Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.     

The REVEALS model,a new tool to estimate past regional plant abundance from pollen data in large lakes: validation in southern Sweden

The REVEALS model was developed to reconstruct quantitatively regional vegetation abundance (in a 10⁴–10⁵ km² area) from pollen assemblages in large lakes (≥100–500 ha). This model corrects for biases in pollen percentages caused by inter‐taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal. This paper presents the first case study to validate REVEALS, using empirical data from southern Sweden. Percentage cover of modern regional vegetation in Skåne and Småland, two contrasting vegetation regions, was predicted with REVEALS for 26 key taxa, using pollen assemblages from surface sediments in 10 large lakes, and compared to the actual vegetation within 10⁴ km² compiled from satellite data, forestry inventories, crop statistics, aerial photographs, and vegetation inventories. REVEALS works well in predicting the percentage cover of large vegetation units such as total trees (wooded land), total herbs (open land), total conifers and total broad‐leaved trees, and it provides reasonable estimates for individual taxa, including Pinus, Picea, Betula, Corylus, Alnus, Tilia, Salix spp., Juniperus, Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Cerealia and Secale. The results show great potential for REVEALS applications, including (1) quantitative reconstructions of past regional land cover important for palaeoclimatology and nature conservation, and (2) local‐scale reconstruction of vegetation (<1 km² up to ～ 5 km² area) relevant for palaeoecology and archaeology. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neoproterozoic basin evolution in Fennoscandia, East Greenland and Svalbard

Neoproterozoic successions of Fennoscandia, East Greenland and Svalbard are related to crustal extension and formation of sedimentary basins along the margins of northern Baltica （ Fennoscandia ） and eastern Laurentia （East Greenland and Svalbard）, preceding final break-up of Rodinia. The early rift stage （late Tonian-Cryogenian） is characterized by up to 16 km thick sedimentary successions of deep-marine sandstones and conglomerates linked to rift and strike-slip basins. Pericratonic basins expanded during Cryogenian-Cambrian coastal onlap. Cryogenian tropical climate is reflected by carbonate and evaporitic formations, most of which predate Cryogenian-Ediacaran glaciations. Glacial units, collectively referred to the Varanger Ice Age, may be equivalent to the Marinoan （c. 630 Ma） and the Gaskiers （c. 580 Ma） glacial periods. The final stage in break-up of Rodinia commenced with the emplacement of dolerite dyke swarms along the Baltoscandian margin at c. 600 Ma and the opening of the lapetus Ocean and other sea ways. No such dyke swarms have been recorded along the East Greenland segment of the Laurentian margin. Several Tonian-Cambrian tectonic and magmatic events recorded within the Kalak Nappe Complex in northern Finnmark make this unit an exotic terrane relative to the autochthonous Baltoscandian platform.     

Optimal energy‐based seismic design of non‐conventional Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) implemented via inter‐story isolation

Inter‐story isolation, an effective strategy for mitigating the seismic risk of both new and existing buildings, has gained more and more interest in recent years as alternative to base isolation, whenever the latter results to be impractical, technically difficult or uneconomic. As suggested by the name, the technique consists in inserting flexible isolators at floor levels other than the base along the height of a multi‐story building, thus realizing a non‐conventional Tuned Mass Damper (TMD). Consistent with this, an optimal design methodology is developed in the present paper with the objective of achieving the global protection of both the structural portions separated by the inter‐story isolation system, that is, the lower portion (below the isolation system) and the isolated upper portion (above the isolation system). The optimization procedure is formulated on the basis of an energy performance criterion that consists in maximizing the ratio between the energy dissipated in the isolation system and the input energy globally transferred to the entire structure. Numerical simulations, performed under natural accelerograms with different frequency content and considering increasing isolation levels along the height of a reference frame structure, are used to investigate the seismic performance of the optimized inter‐story isolation systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Origin, enzymatic response and fate of dissolved organic matter during flood and non-flood conditions in a river-floodplain system of the Danube (Austria)

