Mapping transit‐based access: integrating GIS,routes and schedules

Seabed sediment textural parameters such as mud, sand and gravel content can be useful surrogates for predicting patterns of benthic biodiversity. Multibeam sonar mapping can provide near-complete spatial coverage of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter data that are useful in predicting sediment parameters. Multibeam acoustic data collected across a ～1000 km² area of the Carnarvon Shelf, Western Australia, were used in a predictive modelling approach to map eight seabed sediment parameters. Four machine learning models were used for the predictive modelling: boosted decision tree, random forest decision tree, support vector machine and generalised regression neural network. The results indicate overall satisfactory statistical performance, especially for %Mud, %Sand, Sorting, Skewness and Mean Grain Size. The study also demonstrates that predictive modelling using the combination of machine learning models has provided the ability to generate prediction uncertainty maps. However, the single models were shown to have overall better prediction performance than the combined models. Another important finding was that choosing an appropriate set of explanatory variables, through a manual feature selection process, was a critical step for optimising model performance. In addition, machine learning models were able to identify important explanatory variables, which are useful in identifying underlying environmental processes and checking predictions against the existing knowledge of the study area. The sediment prediction maps obtained in this study provide reliable coverage of key physical variables that will be incorporated into the analysis of covariance of physical and biological data for this area.     

Predicting sediment inputs to aquatic ecosystems across England and Wales under current environmental conditions

The awareness of water quality issues has never been higher. As part of its continuing strategic diffuse pollution policy support, ADAS recently undertook to identify catchments across England and Wales that could potentially fail recently proposed suspended sediment yield targets under current environmental conditions. The total suspended sediment loads (SSL) delivered to all rivers were assumed to comprise contributions from diffuse sources in the agricultural and urban sectors, as well as from eroding channel banks and point sources represented by sewage treatment works (STWs). Diffuse agricultural sediment loss to rivers was predicted using the PSYCHIC model. Corresponding inputs from diffuse urban sources were estimated on the basis of an Event Mean Concentration (EMC) methodology. Channel bank sediment inputs were calculated using a prototype national scale model, while point source sediment contributions were based on a register of consented effluent discharges. Modelled SSL were validated (r²=68%) against PARCOM data (1999–2003) for the delivery of sediment to different regions of the UK maritime area. The results of the validation were considered to be realistic for a national scale predictor. The modelling exercise suggested that those catchments currently at risk of exceeding proposed suspended sediment yield critical thresholds are largely confined to upland areas across Wales and northwest England and the chalklands of southern and eastern England.     

Controlling factors of gullying in the Maracujá Catchment,southeastern Brazil

Hundreds of gullies (‘voçorocas’) of huge dimensions (up to 400–500 m long, 150 m wide and 50 m deep) are very common in the small Maracujá Catchment in southeastern Brazil. These erosional features, which occur with an uneven intensity throughout the area, started due to bad soil management practices at the beginning of European settlement, at the end of the 17th century, and nowadays are still evolving, but at a slower rate. As surface soils are usually very resistant to erosion, the outcrop of the more erodible basement saprolites seems to be an essential condition for their beginning. An analysis of well known erosion controlling factors was performed, aiming to explain the beginning and evolution of these gullies and to understand the reasons for their spatial distribution. Data shows that geology and, mainly, geomorphology are the main controlling factors, since gullies tend to be concentrated in basement rock areas with lower relief (domain 2) of Maracujá Catchment, mainly at the fringes of broad and flat interfluves. At the detailed scale (1:10 000), gullies are more common in amphitheatre‐like headwater hollows that frequently represent upper Quaternary gullies (paleogullies), which demonstrate the recurrence of channel erosion. So, gullies occur in areas of thicker saprolites (domain 2), in places with a natural concentration of surface and underground water (hollows). Saprolites of the preserved, non‐eroded hollows are usually pressurized (confined aquifer) due to a thick seal of Quaternary clay layer, in a similar configuration to the ones found in hollows of mass movement (mudflow) sites in southeastern Brazil. Therefore, the erosion of the resistant soils by human activities, such as road cuts and trenches (‘valos’), or their mobilization by mudflow movements, seem to be likely mechanisms of gullying initiation. Afterwards, gullies evolve by a combination of surface and underground processes, such as wash and tunnel erosion and falls and slumps of gully walls. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m⁻². This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.     

Nonstationary dynamic control of seismic activity of platform regions by mid-ocean ridges

The plot of temporal variation in the seismic activity level in the central and eastern North American platform (NAP) is shown to be similar to that for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). This fact was previously noted for Fennoscandia [Skordas et al., 1991]. The characteristic features of the MAR plot recur approximately every three years for Fennoscandia and every four to eight years for the NAP. These data indicate that the mid-ocean ridge largely controls the seismic activity of the adjacent platforms. The control is provided by the ridge push force. As a result of variations in this force due to the nonstationary process of dike intrusion in the axial zone of the ridge, disturbances of the stationary stress-strain state of the lithosphere migrate from the ridge. Using the Elsasser model, the observed time shift can be used for estimating the viscosity of the asthenosphere, amounting to 10¹⁷ Pa s with an accuracy of ±30% in the case considered. The disturbance amplitudes decaying away from the ridge are high enough to change the seismic activity of the adjacent platforms.     

Statistical modeling of relative variations in the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F region

Relative variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F, region are considered as one of the main sources of information about the characteristics of plasma inhomogeneities in the region of the main ionization maximum and as a substantial factor responsible for the statistics of the decameter signal parameters on radio paths with different lengths. The functions defined on finite intervals are also used in statistical modeling in addition to the available methods. Such a consideration made it possible to remove a restriction, peculiar to previous models, in the form of the requirement that the fourth statistical invariant—excess— should be positive. This makes the generalized statistical model more universal, which is of special importance for high4atitude radio paths. The specified mo del more adequately corresponds to the experimental data, which are characterized by finite intervals where the quantities are measured.