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131.
Abstract A computational method is developed where salinities inferred from mean salinity profiles (computed from all available data) are used to calculate 0/500 db dynamic height from temperature profiles. Using data from Ocean Weather Station P (50°N, 145°W), the method yielded a much smaller uncertainty in inferred 0/500 db dynamic height (~3 dyn cm) than that found using a mean temperature‐salinity relationship (~10 dyn cm). Applied to historical hydrographic data averaged over 5° squares in the North Pacific (north of 30°N), the method led to inferred dynamic‐height uncertainties typically less than 4 dyn cm in the region north of the Subarctic Front (~40°N). In this same region, dynamic heights inferred from mean temperature‐salinity curves had large uncertainties. South of the Subarctic Front, the dynamic‐height uncertainties associated with the temperature‐salinity curves were smaller than those computed with the mean salinity profiles. A combination of these two methods was used to compute inferred dynamic height from a climatology of temperature structure in the region from 30–50°N, 130°W‐150°E. 相似文献
132.
Hyun-Chul Lee Thomas L. Delworth Anthony Rosati Rong Zhang Whit G. Anderson Fanrong Zeng Charles A. Stock Anand Gnanadesikan Keith W. Dixon Stephen M. Griffies 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):327-340
The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf. 相似文献
133.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
134.
It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems. 相似文献
135.
N. Brice Orange Hakeem M. Oluseyi David L. Chesny Maulik Patel Patrick Champey Katie Hesterly Dylan Anthony Robert Treen 《Solar physics》2014,289(5):1901-1915
Achieving subarcsecond co-registration across varying time-lines of multi-wavelength and instrument images is difficult and requires an accurate characterization of the instrument pointing jitter. We investigated the internal pointing errors on daily and yearly time-scales that occur across the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI). Using cross-correlation techniques on the AIA 1700 Å passband and the HMI line-of-sight magnetograms from three years of observational image pairs at approximately three-day intervals, internal pointing errors were quantified. Pointing variations of ±?0.26″ (jitter-limited) and ±?0.50″ in the solar East–West (x) and North–South (y) directions, respectively, were measured. AIA observations of the Venus transit in June 2012 were used to measure existing coalignment offsets in all passbands. We found that the AIA passband pointing variations are 〈ΔX CO〉=1.10″±1.41″ and 〈ΔY CO〉=1.25″±1.24″ when aligned to the HMI nominal image center, referred to here as the CutOut technique. Minimal long-term pointing variations found between limb and correlation derived pointings provide evidence that the image-center positions provided by the instrument teams achieve single-pixel accuracy on time scales shorter than their characterization. However, daily AIA passband pointing variations of ??1.18″ indicate that autonomous subarcsecond co-registration is not fully achieved yet. 相似文献
136.
Ian Shennan Sarah Hamilton Caroline Hillier Amanda Hunter Ruth Woodall Sarah Bradley Glenn Milne Anthony Brooks Sophie Bassett 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(6):601-613
Observations of relative sea‐level change and local deglaciation in western Scotland provide critical constraints for modelling glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain over the last 18 000 years. The longest records come from Skye, Arisaig and Knapdale with a shorter, Holocene, record from Kintail. Biostratigraphic (diatom, pollen, dinoflagellate, foraminifera and thecamoebian), lithological and radiocarbon analyses provide age and elevation parameters for each sea‐level index point. All four sites reveal relative sea‐level change that is highly non‐monotonic in time as the local vertical component of glacio‐isostatic rebound and eustasy (or global meltwater influx) dominate at different periods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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140.
Gudrún Larsen Anthony J. Newton Andrew J. Dugmore Elsa G. Vilmundardttir 《第四纪科学杂志》2001,16(2):119-132
At least 12 silicic tephra layers (SILK tephras) erupted between ca. 6600 and ca. 1675 yr BP from the Katla volcanic system, have been identified in southern Iceland. In addition to providing significant new knowledge on the Holocene volcanism of the Katla system which typically produces basaltic tephra, the SILK tephras form distinct and precise isochronous marker horizons in a climatically sensitive location close to both the atmospheric and marine polar fronts. With one exception the SILK tephras have a narrow compositional range, with SiO2 between 63 and 67%. Geochemically they are indistinguishable from ocean transported pumice found on beaches in the North Atlantic region, although they differ significantly from the silicic component of the North Atlantic Ash Zone One (NAAZO). Volumes of airborne SILK tephra range from 0.05 to 0.3 km3. We present new isopach maps of the six largest layers and demonstrate that they originate within the Katla caldera. The apparently stable magma system conditions that produced the SILK tephras may have been established as a consequence of the eruption of the silicic component of NAAZO (ca. 10.3 ka) and disrupted by another large‐scale event, the tenth century ad Eldgjá eruption (ca. 1 ka). Despite the current long repose, silicic activity of this type may occur again in the future, presenting hitherto unknown hazards. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献