Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

Inverse problem in hydrogeology

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

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Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

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Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

     

Introductory review of specific factors influencing urban groundwater, an emerging branch of hydrogeology, with reference to Barcelona, Spain

A number of specific factors must be considered when dealing with groundwater in urban areas. Urbanization significantly affects the natural water cycle, both in terms of quantity and quality. In particular, the main contributors to recharge and discharge clearly differ from those in natural systems. Moreover, water can affect underground structures and infrastructure characteristics of cities such as basements, public transport services (trains, underground railways, etc.), and utility conduits. As a result, urban groundwater is emerging as a distinct branch of hydrogeology. The objective of this paper is to review some of the topics that are specific to urban groundwater. These include (1) fluctuations in groundwater levels caused by changes in land and water uses; (2) pollution problems caused by point or non-point sources in urban areas; (3) characterization and quantification of the components contributing to groundwater recharge and discharge; (4) specific characteristics of groundwater flow and solute transport models in urban areas; and (5) integration of data for sustainable urban water management. Some of these issues are illustrated for the particular case of Barcelona, where a comprehensive hydrogeological study has been carried out during the last few years by both the public and the private sectors.

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Resumen Se debe considerar una serie de factores específicos al tratar las aguas subterráneas en áreas urbanas. El proceso de urbanización afecta el ciclo natural del agua de manera significativa tanto en lo que se refiere a cantidad como a calidad. En particular, los contribuyentes principales a la recarga y descarga claramente difieren de aquellos aplicables a los sistemas naturales. Es más, el agua puede afectar los estructuras subterráneas de las ciudades tales como sótanos, servicios de transporte público (trenes, trenes subterráneos) y los servicios básicos. Como resultado de esto, la hidrogeologia urbana está emergiendo como una rama específica de la hidrogeología. El objectivo de este artículo es revisar algunos de los temas que son específicos al agua subterránea urbana. Estos incluyen: 1) Fluctuaciones en los niveles de agua subterránea causados por cambios en los usos de terreno y del agua; 2) Problemas de contaminación causados por fuentes puntuales o no puntuales en áreas urbanas; 3) Caracterización y cuantificación de los componentes que contribuyen a la recarga y descarga de agua subterránea; 4) Características especificas de flujo de agua subterránea y modelos de transporte de solutos en áreas urbanas; y 5) Integración de datos para el manejo sostenible de agua urbana. Algunos de estos puntos se han ilustrados para el caso particular de Barcelona en donde se ha llevado a cabo un estudio hidrogeológico amplio durante los últimos años tanto por el sector privado como el público.

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Résumé Une série de facteurs spécifiques doit être considérée lorsque leau souterraine en région urbaine est étudiée. Lurbanisation affecte significativement le cycle naturel de leau, autant du point de vue quantitatif que qualitatif. Plus particulièrement, les zones de recharge et de décharge diffèrent considérablement des systèmes naturels. Leau souterraine peut affecter les structures souterraines ainsi que les infrastructures municipales telles que les sous-sols, les systèmes de transport publique (trains, métros, ...) et les conduits de service. De ce fait, lhydrogéologie en milieu urbain émerge comme une branche distincte de lhydrogéologie classique. Lobjectif de cet article est de revoir certaines notions qui sont spécifiques à létude de leau souterraine en milieu urbain. Parmi ces notions : 1) les fluctuations de la nappe phréatique causées par des changements dans lutilisation du territoire et de leau, 2) les problèmes de pollution causés par des sources ponctuelles ou diffuses en milieu urbain, 3) la caractérisation et quantification des composants qui contribuent à la recharge et décharge des aquifères, 4) les caractéristiques spécifiques des modèles découlement de leau souterraine et de transport de solutés en milieux urbain, et 5) lintégration des données pour la gestion durable de leau en milieu urbain. Certaines de ces questions sont étudiées pour le cas particulier de la ville de Barcelone où une étude hydrogéologique complète a été menée au cours des dernières années par les secteurs privé et public.

     

On the Retrieval of Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from GOME Backscatter Measurements

We focus on the retrieval of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from an analysis of atmospheric UV backscatter spectra obtained by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) spectrometer on board the ESA European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). Here, the last major eruptions of Mt. Etna on Sicily (Italy) in July/August 2001 and October/November 2002 provided an excellent opportunity to study the retrieval of SO₂ columnar amounts from ground-based, LIDAR and satellite measurements. Our study shows that the bulk of emitted SO₂ was confined in the troposphere, mainly between 700 hPa and 400 hPa which is confirmed by trajectory analysis, by LIDAR observations and AVHRR observations. The area of influence of Mt. Etna eruptions ranges from the Western Saharan Desert to Greece and the near east states and even down to the basin of Tschad, Africa. Our analysis revealed that information about the plume height of volcanic eruptions and aerosol parameters is necessary for a reliable quantitative retrieval of SO₂ from space-borne sensor data at periods perturbed by volcanic eruptions.     

