Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

CANADIAN ARCTIC METEORITE SEARCH: 1981

The recovery of several thousand meteorite fragments from Antarctica has led to speculation that accumulations may occur on the Earth's other major ice caps. Meteorites falling over the past 80,000 years on the Devon Island ice cap in the Canadian Arctic may be exposed at the surface near the ice cap margin. From the terrestrial meteorite flux, ice movement rates, and fragmentation factors it is calculated that 12,560 samples of 150 g mass are potentially concentrated in a 65 km² zone along the northwest margin. A search of this region on foot and by helicopter in July, 1981, failed to recover any specimens. Although metre-sized gneissic boulders, plucked from the underlying Precambrian basement, were concentrated in this zone it is postulated that the unseasonal 30 cm snow cover on the ice prohibited the recognition of possible meteorite specimens, which may average only 5 cm in diameter.     

Vertical Structure in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer and its Implication for the Inertial Dissipation Method

The structure of the marine atmospheric boundarylayer and the validity ofMonin–Obukhov similarity theory over the seahave been investigated using longterm measurements. Three levels of turbulencemeasurements (at 10 m, 18 mand 26 m) at Östergarnsholm in themiddle of the Baltic Sea have beenanalysed. The results show that turbulentparameters have a strong dependenceon the actual height due to wave influence.The wind profile and thus thenormalised wind gradient are very sensitiveto wave state. The lower part of theboundary layer can be divided into three heightlayers, a wave influenced layerclose to the surface, a transition layer andan undisturbed ordinary surfacelayer; the depth of the layers is determinedby the wave state. This heightstructure can, however, not be found for thenormalised dissipation, which is onlya function of the stability, except duringpronounced swell where the actualheight also has to be accounted for. Theresults have implications for the heightvariation of the turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget. Thus, the imbalancebetween production and dissipation willalso vary with height according to thevariation of wave state. This, in turn,will of course have strong implicationsfor the inertial dissipation method, inwhich a parameterisation of the TKEbudget is used.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

The clean development mechanism’s contribution to sustainable development: a review of the literature

The challenges of how to respond to climate change and ensure sustainable development are currently high on the political agenda among the world’s leading nations. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is part of the global carbon market developing rapidly as part of the Kyoto response towards the mitigation of global warming. One of the aims of the CDM is to achieve sustainable development in developing countries, but uncertainty prevails as to whether the CDM is doing what it promises to do. Close to 200 studies on the CDM have been carried out since its birth in 1997 including peer-reviewed articles and reports from the grey literature. This review of the literature serves to assess the state of knowledge on how the CDM contributes to sustainable development (SD) including poverty alleviation. The main finding of the review is that, left to market forces, the CDM does not significantly contribute to sustainable development.     

HST colour–magnitude diagrams of six old globular clusters in the LMC

We report on HST observations of six candidate old globular clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC): NGC 1754, 1835, 1898, 1916, 2005 and 2019. Deep exposures with the F555W and F814W filters provide us with colour–magnitude diagrams that reach to an apparent magnitude in V of ∼25, well below the main-sequence turn-off. These particular clusters are associated with significantly high LMC field star densities and care was taken to subtract the field stars from the cluster colour–magnitude diagrams accurately. In two cases there is significant variable reddening across at least part of the image, but only for NGC 1916 does the differential reddening preclude accurate measurements of the CMD characteristics. The morphologies of the colour–magnitude diagrams match well those of Galactic globular clusters of similar metallicity. All six have well-developed horizontal branches, while four clearly have stars on both sides of the RR Lyrae gap. The abundances obtained from measurements of the height of the red giant branch above the level of the horizontal branch are 0.3 dex higher, on average, than previously measured spectroscopic abundances. Detailed comparisons with Galactic globular cluster fiducials show that all six clusters are old objects, very similar in age to classical Galactic globulars such as M5, with little age spread among the clusters. This result is consistent with ages derived by measuring the magnitude difference between the horizontal branch and main-sequence turn-off. We also find a similar chronology by comparing the horizontal branch morphologies and abundances with the horizontal branch evolutionary tracks of Lee, Demarque &38; Zinn. Our results imply that the LMC formed at the same time as the Milky Way Galaxy.     

MELIMEX,an experimental heavy metal pollution study: Particle size distributions in limno-corrals

The particle size distributions in three limno-corrals, located in Baldeggersee, Switzerland, have been determined by means of a Zeiss Micro-Videomat image analyzer as a function of depth and time. The distributions were measured biweekly over a period of 1 year at depths of 0 m, 2.5 m, 5 m, 7.5 m and 10 m (=above bottom). Two of the limno-corrals were charged with heavy metals, whereas the third was uncharged and served as a reference. The shape of the distributions as well as the particle concentrations in the uncharged container did not differ from the ones in the charged limno-corrals. The distributions were found to be self-preserving and independent on heavy metal load, time, depth and particle concentrations. As an average, the dependence of the distributions on the particle diameter was found to be ?1.5 to ?2.5.     

A comment on the effect of discretization on dispersion

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Plutonium,radiocesium and radiocobalt in sediments of the Hudson River estuary

Anthropogenic radionuclides have reached the Hudson estuary as global fallout from nuclear weapons testing and through local releases from commercial nuclear reactors. Significant activities of²³⁸Pu and^239,240Pu (fallout-derived),¹³⁴Cs and⁶⁰Co (reactor-released), and¹³⁷Cs (derived from both sources), have accumulated in the sediments throughout the estuary, with the primary zone of accumulation near the downstream end of the system in New York harbor. The estuary appears to have trapped nearly all of the^239,240Pu delivered as fallout, and consequently, ocean dumping of dredged harbor sediment is currently the primary means for the net transport of these nuclides to coastal waters. In contrast, only 10–30% of the¹³⁷Cs,¹³⁴Cs and⁶⁰Co delivered to the estuary have been retained on the fine particles which accumulate at a rapid rate in the harbor.The primary factors which have governed the distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in Hudson sediments are: (1) spread of fine particles labeled with both fallout and reactor nuclides throughout the axis of the estuary, (2) differences in timing of the peak fallout years (1962–1964) and years of maximum reactor releases (1971–1972), (3) large variations in sediment accumulation rates, ranging from a few millimeters per year or less to many tens of centimeters per year, (4) appreciable desorption of¹³⁷Cs and¹³⁴Cs from particles at higher salinities, and (5) possible enhanced desorption of⁶⁰Co at higher salinities (relative to¹³⁴Cs and¹³⁷Cs) which may be associated with the release of reduced manganese from the harbor sediments.