Spectroscopic techniques and extracellular enzyme activity measurements were combined with assessments of bacterial secondary production (BSP) to elucidate flood-pulse-linked differences in carbon (C) sources and related microbial processes in a river-floodplain system near Vienna (Austria). Surface connection with the main channel significantly influenced the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in floodplain backwaters. The highest values of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) were observed during the peak of the flood, when DOC increased from 1.36 to 4.37 mg l^?1 and CDOM from 2.94 to 14.32 m^?1. The flood introduced DOC which consisted of more allochthonously-derived, aromatic compounds. Bacterial enzymatic activity, as a proxy to track the response to changes in DOM, indicated elevated utilization of imported allochthonous material. Based on the enzyme measurements, new parameters were calculated: metabolic effort and enzymatic indices (EEA 1 and EEA 2). During connection, bacterial glucosidase and protease activity were dominant, whereas during disconnected phases a switch to lignin degradation (phenol oxidase) occurred. The enzymatic activity analysis revealed that flooding mobilized reactive DOM, which then supported bacterial metabolism. No significant differences in overall BSP between the two phases were detected, indicating that heterogeneous sources of C sufficiently support BSP. The study demonstrates that floods are important for delivering DOM, which, despite its allochthonous origin, is reactive and can be effectively utilized by aquatic bacteria in this river-floodplain systems. The presence of active floodplains, characterized by hydrological connectivity with the main channel, creates the opportunity to process allochthonous DOC. This has potential consequences for carbon flux, enhancing C sequestration and mineralization processes in this river-floodplain system.     

Structural damage in the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the earthquake on May 2012 in Emilia Romagna

This paper addresses the structural damage to the main buildings of the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the primary earthquake shocks on May 20th and 29th, 2012, in Emilia Romagna. The damage survey, performed via form-based methods, highlights the different seismic behaviour of several types of buildings, especially those having historical features, and the consequences of the damage in terms of costs. Moreover, an analysis of some failure mechanisms activated in Reggiolo enables the evaluation of the local peak ground acceleration, due to the soil amplification.     

Studies of aerosol optical depth with the use of Microtops II sun photometers and MODIS detectors in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea

In this paper we describe the results of a research campaign dedicated to the studies of aerosol optical properties in different regions of both the open Baltic Sea and its coastal areas. During the campaign we carried out simultaneous measurements of aerosol optical depth at 4 stations with the use of the hand-held Microtops II sun photometers. The studies were complemented with aerosol data provided by the MODIS. In order to obtain the full picture of aerosol situation over the study area, we added to our analyses the air mass back-trajectories at various altitudes as well as wind fields. Such complex information facilitated proper conclusions regarding aerosol optical depth and Ångström exponent for the four locations and discussion of the changes of aerosol properties with distance and with changes of meteorological factors. We also show that the Microtops II sun photometers are reliable instruments for field campaigns. They are easy to operate and provide good quality results.     

Optical properties of long-range transported volcanic ash over Romania and Poland during Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010

After Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption on 14 April 2010, due to a complex air mass circulation, Romania was exposed to volcanic ash and its mixture with continental aerosols. Ash particles with an average Ångström (UV-VIS) exponent of 1.4 ± 0.2 and (VIS-IR) of 1.2 ± 0.3, a color ratio (VIS-UV) of 0.54 and (IR-VIS) of 0.49, an average particle depolarization value ～9.4%, and a lidar ratio of 50 sr were retrieved on 18 April from multiwavelength Raman lidar measurements in Bucharest. Mixed volcanic ash with mineral dust particles advected from Sahara, depolarization ～12%, Ångström (UV-VIS) exponent of 1.25 ± 0.25 and (VIS-IR) of 1.45 ± 0.25, an increased color ratio (VIS-UV) of 0.61, (IRVIS) of 0.39 and lidar ratio of 53 sr were identified on 28 April. From observations in Poland conducted by an elastic lidar at 532 nm and a ceilometer at 1064 nm we retrieved an average backscatter related Ångström (VIS-IR) exponent of 1.25 ± 0.35, and a color ratio (IR-VIS) of 0.53 in the layer at about 5.5 km during the night of 16/17 April, indicating fresh ash over Warsaw.     

Estimating thermal conductivity from core and well log data

The aim of the presented work was to introduce a method of estimating thermal conductivity using well log data. Many petrophysical properties of rocks can be determined both by laboratory measurements and well-logs. It is thus possible to apply geophysical data to empirical models based on relationships between laboratory measured parameters and derive continuous thermal conductivity values in well profiles. Laboratory measurements were conducted on 62 core samples of Meso-Paleozoic rocks from the Carpathian Foredeep. Mathematical models were derived using multiple regression and neural network methods. Geophysical data from a set of seven well logs: density, sonic, neutron, gamma ray, spectral gamma ray, caliper and resistivity were applied to the obtained models. Continuous thermal conductivity values were derived in three well profiles. Analysis of the obtained results shows good consistence between laboratory data and values predicted from well log data.