The macroinfauna of the Galician sandy beaches (NW Spain) affected by the Prestige oil-spill

Eighteen sandy beaches were sampled along the 1659 km of the Galician coast (NW Spain) six months after the Prestige oil-spill to study the impact of the fuel and the clean-up activities on the macroinfauna community. A transect was extended at each beach, from above the drift line to below the swash line at five sampled levels; at each level six 0.05 m2 replicates were taken to a depth of 30 cm and sieved through a 1mm mesh, and the organisms collected and preserved. Results were compared with previous data obtained using the same procedures. The macroinfauna was numerically dominated by the amphipod Pontocrates arenarius, the isopod genus Eurydice, the polychaete Scolelepis squamata, and the amphipod Talitrus saltator. As a result of the Prestige oil-spill and the clean-up activities, beach populations were reduced, with Eurydice and S. squamata as the most affected taxa.     

Surface area, porosity and water adsorption properties of fine volcanic ash particles

Our understanding on how ash particles in volcanic plumes react with coexisting gases and aerosols is still rudimentary, despite the importance of these reactions in influencing the chemistry and dynamics of a plume. In this study, six samples of fine ash (<100 m) from different volcanoes were measured for their specific surface area, a_s, porosity and water adsorption properties with the aim to provide insights into the capacity of silicate ash particles to react with gases, including water vapour. To do so, we performed high-resolution nitrogen and water vapour adsorption/desorption experiments at 77 K and 303 K, respectively. The nitrogen data indicated a_s values in the range 1.1–2.1 m²/g, except in one case where a a_s of 10 m²/g was measured. This high value is attributed to incorporation of hydrothermal phases, such as clay minerals, in the ash surface composition. The data also revealed that the ash samples are essentially non-porous, or have a porosity dominated by macropores with widths >500 Å. All the specimens had similar pore size distributions, with a small peak centered around 50 Å. These findings suggest that fine ash particles have relatively undifferentiated surface textures, irrespective of the chemical composition and eruption type. Adsorption isotherms for water vapour revealed that the capacity of the ash samples for water adsorption is systematically larger than predicted from the nitrogen adsorption a_s values. Enhanced reactivity of the ash surface towards water may result from (i) hydration of bulk ash constituents; (ii) hydration of surface compounds; and/or (iii) hydroxylation of the surface of the ash. The later mechanism may lead to irreversible retention of water. Based on these experiments, we predict that volcanic ash is covered by a complete monolayer of water under ambient atmospheric conditions. In addition, capillary condensation within ash pores should allow for deposition of condensed water on to ash particles before water reaches saturation in the plume. The total mass of water vapour retained by 1 g of fine ash at 0.95 relative water vapour pressure is calculated to be ~10^–2 g. Some volcanic implications of this study are discussed.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

Field assessment of innovative sensor for monitoring of sediment accumulation at inshore coral reefs

Sediment accumulation rate is a frequently required parameter in environmental and management studies, in particular near coral reefs where sediment accumulation can potentially cause severe impact. However, opportunities to obtain accurate sediment accumulation measurements are often limited by a lack of adequate instrumentation, in particular for high temporal resolution monitoring. For instance the traditional use of sediment traps, as the most widespread technique, offers poor temporal resolution (commonly of weeks) besides having significant hydrodynamic shortcomings. Therefore, a new optical backscatter sediment accumulation sensor (SAS) was developed to continuously measure in situ short-term sediment accumulation in sensitive riverine and coastal environments, enabling high temporal and vertical resolution (order of 1 h and with a deposited thickness resolution in the order of 20 microm respectively). This allows investigations of various parameters that influence accumulation: tides, current, waves, rain, or anthropogenic activity such as sediment dumping. This paper briefly describes the SAS and presents three field applications on nearshore coral reefs at Ishigaki Island (Japan), Lihir Island (Papua New Guinea), and Magnetic Island (Australia).     

Effects of 12 years' operation of a sewage treatment plant on trace metal occurrence within a Mediterranean commercial sponge (Spongia officinalis, Demospongiae)

The present field study uses Spongia officinalis for assessing trace metals occurrence in time and space within Mediterranean rocky communities. Nine sites were selected in the Marseille area for studying spatial trends in 12 metal concentrations. Long term changes in 8 metal concentrations were assessed at sites that had been sampled before and 12 years after the opening of a treatment plant. Spongia officinalis highly concentrated all the trace metal surveyed excepted Hg and Cd. The overall contamination level registered provided a classification of the study sites which is congruent with that given by other studies on pollutant accumulation in neighbouring sandy-bottoms or benthic assemblages. Among the metals studied, Fe, Pb, Cr are those that best highlighted a pollution gradient. In the present study, only Cd concentration did not vary in space. Except for Ni, all pollutant concentrations clearly decreased between 1984 and 1999. This very impressive decrease in heavy metal concentrations within the Marseille area represents an indisputable evidence of the improvement of the seawater quality resulting from 12 years' operation of the Marseille sewage plant. Moreover, the significant decrease also recorded in the reference population at Port-Cros might reflect an overall improvement in the seawater quality of the NW Mediterranean.     

Compression of ephemerides

Approximations in the normL ₁ by Chebyshev polynomials are generated to represent astronomical ephemerides over large intervals of time.     

Corrections to the improved lunar ephemeris

Based primarily upon the formation of new conditional equations using analytical partial derivatives of the moon's mean elements, meridian circle observations of the moon from 1952–67 have been examined to determine corrections to the constants of lunar theory and to the fundamental coordinate system (FK4). With certain exceptions, the new corrections are in agreement with those published earlier by the author. Systematic corrections to FK4 are surprisingly large, although in agreement with some other recent determinations. New corrections to the lunar ephemeris, resulting from the discussion, are also presented.