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61.
    
Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses.  相似文献   
62.
    
The meridional circulation plays an essential role in determining the basic mechanism of the dynamo action in the case of a low eddy diffusivity. Flux-transport dynamos with strong return flow and a deep stagnation point are discussed in the case of a positive α-effect located in the overshoot layer and a rotation law consistent with helioseismology. By means of a linear dynamo model, it will be shown that the migration of the toroidal belts at lower latitudes and the periods of the activity cycles are consistent with the observations. Moreover, at variance with previous investigations, the typical critical dynamo numbers of dipolar solutions are significantly smaller than those of quadrupolar solutions even in the regime of strong flow.  相似文献   
63.
A two-phase model for fast geomorphic shallow flows   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The paper introduces a 2D shallow water model based on a two-phase formulation for the analysis of fast geomorphic transients occurring in the context of river morphodynamics.Mass and momentum conservation principles are separately imposed for both phases.The model naturally accounts for non-equilibrium solid transport,since neither instantaneous adaptation hypothesis nor any lag equation is employed to represent sediment dynamics.The hyperbolic character of the proposed model is shown to be preserved independently on the flow conditions.Results from numerical simulations of both 1D and 2D test-cases are compared with literature experimental data and with available numerical solutions.  相似文献   
64.
Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.  相似文献   
65.
    
Single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 192 sites in the western part of Istanbul, Turkey. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover to be mapped, and identify areas prone to site amplification. The results are in good agreement with the geological distribution of sedimentary units, indicating a progressive decrease of the fundamental resonance frequencies from the northeastern part, where the bedrock outcrops, towards the southwestern side, where a thickness of some hundreds meters for the sedimentary cover is estimated. The particular distribution of fundamental resonance frequencies indicates that local amplification of the ground motion might play a significative role in explaining the anomalous damage distribution after the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake.  相似文献   
66.
    
Probabilistically controlled design values of the nonlinear seismic response of reinforced concrete frames are obtained using a method previously proposed by the authors. The method allows to calculate conservative design values characterized by a predefined non‐exceedance probability, using a limited number of spectrum‐fitting generated accelerograms. Herein the method is applied to elastic‐strain hardening single degree of freedom systems representative of RC framed structures and is then assessed with reference to four reinforced concrete model frames designed according to EC8. The frames are characterized by different natural periods and aspect ratios. The results, compared with those obtained applying current EC8 recommendations, show the effectiveness of the proposed method. EC8 provides for design values of the seismic response of a structure with a nonlinear behavior computed as the mean value of the responses to seven accelerograms or as the maximum value of the responses to three accelerograms. These two criteria lead to design values characterized by very different and uncontrolled non‐exceedance probability levels, while the proposed method allows the analyst to directly control the non‐exceedance probability level of the calculated design values. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
67.
    
Estuaries are important subcomponents of the coastal ocean, but knowledge about the temporal and spatial variability of their carbonate chemistry, as well as their contribution to coastal and global carbon fluxes, are limited. In the present study, we measured the temporal and spatial variability of biogeochemical parameters in a saltmarsh estuary in Southern California, the San Dieguito Lagoon (SDL). We also estimated the flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total organic carbon (TOC) to the adjacent coastal ocean over diel and seasonal timescales. The combined net flux of DIC and TOC (FDIC?+?TOC) to the ocean during outgoing tides ranged from ??1.8±0.5?×?103 to 9.5±0.7?×?103?mol C h?1 during baseline conditions. Based on these fluxes, a rough estimate of the net annual export of DIC and TOC totaled 10±4?×?106?mol C year?1. Following a major rain event (36 mm rain in 3 days), FDIC?+?TOC increased and reached values as high as 29.0 ±?0.7?×?103?mol C h?1. Assuming a hypothetical scenario of three similar storm events in a year, our annual net flux estimate more than doubled to 25 ±?4?×?106?mol C year?1. These findings highlight the importance of assessing coastal carbon fluxes on different timescales and incorporating event scale variations in these assessments. Furthermore, for most of the observations elevated levels of total alkalinity (TA) and pH were observed at the estuary mouth relative to the coastal ocean. This suggests that SDL partly buffers against acidification of adjacent coastal surface waters, although the spatial extent of this buffering is likely small.  相似文献   
68.
    
This paper deals with a new critical state–based constitutive model for soft rocks and fine-grained soils. The model, formulated in the single-surface plasticity framework, is characterised by the following main features: (i) a generalised three-invariant yield surface capable of reproducing a wide set of well-known criteria, (ii) the dependency of the elastic stiffness on the current stress state by means of a hyperelastic formulation, (iii) the ability of simulating the plastic strain–driven structure degradation processes by a set of appropriate isotropic hardening laws, and (iv) a nonassociate flow rule in the meridian plane. The adopted formulation is hierarchical, such that the various features of the model can be activated or excluded depending on the specific kind of geomaterial to be modelled and on the quality and quantity of the related available experimental results. The constitutive model was implemented in a commercial finite element code by means of an explicit modified Euler scheme with automatic substepping and error control. The procedure does not require any form of stress correction to prevent drift from the yield surface. The performance of the model is first analysed by means of a wide set of parametric analyses, in order to highlight the main features and to evaluate the sensitivity of the formulation with reference to the input parameters. The model is then adopted to simulate the experimental response observed on three different geomaterials, ranging from soft clays to soft rocks.  相似文献   
69.
Angelo Turco 《GeoJournal》2004,60(4):329-337
Territorial symbolism in sub-Saharan Africa calls to mind multiple forms of knowledge. More particularly, territorial significance is fed both by magical and sacred beliefs and by knowledge based on empirical observation and concrete practices. These two types of knowledge differ widely as to their nature, the procedures by which they are formed, and the cultural values they embody. Nevertheless, semantic interaction between mythical knowledge and technical knowledge is remarkably rich. By blurring the distinction between mythos and techne, this semantic interaction seems to constitute an important cultural tool for building feelings of social security in that it reinforces and stabilizes socio-geographic patterns, and more especially those which regulate access to space and natural resources. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
70.
Most thermal springs of continental Yemen (about 65 emergences at 48 sampling sites) and a couple of fumaroles and boiling water pools have been sampled and analyzed for chemical and isotopic composition in the liquid phase and the associated free-gas phase. Whatever the emergence, all the water discharges have an isotopic signature of meteoric origin. Springs seeping out from high altitudes in the central volcanic plateau show a prevalent Na–HCO3-composition, clearly affected by an anomalous flux of deep CO2 deriving from active hydrothermal systems located in the Jurassic Amran Group limestone sequence and/or the Cretaceous Tawilah Group, likely underlying the 2000–3000 m thick volcanic suite. At lower elevations, CO2 also affects the composition of some springs emerging at the borders of the central volcanic plateau.  相似文献   
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