Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Palaeoproterozoic evaporites in Fennoscandia: implications for seawater sulphate, the rise of atmospheric oxygen and local amplification of the δ13C excursion

This paper addresses global oxygenation and establishment of a marine sulphate reservoir in the Palaeoproterozoic. We report syn-depositional, marine, anhydrite-containing pseudomorphs after Ca-sulphates as widespread throughout the Tulomozero Formation in the SE Fennoscandian Shield, implying that surface waters were oxidized and a large SO marine reservoir was developed as early as 2100 Ma. The Ca-sulphates and associated magnesite and halite precipitated syn-depositionally from oxidized, evolved and modified seawater in coastal playa, sabkha and intertidal flat settings. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ¹³C of associated ¹³C-rich stromatolitic dolostones were environmentally controlled with the highest ratios occurring in playa and sabkha carbonates. The results imply that the Palaeoproterozoic δ¹³C_carb excursion was amplified by 8‰ by local environmental factors and calls into question many observations of putative δ¹³C global signals reported previously from similar Palaeoproterozoic, evaporitic, dolostones. The local environmental amplification can explain a large regional and intercontinental δ¹³C discrepancy observed in synchronous carbonates.     

The lacustrine microbial carbonate factory of the successive Lake Bonneville and Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA

The Bonneville Basin is a continental lacustrine system accommodating extensive microbial carbonate deposits corresponding to two distinct phases: the deep Lake Bonneville (30 000 to 11 500 ¹⁴C bp ) and the shallow Great Salt Lake (since 11 500 ¹⁴C bp ). A characterization of these microbial deposits and their associated sediments provides insights into their spatio‐temporal distribution patterns. The Bonneville phase preferentially displays vertical distribution of the microbial deposits resulting from high‐amplitude lake level variations. Due to the basin physiography, the microbial deposits were restricted to a narrow shoreline belt following Bonneville lake level variations. Carbonate production was more efficient during intervals of relative lake level stability as recorded by the formation of successive terraces. In contrast, the Great Salt Lake microbial deposits showed a great lateral distribution, linked to the modern flat bottom configuration. A low vertical distribution of the microbial deposits was the result of the shallow water depth combined with a low amplitude of lake level fluctuations. These younger microbial deposits display a higher diversity of fabrics and sizes. They are distributed along an extensive ‘shore to lake’ transect on a flat platform in relation to local and progressive accommodation space changes. Microbial deposits are temporally discontinuous throughout the lake history showing longer hiatuses during the Bonneville phase. The main parameters controlling the rate of carbonate production are related to the interaction between physical (kinetics of the mineral precipitation, lake water temperature and runoff), chemical (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and HCO₃^? concentrations, Mg/Ca ratio, dilution and depletion) and/or biological (trophic) factors. The contrast in evolution of Lake Bonneville and Great Salt Lake microbial deposits during their lacustrine history leads to discussions on major chemical and climatic changes during this interval as well as the role of physiography. Furthermore, it provides novel insights into the composition, structure and formation of microbialite‐rich carbonate deposits under freshwater and hypersaline conditions.     

Field investigation of deformation characteristics and stress mobilisation of a soil slope

Stress mobilisation and deformation of a slope are important for engineers to carry out reliable design of retaining systems. However, most case histories reported mainly on the response of pore water pressure (PWP), whereas knowledge about the stress deformation characteristics of slope is limited. In this study, a saprolitic soil slope was instrumented to monitor not only the responses of PWP but also horizontal stress and horizontal displacement. To assist in the interpretation of field data, a series of laboratory tests was conducted to characterise volume change behaviour of the soil taken from the site, under the effects of both net stress and suction. During a rainstorm event when positive PWP built up, a remarkably large displacement of 20 mm was recorded between 5.5- and 6-m depths, and the top 5 m of the slope exhibited translational downslope movement. This caused an increase in Bishop’s effective horizontal stress by 350 %, which reached a peak value close to 40 % of a Bishop’s effective passive stress. During the subsequent dry season when suction was recovered, an upslope rebound of 10 mm was recorded. Comparison of field and laboratory data reveals that the rebound was attributed to suction-induced soil shrinkage. This rebound led to a decrease in the Bishop’s effective horizontal stress previously built up during the storm event.     

Industrial decentralisation in South Africa: tool of Apartheid or spontaneous restructuring?

Industrial decentralisation (ID) has been a central component of South Africa's regional strategy for over twenty years. Until recently, though, the programme has evinced little interest amongst industrialists. The fact that ID policy has been premised upon political rather than economic considerations has been thought to lie at the root of this failure. Following recent developments, however, this view is being reassessed. The reorganisation of ID policy in 1982 and the dramatic acceleration in the rate of industrial relocations that this reorganisation appears to have induced, has led theorists to revise their thinking on both the economic and political imperatives underpinning the programme. The purpose of this paper is to review the debates that are now developing concerning ID in South Africa, and to suggest where further research and analysis might be most profitably directed.     

