Evaluating the impacts of watershed management on runoff storage and peak flow in Gav-Darreh watershed,Kurdistan, Iran

Recently, water and soil resource competition and environmental degradation due to inadequate management practices have been increased and pose difficult problems for resource managers. Numerous watershed practices currently being implemented for runoff storage and flood control purposes have improved hydrologic conditions in watersheds and enhanced the establishment of riparian vegetation. The assessment of proposed management options increases management efficiency. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of watershed managements on runoff storage and peak flow, and determine the land use and cover dynamics that it has induced in Gav-Darreh watershed, Kurdistan, Iran. The watershed area is 6.27 km² which has been subjected to non-structural and structural measures. The implemented management practices and its impact on land use and cover were assessed by integrating field observation and geographic information systems (GIS). The data were used to derive the volume of retained water and determine reduction in peak flow. The hydrology of the watershed was modeled using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) model, and watershed changes were quantified through field work. Actual storms were used to calibrate and validate HEC–HMS rainfall–runoff model. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate pre- and post-management conditions in the watershed. The results derived from field observation and HEC–HMS model showed that the practices had significant impacts on the runoff storage and peak flow reduction.     

A new rating system approach for risk analysis of rock slopes

In this paper, an approach is presented to analyze the stability risk of rock slopes based on a new rating system. Three factors are used to estimate the risk level of rock slopes: (1) failure probability, (2) element at risk rating, and (3) vulnerability rating. Element at risk and vulnerability ratings are both given a range from 0 to 10, and the probability of failure is varied between 0 and 1, so the risk rating ranges between 0 and 100. This risk rating can be used to determine both the quantitative and qualitative risk levels of slopes at the same time. The method is tested on the western sector of the slopes facing Songun copper plant phase III, Iran, to clarify its procedures and assess its validity. Deterministic kinematic analyses showed that the slope has a potential for circular failure. Risk assessments revealed that the risk levels of the slope in both static and pseudo-static conditions are “very low” and “high,” respectively.

     

Inclusive Multiple Models(IMM) for predicting groundwater levels and treating heterogeneity

An explicit model management framework is introduced for predictive Groundwater Levels(GWL),particularly suitable to Observation Wells(OWs)with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The framework implements Multiple Models(MM)under the architecture of organising them at levels,as follows:(i)Level 0:treat heterogeneity in the data,e.g.Self-Organised Mapping(SOM)to classify the OWs;and decide on model structure,e.g.formulate a grey box model to predict GWLs.(ii)Level 1:construct MMs,e.g.two Fuzzy Logic(FL)and one Neurofuzzy(NF)models.(iii)Level 2:formulate strategies to combine the MM at Level 1,for which the paper uses Artificial Neural Networks(Strategy 1)and simple averaging(Strategy 2).Whilst the above model management strategy is novel,a critical view is presented,according to which modelling practices are:Inclusive Multiple Modelling(IMM)practices contrasted with existing practices,branded by the paper as Exclusionary Multiple Modelling(EMM).Scientific thinking over IMMs is captured as a framework with four dimensions:Model Reuse(MR),Hierarchical Recursion(HR),Elastic Learning Environment(ELE)and Goal Orientation(GO)and these together make the acronym of RHEO.Therefore,IMM-RHEO is piloted in the aquifer of Tabriz Plain with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The results provide some evidence that(i)IMM at two levels improves on the accuracy of individual models;and(ii)model combinations in IMM practices bring‘model-learning’into fashion for learning with the goal to explain baseline conditions and impacts of subsequent management changes.