On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variation of b value associated with M ��4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna�CWarna region, Western India

It is generally found that the b values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are higher than the regional b values in the frequency magnitude relation of earthquakes. In the present study, temporal and spatial variation of b value is investigated using a catalog of 3,000 earthquakes from August 2005 through December 2010 for the Koyna?CWarna region in Western India, which is a classical site of RTS globally. It is an isolated (30?×?20?km²) zone of seismicity where earthquakes of up to M ??5 are found to occur during phases of loading and unloading of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs situated 25?km apart. For the Warna region, it is found that low b values of 0.6?C0.9 are associated with earthquakes of M ??4 during the loading phase. The percentage correlation of the occurrence of an M????4 earthquake with a low b value outside the 1?? or 2?? level is as high as 78?%. A drastic drop in the b value of about 50?% being reported for an RTS site may be an important precursory parameter for short-term earthquake forecast in the future.     

On Simulation and Analysis of Variable‐Rate Pumping Tests

Analytical solutions for constant‐rate pumping tests are widely used to infer aquifer properties. In this note, we implement a methodology that approximates the time‐varying pumping record as a series of segments with linearly varying pumping rates. We validate our approach using an analytical solution for a sinusoidally varying pumping test. We also apply our methodology to analyze synthetic test data and compare the results with those from a commonly used method where rate variations are represented by a series of constant‐rate steps.     

Effect of rare disaster risks on crude oil: evidence from El Niño from over 145 years of data

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - We extend the literature on the effect of rare disaster risks on commodities by examining the effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on crude...     

Rock physics template (RPT) analysis of well logs and seismic data for lithology and fluid classification in Cambay Basin

The Cambay Basin is 450-km-long north–south-trending graben with an average width of 50 km, having maximum depth of about 7 km. The origin of the Cambay and other Basins on the western margin of India are related to the break up of the Gondwana super-continent in the Late-Triassic to Early-Jurassic (215 ma). The structural disposition of the Pre-Cambrian basement—a complex of igneous and metamorphic rocks exposed in the vicinity of the Cambay Basin—controls its architecture. The principal lineaments in the Basin are aligned towards NE-SE, ENE-WSW and NNW-SSE, respectively. Rock physics templates (RPTs) are charts and graphs generated by using rock physics models, constrained by local geology, that serve as tools for lithology and fluid differentiation. RPT can act as a powerful tool in validating hydrocarbon anomalies in undrilled areas and assist in seismic interpretation and prospect evaluation. However, the success of RPT analysis depends on the availability of the local geological information and the use of the proper model. RPT analysis has been performed on well logs and seismic data of a particular study area in mid Cambay Basin. Rock physics diagnostic approach is adopted in the study area placed at mid Cambay Basin to estimate the volume in the reservoir sands from 6 wells (namely; A, B, C, D, E and F) where oil was already encountered in one well, D. In the study area, hydrocarbon prospective zone has been marked through compressional (P wave) and shear wave (S wave) impedance only. In the RPT analysis, we have plotted different kinds of graphical responses of Lame’s parameters, which are the function of P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. The discrete thin sand reservoirs have been delineated through the RPT analysis. The reservoir pay sand thickness map of the study area has also been derived from RPT analysis and fluid characterization. Through this fluid characterization, oil-bearing thin sand layers have been found in well E including well D. The sand distribution results prove that this methodology has able to perform reservoir characterization and seismic data interpretation more quantitatively and efficiently.     

Role of Storm in Ramgarh and West Bokaro Coalfields and Its Implication in Adjacent Peninsular Gondwana Coalfields, India

The Permian Gondwana sediments in the Damodar-Koel Valley, Rajmahal and Deoghar basins were deposited on a northwest palaeoslope in broad valleys within uplands (e.g. Aravalli-Vindhyan, Chattisgarh, Chotanagpur and Santhal Parganas upland). The main winds during Permian Period were mostly the westerly winds coming from the northwest low pressure belt in the Tethys, which found no barrier between the Vindhyan and Santhal Parganas uplands and then changing its direction, moving towards east. Frequent storm activity also took place from the northwest Tethyan low pressure belt and followed the same path of wind. Possibly there was a barrier in the form of a dense rain forest or elevated land at the place of East Bokaro coalfield and its adjoining southern part, which acted as a deterrent and minimized the effect of storm towards further east of the Damodar Valley. Intense tropical hurricanes for the generation of storm generated bedforms, cannot be ruled out, which probably, in some cases, causes marine inundation/flooding deep into the landmass and also mass (?) uprooting of trees.     

