 to ~ 10. The values of the Zn–S–HS complex stability constant, β, were determined for Zn(HS)₂⁰_(aq), Zn(HS)₃^?, Zn(HS)₄^2?, and ZnS(HS)^?. Based on the experimental values the Ryzhenko–Bryzgalin electrostatic model parameters for these stability constants were calculated, and the ZnS_(cr) solubility and the speciation of Zn in sulfide-containing hydrothermal solutions were evaluated. The most pronounced solubility increase, about 3 log units at m(S_total) = 0.1 for the temperatures from 25 to 250 °C, was found in acidic solutions (pH ~ 3 to 4) in the Zn(HS)₂⁰_(aq) predominance field. In weakly alkaline solutions, where Zn(HS)₃^? and Zn(HS)₄^2? are the dominant Zn–S–HS complexes, the ZnS_(cr) solubility increases by 1 log unit at the same conditions. It was found that ZnS(HS)^? and especially Zn(HS)₄^2? become less important in high temperature solutions. At 25 °C and m(S_total) = 0.1, these species dominate Zn speciation at pH > 7. At 100 °C and m(S_total) = 0.1, the maximum fraction of Zn(HS)₄^2? is only 20% of the total Zn concentration (i.e. at pH_t ~ 7.5), whereas at 350 °C and 3 <pH_t <10, the fraction of Zn(HS)₄^2? and ZnS(HS)^? is less than 0.05% and 2.5% respectively, of the total Zn concentration and Zn(HS)₂⁰ and Zn(HS)₃^? predominate. The measured equilibrium formation constants were combined with the literature data on the stability of Zn–Cl complexes in order to evaluate the concentration and speciation of Zn in chloride solutions. It was found that at acidic pH, and in more saline fluids having total chloride > 0.05 m, Zn–Cl complexes are responsible for hydrothermal Zn transport with no significant contribution of Zn–S–HS complexes. The hydrosulfide/sulfide complexes will play a more important role in lower salinity (< 0.05 m chloride) hydrothermal solutions which are characteristic of many epithermal ore depositing environments. The value of Δ_fG° (β-ZnS_(cr)) = ? 198.6 ± 0.2 kJ/mol at 25 °C was determined via solubility measurements of natural low-iron Santander (Spain) sphalerite.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.     

LA-ICP-MS heavy metal analyses of fish scales from sediments of the Oxbow Lake Certak of the Morava River (Czech Republic)

Heavy metal concentrations were studied in the scales of recent and subrecent (2–25 years old) fish buried in the oxbow lake sediments of the Morava River. The samples were taken from two cores up to 4-m deep and analysed using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and an electron microprobe analysis (EMPA). The results were compared with heavy metal concentrations of bulk samples of the embedding sediment. The study has revealed substantial differences in heavy metal contents existing between the recent and subrecent fish scales documenting an extreme rapidity of the diagenesis/fossilization processes. The most apparent features of the early fossilization include the quick loss of the mucous envelope, collagen and magnesium and an enormous increase in the heavy metal concentrations in particular iron, which is connected with a colour change. The variations in heavy metal contents in fish scales within a sample are attributed to variations in heavy metal content in the environment and variable amounts of organic matter in the embedding sediment. In contrast to the contamination of the embedding sediment, no general increase in heavy metal concentrations in fish scales was observed down to the cores. It is inferred that the rapid sorption stabilizes the biologic hydroxyapatite of the fish scales, which thus rapidly attain a thermodynamic equilibrium with the embedding water-saturated sediment. The results show that the processes of sorption, fossilization and stabilization of hydroxyapatite can act very quickly over a time scale of several years and represent thus a great advantage in the preservation of the original signals of the ancient environments.