<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.     

Investigation of moment-rotation relation in different joint types and evaluation of their effects on segmental tunnel lining

This paper presents the results of a numerical study that has been performed to investigate the different joint types that affect the moment-rotation relation and ultimate bending moment capacity of a joint. A 3D finite element method was adapted to establish elaborate numerical models of segments. To evaluate the possible differences in moment-rotation behavior between different joint types, 10 different joint types were simulated. Additionally, the effect of different joint types on behavior of a lining ring was investigated. The validity of the peridynamic simulation was tested by comparing results obtained in this paper against the results obtained in a study performed by Hordijk and Gijsbers. Observations of the results demonstrate that in a flat joint, the expanding of joint height increased the rotation stiffness of the joint in the linear branch, and accordingly, the ultimate bending moment of the joint increased. In the ring model, it was observed that the expanding of joint height led to the decreased of ring displacement and stress concentration in the joint. Whenever there were full surface contacts (contact two segment in total cross section) in the joints, the rotation stiffness of the joints in the linear branch became equal, and, as a result, the displacement in the ring model was the same in all joint types. In addition, it was observed that using a convex joint in the ring model increases the displacement of the ring. The ultimate bending moment of bolted joints was higher than that of joints without bolts, especially in the case of a negative moment.     

Characterization of the Tertiary reservoir in Khabbaz Oil Field,Kirkuk area,Northern Iraq

Tertiary reservoir represented by Jeribe, Anah, Azkand, and Azkand/Ibrahim formations has been studied from reservoir characterization point of view in Khabbaz Oil Field/Northern Iraq. Examined thin sections prepared from core rock samples which are selected from the wells Kz-8 and Kz-9 revealed the existence of different microfacies in which are varies types of porosity such as interparticle, intraparticle, moldic, vuggy, and fractures have been noticed. In addition to these different types of diagenetic features are represented mainly by cementation, dolomitization, recrystallization, and dissolution. The available log data for the wells Kz-11, Kz-14, and Kz-16 have been used in characterizing the reservoir properties of the studied formations. The detected lithologies from porosity logs showed domination of limestone, dolomitic limestone, and dolomites in addition to few thin beds of anhydrites in Jeribe Formation and thin beds of sand dominated lithologies in Azkand Formation. Clay content has been calculated from gamma ray log along the studied sections and appeared to be mostly of dispersed clay type as shown from density-neutron porosity crossplot of Thomas-Stieber. Correction from the effect of clay content has been done for all the measured sonic, density, and neutron porosities. The available porosity and permeability values which are measured from core tests in the well Kz-9 for the formations of Jeribe, Anah, and Azkand have been adapted to formalize the best equation for calculating permeability in the other studied wells which have no core test measurements but only log data (Kz-11, Kz-14, and Kz-16 wells). Depending on porosity, permeability, and shale content, the studied sections have been subdivided into seven reservoir units in the wells Kz-11 and Kz-16, and for eight reservoir units in the well Kz-14.     

Microstructure observations in the upper layer of the South China Sea

A general pattern for turbulent mixing in the upper layer of the South China Sea (SCS) is presented based on TurboMAP measurements in April and May 2010. The turbulence level decreased significantly overall from north to south, and weakened from east to west in the northern SCS. The average dissipation rate north of 18°N reaches 1.69 × 10^?8 W/kg, approximately six times larger than that south of 18°N. The mean mixing efficiency in the SCS is 0.2, with a maximum of 0.31 near the Luzon Strait. At one repeatedly occupied station located in the central deep basin, the dissipation rate varies diurnally in the mixed layer and pycnocline due to diurnal heating and cooling by solar radiation and local barotropic tide, respectively.     

Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS

The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change.     

Hydrologic testing during drilling: application of the flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logging method to drilling of a deep borehole

Drilling of a deep borehole does not normally allow for hydrologic testing during the drilling period. It is only done when drilling experiences a large loss (or high return) of drilling fluid due to penetration of a large-transmissivity zone. The paper proposes the possibility of conducting flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logging during the drilling period, with negligible impact on the drilling schedule, yet providing important information on depth locations of both high- and low-transmissivity zones and their hydraulic properties. The information can be used to guide downhole fluid sampling and post-drilling detailed testing of the borehole. The method has been applied to the drilling of a 2,500-m borehole at Åre, central Sweden, firstly when the drilling reached 1,600 m, and then when the drilling reached the target depth of 2,500 m. Results unveil eight hydraulically active zones from 300 m down to borehole bottom, with depths determined to within the order of a meter. Further, the first set of data allows the estimation of hydraulic transmissivity values of the six hydraulically conductive zones found from 300 to 1,600 m, which are very low and range over one order of magnitude.     

Estuarine Habitat and Demographic Factors Affect Juvenile Chinook (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>) Growth Variability in a Large Freshwater Tidal Estuary

Estuarine rearing has been shown to enhance within watershed biocomplexity and support growth and survival for juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.). However, less is known about how growth varies across different types of wetland habitats and what explains this variability in growth. We focused on the estuarine habitat use of Columbia River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), which are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) to test three hypotheses: (1) juvenile Chinook growth was best explained by temporal factors, (2) habitat, or (3) demographic characteristics, such as stock of origin. This study examined estuarine growth rate, incorporating otolith microstructure, individual assignment to stock of origin, GIS habitat mapping, and diet composition along ~130 km of the upper Columbia River estuary. Juvenile Chinook grew on average 0.23 mm/day in the freshwater tidal estuary. When compared to other studies in the basin our growth estimates from the freshwater tidal estuary were similar to estimates in the brackish estuary, but ~4 times slower than those in the plume and upstream reservoirs. However, previous survival studies elucidated a possible tradeoff between growth and survival in the Columbia River basin. Our GLM analysis found that variation in growth was best explained by habitat and an interaction between fork length and month of capture. Juvenile Chinook salmon captured in backwater channel habitats and later in the summer (mid-summer and late summer/fall subyearlings) grew faster than salmon from other habitats and time periods. These findings present a unique example of the complexity of understanding the influences of the many processes that generate variation in growth rate for juvenile anadromous fish inhabiting estuaries.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.