Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Peculiarities of Dynamic Slip Nucleation in a Thin Granular Layer

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Granular media determine the dynamics of many natural systems including faults in the Earth’s crust. The paper addresses the laboratory...     

Principal Components Analysis of Rainfall and Associated Synoptic Models of the Southwest Monsoon over India

Summary  The summer monsoon circulation shows various spatial and temporal oscillations and often a combination of systems produces an integrated effect. In this study phases of the southwest (SW) monsoon have been identified in an objective manner with the help of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) of weekly rainfall anomalies. Mean composite charts have been prepared utilising all available upper air data (1977–1986) for each category of the SW monsoon epochs identified by the PCA. These sets of charts have been constructed for both the strong and weak phases associated with the first four significant principal components (PCs). A well defined east-west oriented trough system, extending from about 28° N Latitude/65° E Longitude to 20° N Latitude/90° E Longitude, in the lower levels, has been the main feature associated with the strong phase of the monsoon corresponding to PC I. The trough in the lower levels is more marked in the eastern half compared to the western half in both the sets of charts associated with strong phases of the monsoon related to the PC II and PC III. With PC II, the position of the troughs in the lower levels is further north of its location in PC III. The east-west trough system associated with the strong phase of PC IV has a large southward tilt with height. The charts corresponding to the weak phases of these PCs have synoptic features, such as the position of the trough close to the foothills of the Himalayas, and the shifting of middle and upper tropospheric anticyclones to the south. The study suggests an objective method of interpretation of principal components by utilising synoptic data. In addition, synoptic models and data sets corresponding to different phases of the monsoon can also be prepared in an objective manner by such PCA. Received July 18, 1997 Revised April 30, 1999     

Local provenance in rehabilitation of degraded landscapes: a case study from the Hawkesbury–Nepean catchment, Australia

Throughout Australia thousands of volunteers are engaged in Landcare projects that should help rehabilitate degraded landscapes. Many of these projects involve tree planting, but their seed is not necessarily of local provenance. Based on a survey of 85 Landcare groups working in the Hawkesbury–Nepean catchment, data were collected about Landcare groups' knowledge of their seed source, understanding of local provenance and the ecosystem in which they were planting trees and the source of funding for their projects. The findings from the study indicate that about one in five (21%) of the groups surveyed that introduced plant material were not aware of local provenance issues. Indirect indications were that a large number of Landcare groups state-wide may be doing more harm than good to the landscape while trying to rehabilitate it. The data also showed that one in seven (13%) of the groups funded by the Australian Government through the Natural Heritage Trust (NHT) had limited awareness of local provenance issues. With millions of dollars being spent on 'works on the ground', it would be prudent to allocate some funds to document and monitor current Landcare activities, so that the environmental outcomes can be quantified and more effective Landcare policies can be developed in the future.     

Relevance of Pentane- and Hexane-Utilizing Bacterial Indicators for Finding Hydrocarbon Microseepage: A Study from Jamnagar Sub-basin, Saurashtra, Gujarat, India

Mesozoic sediments are source rocks for nearly half the world’s hydrocarbon reserves. Hence, there is great interest in the oil industry to know the trap and sub-trappean sediment thickness and their extent in the trap covered regions of Jamnagar study area. The microbial prospecting method is applied in the Jamnagar sub-basin, Gujarat for evaluating the prospects for hydrocarbon exploration by investigating the anomalous abundance of n-pentane- and n-hexane-oxidizing bacteria of this area. A total of 150 near-surface soil samples were collected in Jamnagar sub-basin, Gujarat for the evaluation of hydrocarbon resource potential of the basin. In this study, bacterial counts for n-pentane-utilizing bacteria range between 1.09 × 10² and 9.89 × 10⁵ cfu/g and n-hexane-utilizing bacteria range between 1.09 × 10² and 9.29 × 10⁵ cfu/g. The adsorbed hydrocarbon gases consisting of ethane plus hydrocarbons (ΣC₂₊) of 1–977 ppb and n-pentane (nC₅) of 1–23 ppb. The integrated geomicrobial and adsorbed soil gas studies showed the anomalous hydrocarbon zones nearby Khandera, Haripur, and Laloi areas which could probably aid to assess the true potential of the basin. Integrated geophysical studies have shown that Jamnagar sub-basin of Saurashtra has significant sediment thickness below the Deccan Traps and can be considered for future hydrocarbon exploration.     