A Spatial Database of Cropping System and its Characteristics to Aid Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies

Cropping system study is not only useful to understand the overall sustainability of agricultural system, but also it helps in generating many important parameters which are useful in climate change impact assessment. Considering its importance, Space Applications Centre, took up a project for mapping and characterizing major cropping systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. The study area included the five states of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, i.e. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. There were two aspects of the study. The first aspect included state and district level cropping system mapping using multi-date remote sensing (IRS-AWiFS and Radarsat ScanSAR) data. The second part was to characterize the cropping system using moderate spatial resolution multi-date remote sensing data (SPOT VGT NDVI) and ground survey. The remote sensing data was used to compute three cropping system performance indices (Multiple Cropping Index, Area Diversity Index and Cultivated Land Utilization Index). Ground survey was conducted using questionnaires filled up by 1,000 farmers selected from 103 villages based on the cropping systems map. Apart from ground survey, soil and water sampling and quality analysis were carried out to understand the effect of different cropping systems and their management practices. The results showed that, rice-wheat was the major cropping system of the IGP, followed by Rice-Fallow-Fallow and Maize-Wheat. Other major cropping systems of IGP included Sugarcane based, Pearl millet-Wheat, Rice-Fallow-Rice, Cotton-Wheat. The ground survey could identify 77 cropping systems, out of which 38 are rice-based systems. Out of these 77 cropping systems, there were 5 single crop systems, occupying 6.5% coverage (of all cropping system area), 56 double crop systems with 72.7% coverage, and 16 triple crop systems with 20.8% coverage. The cropping system performance analysis showed that the crop diversity was found to be highest in Haryana, while the cropping intensity was highest in Punjab state.     

Analysis of Circular Elastic Plate Resting on Pasternak Foundation by Strain Energy Approach

In this paper, an analytical expression for the deflection of a thin circular elastic plate resting on the Pasternak foundation is derived by adopting the strain energy approach. The parametric study is carried out to observe the location of the plate lift-off and the variation of the deflection profiles for comparing the variation pattern reported in the literature based on an approximate solution technique. It is found that the radial distance of the point of lift-off of the plate decreases with increase in the values of both the shear modulus and the modulus of subgrade reaction of the foundation soil; the reduction being more for their lower values. It is also observed that the variation in deflection of the plate at any radial distance due to change in soil subgrade conditions is significant for lower values of modulus of subgrade reaction.     

Velocity of ground water percolation at Indaram, Godavari sub-basin, India

We present values of velocity of ground water percolation (Vg) over large depth intervals, varying from shallow to deeper depths in Indaram area of Godavari sub-basin. The velocities have been estimated using available measured geothermal data. Sub-surface temperatures were measured in seven boreholes. Terrestrial heat flow values are calculated using temperature data and measured values of thermal conductivity of core samples. The results show that Vg is ～3.4 ×10^?7 cm /sec in the top layers (70–150 m) and decreases to ～0.04×10^?7 cm/sec in the deeper levels around 350 m depth and becomes negligibly small thereafter, thereby, indicating that the overall permeability of the sub-surface layers, due to the occurrence of successions of permeable, semi-permeable layers gets reduced to more or less zero at depths around 350 m. The value of Thermal Peclet Number, which is the ratio of the heat transfer through convection to that through conduction, naturally becomes negligible around this depth in the area. The observed consistency of the magnitude of heat flow through various deep sections is a clear indicator that water percolation is practically reduced to zero at depths around 320–400 m and that conduction is the dominant mechanism of heat transfer below the inferred depth section, while the upper layers are dominated by recharge at various depths by near surface water from streams at Indaram.     

Occurrence of paragonite in the hydrothermalwall rock alteration zone of G. R. Halli gold deposit, Chitradurga Schist Belt, Western Dharwar Craton, Southern India

Paragonite (NaAl₂Si₃AlO₁₀(OH)₂), a dioctahedral sodium mica, occurs as a minor phase in the wall rock alteration assemblage of the Guddadarangavanahalli (G. R. Halli) gold deposit of Western Dharwar Craton, Karnataka. It occurs as colourless to pale yellowish grains and scaly aggregates in chlorite, ankerite and quartz rich matrix of the altered metabasalt. Its presence is noticed in the distal to near proximal wall rock alteration zone, mainly in the southern part of the G. R. Halli gold deposit. Presence of paragonite is identified by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Electron Probe Micro-Analyzer (EPMA) studies. The Na₂O content of the paragonite varies between 5.96 wt% and 7.8 wt% whereas K₂O ranges from 0.44–2.68 wt%. Al₂O₃ is measured between 37.73 wt% and 39.72 wt% whereas SiO₂ varies from 45.06–47.19 wt%. The relative proportion of Na and K in paragonite varies between Na₉₆K₄ and Na₇₇K₂₃. The occurrence of paragonite in the wall rock alteration halo of the G. R. Halli gold deposit is proposed as a result of hydrolysis of metamorphosed plagioclase feldspars during the interaction of the hydrothermal fluids and the wall rock.