Development and application of a stochastic optimization model for groundwater management: crop pattern and conjunctive use consideration

The need for irrigation water in arid and semi-arid regions is mostly supplied by groundwater. Furthermore, the agricultural development in these areas is not generally based on a comprehensive plan, which can cause aquifers depletion. On the other hand, to properly manage an aquifer and to have an optimal crop plan, the stochastic nature of the different parameters of a groundwater system such as groundwater recharge and water demands should be taken into consideration. In this paper, we develop an explicit stochastic optimization model for Firouzabad aquifer in Iran. This formulation is based on the first and second moment analysis for groundwater head which has been initially proposed for surface water resources management by Fletcher and Ponnambalam. We extend the model to create a new random withdrawal policy for conjunctive use setting in which the randomness in available precipitation is taken into account. The interesting point is that the model provides the respective probabilities of shortage and surplus without imposing the extra decision variables into the optimization model. A genetic-based algorithm is used to solve the stochastic nonlinear and non-convex formulation. The outcome results indicate that the current crop pattern should be changed, that is, the allocated areas of some crops have to be meaningfully reduced. Finally, to validate our model efficiency, we demonstrate that how much close the statistical characteristics obtained from the optimization model are to those estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the optimal benefits obtained using the proposed optimization model are as suitable as the benefits achieved using the corresponding Monte Carlo-based optimization model.     

Fault slip and identification of the second fault plane in the Varzeghan earthquake doublet

An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.     

Seismic modelling for reservoir studies: a comparison between convolutional and full-waveform methods for a deep-water turbidite sandstone reservoir

Two seismic modelling approaches, that is, two-dimensional pre-stack elastic finite-difference and one-dimensional convolution methods, are compared in a modelling exercise over the fluid-flow simulation model of a producing deep-water turbidite sandstone reservoir in the West of Shetland Basin. If the appropriate parameterization for one-dimensional convolution is used, the differences in three-dimensional and four-dimensional seismic responses from the two methods are negligible. The key parameters to ensure an accurate seismic response are a representative wavelet, the distribution of common-depth points and their associated angles of incidence. Conventional seismic images generated by the one-dimensional convolutional model suffer from lack of continuity because it only accounts for vertical resolution. After application of a lateral resolution function, the convolutional and finite-difference seismic images are very similar. Although transmission effects, internal multiples and P-to-S conversions are not included in our convolutional modelling, the subtle differences between images from the two methods indicates that such effects are of secondary nature in our study. A quantitative comparison of the (normalized root-mean-square) amplitude attributes and waveform kinematics indicates that the finite-difference approach does not offer any tangible benefit in our target-oriented seismic modelling case study, and the potential errors from one-dimensional convolution modelling are comparatively much smaller than the production-induced time-lapse changes.     

Assessing Submerged Vegetation Roughness in Streambed under Clear Water Condition Using Physical Modeling

Water Resources - Roughness coefficient, also called Manning’s coefficient, is one of the most important hydraulic parameters in the rivers. This coefficient, in addition to the flow...     

Combining Arc-GIS and OWA model in flooding potential analysis (case study: Meshkinshahr city)

Natural Hazards - “Streets have been turned into rivers”; this is a news headline which we have been hearing more often recently and refers to the floodwaters flowing into cities....     

The effects of uniform and nonuniform pile spacing variations on local scour at pile groups

Pile groups are frequently used to support bridge decks. Scour in the vicinity of piles is the main cause for the bridges failure. In this research, to address the effects of uniform and nonuniform pile spacing on the equilibrium scour depth, laboratory experiments were carried out under steady clear-water conditions. For this purpose, scour depth produced by pile group with various pile spacing and arrangement was investigated using a laboratory flume. Flume bed was covered by uniform sediments with a median size of 0.9?mm and 0.2?m thickness. Flow discharge and velocity as well as scour depth were recorded in each experiment and the data were analyzed. The results showed that the pile spacing influences the local scour depth and with increase in uniform and transverse (perpendicular to the flow) spacing, the maximum scour depth was reduced. The pile spacing variation in line with the flow has a minor effect on scour depth. In addition, the pile spacing perpendicular to the flow was with the most influences on scour depth. The results of this research can be used by engineers to optimize the design of bridges.     

