Ground-based SAR interferometry for monitoring mass movements

An innovative technique for the remote assessment of ground displacements, based on radar interferometry and implemented using ground-based instrumentation (GB-InSAR), has been tested in recent years on a number of selected case sites. The system, known as LISA, developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, is a ground-based radar interferometer specifically designed for field use. It is composed of two radar antennas mounted on a linear rail which horizontally slides to form a synthetic aperture. Coherent SAR processing converts the raw data into an image containing, for each pixel, information on the wave phase, which depends on the target-sensor distance. Consecutive couples of SAR images can be cross-correlated to form interferograms representing phase variations which can be directly related to ground displacement along the sight-line of the radar system, since they are acquired from exactly the same position. Several applications of the system have been conducted on a number of mass movements located in Italy, in order to validate the technique for the monitoring of landslides. GB-InSAR has proved its potential for the measurement of the superficial ground displacements of different landslide types, in terms of failure mechanism, materials involved, kinematics, water content and deformation rates. In particular conditions, such as fast-moving phenomena and inaccessible areas, the technique can be employed directly as a monitoring tool, providing multi-temporal displacement maps of the observed area. Additionally, some applications of the GB-InSAR have provided a fundamental support to decision makers during landslide emergencies, allowing the civil protection authorities to assess the risk and to manage an effective emergency response.     

Variations of UV chromospheric emissions during a pulsation period ofϱ Puppis (HD 67523)

The peculiar δ Del-variable ? Puppis (F6IIp) has been analysed on nine UV high-resolution spectra in the region of Mgii h- and k-lines. This analysis has shown: (1) The Mgii emission is present during the whole pulsation period and increases with increasing luminosity. Maximum emission fluxes seem to occur at phases 0.96–0.12. (2) The phase shift between intensity maxima of Caii and Mgii chromospheric emissions is probably about 0.26. Moreover, it seems that the phase shift between ? Pup and the Cepheid β Dor is longer for the Mgii emission (～0.44) than for the Caii one (～0.27). (3) Violet-red asymmetries are present in emission components. Moreover, the violet component K1V has always an intensity higher than the red one K1R. (4) The averaged radial velocity (RV) curve obtained from three metallic lines is in agreement with that obtained in the optical region. The RV curves of red emission and absorption components are rather similar to that of the metallic lines. Near the minimum of this RV curve, the chromospheric emissions show an intensity enhancement with a negative phase shift similar to that of light curve (～?30 deg). (5) A model with an emitting extended atmosphere around the star is proposed to explain an emission like feature in the self-reversed absorption component K3 and in K1.     

Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment

We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced.     

Seismic risk analysis with predictable models

Recent studies show that, in some seismogenetic areas, strong earthquakes occur rather predictably. Their pattern of occurrence, however, cannot be interpreted according to a classic model of seismic risk analysis. It is shown that semi-Markov models are capable of interpreting predictable behaviour and, in particular, the types suggested by the Slip Predictable Model, the Time Predictable Model and the Characteristic Earthquake Model. A number of general properties are demonstrated, dealing with return periods, waiting times, damage cost, stationary and variable characteristics of seismic risk analysis. The case of Friuli is then examined and its semi-Markovian interpretation is discussed. This interpretation is compared with others which also are possible, and the consequences for the computation of hazard and risk terms are evaluated.     

Linear and nonlinear oscillations of simple stellar models

A general property for the stability of the one zone model is derived in the case of linear nonadiabatic radial oscillations. The problem of the nonlinear adiabatic radial oscillations of the homogeneous model with a slow rotational velocity is discussed.     

The period distribution of eclipsing and spectroscopic binary systems,II

A statistical analysis of period distribution for eclipsing and spectroscopic binary systems, based on the spectral types of the components, shows several common features between the two independent samples. The similarity is increased if we eliminate the geometrical selection effect on the eclipsing binaries sample by means of the method described in previous papers. The period distribution becomes broader (and probably non-unimodal) for advanced spectral types.We also performed an analysis of the mean separation of systems as a function of the spectral type.     

Lavras do Sul: A New Equilibrated Ordinary L5 Chondrite from Rio Grande do Sul,Brazil

The new Brazilian chondrite, Lavras do Sul, was found in 1985 at Lavras do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul State-Brazil (33°30′48″S; 53°54′65″W). It consists of a single mass weighing about 1 kg, covered by a black fusion crust with grayish interior. Four polished thin sections were prepared from a slice weighing 67 g on deposit at the Museu Nacional/UFRJ. It consists mostly of chondrules and chondrule fragments dispersed in a recrystallized matrix. Most chondrules are poorly defined and range in size from 300 to 2,000 μm, although some of them show distinct outlines, particularly when viewed under cross-polarized transmitted and reflected light. The texture of chondrules varies from non-porphyritic (e.g., barred-olivine, radial-pyroxene) to porphyritic ones (e.g., granular olivine as well as olivine-pyroxene). The meteorite contains mainly olivine (Fa_24.9), low-Ca pyroxene (Fs_22.6) and metal phases, with minor amounts of plagioclase, chromite and magnetite. Mössbauer Spectroscopy studies indicate that the metal phase is kamacite, tetrataenite and antitaenite. Veins of secondary iddingsite crosscut the thin section and some ferromagnesian silicates. The chemical composition indicates that Lavras do Sul is a member of the low iron L chondrite group. The poorly delineated chondritic texture with few well-defined chondrules, the occurrence of rare clinopyroxene and plagioclase (and maskelynite) with apparent diameters ranging from 5 to 123 μm led us to classify Lavras do Sul as an equilibrated petrologic type 5. The shock features of some minerals suggest a shock stage S3, and the presence of a small amount of secondary minerals such as iddingsite and goethite, a degree of weathering W₁. The meteorite name was approved by the Nomenclature Committee (Nom Com) of the Meteoritical Society (Meteoritic Bulletin Nº99).     

A time-dependent extension of the projected normal regression model for longitudinal circular data based on a hidden Markov heterogeneity structure

The modelling of animal movement is an important ecological and environmental issue. It is well-known that animals change their movement patterns over time, according to observable and unobservable factors. To trace the dynamics of behaviors, to identify factors influencing these dynamics and unobserved characteristics driving intra-subjects correlations, we introduce a time-dependent mixed effects projected normal regression model. A set of animal-specific parameters following a hidden Markov chain is introduced to deal with unobserved heterogeneity. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, we outline an expectation–maximization algorithm. A large-scale simulation study provides evidence on model behavior. The data analysis approach based on the proposed model is finally illustrated by an application to a dataset, which derives from a population of Talitrus saltator from the beach of Castiglione della Pescaia (Italy).     

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean–atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001–2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere–ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.