Surficial geophysical deduction of the geomaterial and aquifer distributions at Ngor-Okpala local government area of Imo State, South Eastern Nigeria

Twenty seven vertical electrical sounding (VES) profiles surrounding four known traverses were obtained in Ngor-Okpala local government area of Imo state to examine the subsurface geomaterials and the associated groundwater potential. The VES data, constrained by borehole data, provided useful information about the subsurface hydrogeologic and lithologic conditions. From the validated interpretation, the area assessed has loamy soil, medium grained sands, well-sorted medium-grained/gravelly sands and river sand as the lithologic succession from top to the bottom of the depth penetrated. The aquifers in the area were found in the medium-grained sands and well-sorted medium-coarse-grained sands. The aquifer depth for all-season groundwater that would be devoid of draw-down can be found at a depth range of 42–50 m. The resistivity maps of selected depths exhibit sharp resistivity changes at depth due mainly to undulating subsurface topography. A map of the distribution of the kσ-values shows that good quality groundwater can be found in most parts of the area.     

Elemental and mineralogical changes in soils due to bioturbation along an earthworm invasion chronosequence in Northern Minnesota

Minnesota forested soils have evolved without the presence of earthworms since the last glacial retreat. When exotic earthworms arrive, enhanced soil bioturbation often results in dramatic morphological and chemical changes in soils with negative implications for the forests’ sustainability. However, the impacts of earthworm invasion on geochemical processes in soils are not well understood. This study attempts to quantify the role of earthworm invasion in mineral chemical weathering and nutrient dynamics along an earthworm invasion chronosequence in a sugar maple forest in Northern Minnesota. Depth and rates of soil mixing can be tracked with atmospherically derived short lived radioisotopes ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. Their radioactivities increase in the lower A horizon at the expense of the peak activities near the soil surface, which indicate that soil mixing rate and its depth reach have been enhanced by earthworms. Enhanced soil mixing by earthworms is consistent with the ways that the vertical profiles of elemental and mineralogical compositions were affected by earthworm invasion. Biologically cycled Ca and P have peak concentrations near the soil surface prior to earthworm invasion. However, these peak abundances significantly declined in the earthworm invaded soils presumably due to enhanced soil mixing. It is clear that enhanced soil mixing due to earthworms also profoundly altered the vertical distribution of most mineral species within A horizons. Though the mechanisms are not clear yet, earthworm invasion appears to have contributed to net losses of clay mineral species and opal from the A horizons. As much as earthworms vertically relocated minerals and elements, they also intensify the contacts between organic matter and cations as shown in the increased amount of Ca and Fe in organically complexed and in exchangeable pools. With future studies on soil mixing rates and elemental leaching, this study will quantitatively and mechanically address the role of earthworms in geochemical evolution of soils and forests’ nutrient dynamics.     

Multi-stage evolution of a sub-aerial volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr: S. Jorge Island, Azores Triple Junction

New K/Ar dating and geochemical analyses have been carried out on the WNW–ESE elongated oceanic island of S. Jorge to reconstruct the volcanic evolution of a linear ridge developed close to the Azores triple junction. We show that S. Jorge sub-aerial construction encompasses the last 1.3 Myr, a time interval far much longer than previously reported. The early development of the ridge involved a sub-aerial building phase exposed in the southeast end of the island and now constrained between 1.32 ± 0.02 and 1.21 ± 0.02 Ma. Basic lavas from this older stage are alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements, reflecting partial melting of an enriched mantle source. At least three differentiation cycles from alkaline basalts to mugearites are documented within this stage. The successive episodes of magma rising, storage and evolution suggest an intermittent re-opening of the magma feeding system, possibly due to recurrent tensional or trans-tensional tectonic events. Present data show a gap in sub-aerial volcanism before a second main ongoing building phase starting at about 750 ka. Sub-aerial construction of the S. Jorge ridge migrated progressively towards the west, but involved several overlapping volcanic episodes constrained along the main WNW–ESE structural axis of the island. Mafic magmas erupted during the second phase have been also generated by partial melting of an enriched mantle source. Trace element data suggest, however, variable and lower degrees of partial melting of a shallower mantle domain, which is interpreted as an increasing control of lithospheric deformation on the genesis and extraction of primitive melts during the last 750 kyr. The multi-stage development of the S. Jorge volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr has most likely been greatly influenced by regional tectonics, controlled by deformation along the diffuse boundary between the Nubian and the Eurasian plates, and the increasing effect of sea-floor spreading at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Overview of In - Situ Biodegradation and Enhancement

Microbial degradation technologies have been developed to restore ground water quality in aquifers polluted by organic contaminants effectively in recent years. However, in course of the degradation, the formation of biofilms in ground water remediation technology can be detrimental to the effectiveness of a ground water remediation project. Several alternatives are available to a remedial design engineer, such as Permeable Reactive Barriers (PRBs) and in -situ bioremediation, Hydrogen Releasing Compounds (HRCs) barrier, Oxygen Releasing Compounds (ORCs) barrier etc. which are efficient and cost- effective technologies. Excessive biomass formation renders a barrier ineffective in degrading the contaminants, Efforts are made to develop kinetics models which accurately determine bio - fouling and bio - filn formation and to control excessive biomass formation.