Geochemical constraints on the provenance of Oligocene–Miocene siliciclastic deposits (Zivah Formation) of NW Iran: implications for the tectonic evolution of the Caucasus

In this study, the whole-rock geochemistry of 35 Oligocene–Miocene sandstone and shale samples from the Zivah Formation, Moghan area (NW Iran) were collected and analyzed for evaluation of their provenance, tectonic setting and the intensity of paleo-weathering. Low to moderate values of the chemical index of alteration (mean CIA?=?53/68 for sandstones/shales) and relatively high values of index of compositional variability (mean ICV?=?1.23/1.08 for sandstones/shales) suggest weak chemical weathering and an immature source. These results support for the semi-arid and semi-humid paleoclimate conditions in the source area. The geochemistry results reveal that the sediments were deposited in a basin related to the island arc and active continental margin tectonic settings, probably indicating the time of initial collision between Arabia and Eurasia. The enrichment of Cr, Ni and V in the sandstone and shales are consistent with mafic input from the source area. However, La/Th vs. Hf and La/Sc vs. Co/Th plots reveal mixed source of felsic and intermediate volcanic rocks. The data indicate that the sediments most likely originated from a mixture of mafic, intermediate and felsic igneous source areas, possibly as the erosional products of localized topography of the Talysh and the Lesser Caucasus mountains (south to southwest), created by compression in the Moghan region during the syn-collisional development of the Caucasus.     

Surface load dynamic solution of saturated transversely isotropic multilayer half-space

This paper treats the dynamic response of a multilayered transversely isotropic fluid saturated poroelastic half-space under surface time-harmonic traction. The governing system of partial differential equations is uncoupled with the use of a set of physically meaningful and complete potential functions that decompose different body waves in a saturated poroelastic transversely isotropic medium. After expressing the equations in the Hankel-Fourier domain, a proper algebraic factorization is applied to generate reflection and transmission matrices for decomposed waves. All responses including displacements, stresses, and pore fluid pressure for both general patch load and point load are presented in the form of semi-infinite line integrals. The verification of the method is confirmed with the degeneration of the solutions presented here to the existing solutions for dried both homogeneous and multilayered elastic half-spaces as well as poroelastic half-space. Selected numerical results are depicted to investigate the effects of layering and pore pressure on responses of a transversely isotropic poroelastic medium. The load distribution effects are studied by comparison of the patch and point load responses. Also, resonance notion and effective parameters on this phenomenon such as layering system and anisotropy contrast are discussed. Significant influence of materials and layering configuration on number and amplitude of resonances depicted through the numerical evaluation.     

Stability Analysis and the Stabilisation of Flexural Toppling Failure

Flexural toppling is a mode of failure that may occur in a wide range of layered rock strata in both rock slopes and large underground excavations. Whenever rock mass is composed of a set of parallel discontinuities dipping steeply against the excavated face plane, the rock mass will have the potential of flexural toppling failure as well. In such cases, the rock mass behaves like inclined superimposed cantilever beams that bend under their own weight while transferring the load to the underlying strata. If the bending stress exceeds the rock column’s tensile strength, flexural toppling failure will be initiated. Since the rock columns are “statically indeterminate,” thus, their factors of safety may not be determined solely by equations of equilibrium. The paper describes an analytical model with a sequence of inclined superimposed cantilever rock columns with a potential of flexural topping failure. The model is based on the principle of compatibility equations and leads to a new method by which the magnitudes and points of application of intercolumn forces are determined. On the basis of the proposed model, a safety factor for each rock column can be computed independently. Hence, every rock column will have a unique factor of safety. The least factor of safety that exists in any rock column is selected as the rock mass representative safety factor based on which simple equations are proposed for a conservative rock mass stability analysis and design. As a result, some new relations are established in order to design the length, cross-sectional area and pattern of fully grouted rock bolts for the stabilisation of such rock mass. Finally, the newly proposed equations are compared with the results of existing experimental flexural toppling failure models (base friction and centrifuge tests) for further verification.     

Groundwater recharge estimation in arid hardrock‐alluvium aquifers using combined water‐table fluctuation and groundwater balance approaches

This paper proposes an approach to estimate groundwater recharge using an optimization‐based water‐table fluctuation method combined with a groundwater balance model in an arid hardrock‐alluvium region, located at the Oman–United Arab Emirates border. We introduce an “effective hardrock thickness” term to identify the percentage of the considered hardrock thickness in which effective groundwater flow takes place. The proposed method is based upon a Thiessen polygon zoning approach. The method includes subpolygons to represent specific geologic units and to enhance the confidence of the estimated groundwater recharge. Two linear and 1 nonlinear submodels were developed to evaluate the model components for the calibration (October 1996 to September 2008) and validation (October 2008 to September 2013) periods. Long‐term annual groundwater recharge from rainfall and return flow over the model domain are estimated as 24.62 and 5.71 Mm³, respectively, while the effective groundwater flow circulation is found to occur in the upper 7% of the known hardrock thickness (42 m), confirming conclusions of previous field studies. Considering a total difference in groundwater levels between eastern and western points of the study area of the order of 220 m and a 12‐year monthly calibration period, a weighted root mean squared error in predicted groundwater elevation of 2.75 m is considered quite reasonable for the study area characterized by remarkable geological and hydrogeological diversity. The proposed approach provides an efficient and robust method to estimate groundwater recharge in regions with a complex geological setting in which interaction between fractured and porous media cannot be easily assessed.