A geographical analysis of the Atalanti alluvial plain and coastline as the location of a potential tourist site, Bronze through Early Iron Age Mitrou, East-Central Greece

Tourism accounts for 15% of Greece’s gross domestic product. In the wake of a struggling economy many of Greece’s coastal villages have turned to tourism to supplement local economies. Preliminary analysis of structural and cultural materials recovered from an excavation on Mitrou, a small islet near the coastal village Tragana located 140 km north of Athens has established the site’s contribution to a fuller understanding of settlement practices in Central Greece from the end of the Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. The site’s historic importance combined with its scenic coastal setting has considerable potential to be developed into an important tourist site. The physical geography of the region is the product of the complex interaction of coastal, alluvial, fluvial, and seismic processes. This investigation integrates the archaeological material with a geographical analysis employing a variety of geographical techniques (soil and sediment analysis, past climatic data, environmental surveys, and geospatial modeling) to reconstruct the geomorphological history of the site and to evaluate the area as a potential tourist site.     

Joint inversion of temperature,vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite with examples from the eastern North Sea area

As sediment accumulation indicates basin subsidence, erosion often is understood as tectonic uplift, but the amplitude and timing may be difficult to determine because the sedimentary record is missing. Quantification of erosion therefore requires indirect evidence, for example thermal indicators such as temperature, vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite. However, as always, the types and quality of data and the choice of models are important to the results. For example, considering only the thermal evolution of the sedimentary section discards the thermal time constant of the lithosphere and essentially ignores the temporal continuity of the thermal structure. Furthermore, the types and density of thermal indicators determine the solution space of deposition and erosion, the quantification of which calls for the use of inverse methods, which can only be successful when all models are mutually consistent. Here, we use integrated basin modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of four deep boreholes to show that the erosional pattern along the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea is consistent with a tectonic model of tectonic inversion based on compression and relaxation of an elastic plate. Three wells in close proximity SW of the STZ have different data and exhibit characteristic differences in erosion estimates but are consistent with the formation of a thick chalk sequence, followed by minor Cenozoic erosion during relaxation inversion. The well on the inversion ridge requires ca. 1.7 km Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sedimentation followed by Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene erosion during inversion. No well demands thick Cenozoic sedimentation followed by equivalent significant Neogene exhumation. When data are of high quality and models are consistent, the thermal indicator method yields significant results with important tectonic and geodynamic implications.     

The impact of the Laacher See Volcano (11 000 yr B.P.) on terrestrial vegetation and diatoms

Late-glacial lake sediments containing the Laacher See Tephra (LST, 11 000 yr B.P.) have been analyzed for their pollen and diatom content at three sites at varying distances from the volcano and on different bedrock geologies. The aim was to test the null hypothesis that this major volcanic eruption had no effect on terrestrial pollen or aquatic diatom assemblages. The pollen spectra at all sites show a short-lived increase in grass pollen following the LST. Partial redundancy analysis and associated Monte Carlo permutation tests suggest, however, that the LST had no statistically significant effect at two sites but it had a statistically significant impact on the pollen assemblages at the site nearest (60 km) to the volcano.The diatom assemblages at the three sites changed individualistically after the LST deposition, with increases inAchnanthes minutissima at one site, an expansion ofAulacoseira species at another, and an increase ofAsterionella formosa andFragilaria brevistriata at the third site. Partial redundancy analysis and associated permutation tests suggest a statistically significant change in diatoms in relation to the LST and associated changes in sediment lithology at the one site situated on acidic bedrock. No significant impacts were found at the sites on volcanic or calcareous rocks. Due to the interaction between tephra and sediment lithology, it is not possible to conclude if the statistically significant diatom changes were a direct result of the LST deposition or an indirect result of lithological changes following LST deposition.This is the first paper in a series of papers published in this issue on high-resolution paleolimnology. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Paeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. F. Lotter and Dr. M. Sturm served as guest editors for these papers.