Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (ΔT_g). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ΔT_g reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change”. Unless ΔT_g is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.     

Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area

This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales.     

Coastal Ocean Last Glacial Maximum to 2100 CO2-Carbonic Acid-Carbonate System: A Modeling Approach

Using coupled terrestrial and coastal zone models, we investigated the impacts of deglaciation and anthropogenic inputs on the CO₂–H₂O–CaCO₃ system in global coastal ocean waters from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 18,000 year BP) to the year 2100. With rising sea level and atmospheric CO₂, the carbonate system of coastal ocean water changed significantly. We find that 6 × 10¹² metric tons of carbon were emitted from the coastal ocean, growing due to the sea level rise, from the LGM to late preindustrial time (1700 AD) because of net heterotrophy and calcification processes. This carbon came to reside in the atmosphere and in the growing vegetation on land and in uptake of atmospheric CO₂ through the weathering of rocks on land. It appears that carbonate accumulation, mainly, but not exclusively, in coral reefs from the LGM to late preindustrial time could account for about 24 ppmv of the 100 ppmv rise in atmospheric CO₂, lending some support to the “coral reef hypothesis”. In addition, the global coastal ocean is now, or soon will be, a sink of atmospheric CO₂. The temperature rise of 4–5°C since the LGM led to increased weathering rates of inorganic and organic materials on land and enhanced riverine fluxes of total C, N, and P to the coastal ocean of 68%, 108%, and 97%, respectively, from the LGM to late preindustrial time. During the Anthropocene, these trends have been exacerbated owing to rising atmospheric CO₂, due to fossil fuel combustion and land-use practices, other human activities, and rising global temperatures. River fluxes of total reactive C, N, and P are projected to increase from late preindustrial time to the year 2100 by 150%, 380%, and 257%, respectively, modifying significantly the behavior of these element cycles in the coastal ocean, particularly in proximal environments. Despite the fact that the global shoal water carbonate mass has grown extensively since the LGM, the pH_T (pH values on the total proton scale) of global coastal waters has decreased from ~8.35 to ~8.18 and the carbonate ion concentration declined by ~19% from the LGM to late preindustrial time. The latter represents a rate of decline of about 0.028 μmol CO₃ ^2? per decade. In comparison, the decrease in coastal water pH_T from the year 1900 to 2000 was about 8.18–8.08 and is projected to decrease further from about 8.08 to 7.85 between 2000 and 2100, according to the IS92a business-as-usual scenario of CO₂ emissions. Over these 200 years, the carbonate ion concentration will fall by ~120 μmol kg^?1 or 6 μmol kg^?1 per decade. This decadal rate of decline of the carbonate ion concentration in the Anthropocene is 214 times the average rate of decline for the entire Holocene. Hence, when viewed against the millennial to several millennial timescale of geologic change in the coastal ocean marine carbon system, one can easily appreciate why ocean acidification is the “other CO₂ problem”.     

Speeding Up the Analytical Workflow for Coltan Fingerprinting by an Integrated Mineral Liberation Analysis/LA‐ICP‐MS Approach

Coltan (the African trade name for columbite‐tantalite, a tantalum ore) is one of several raw materials that finance the civil wars in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To improve the transparency along the tantalum trade chain, a ‘certificate of origin’ for so‐called ‘conflict minerals’ has been recommended by the United Nations. Accordingly, the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has developed an analytical fingerprint procedure for coltan. Mineral formation age, modal mineralogy and chemical composition are important fingerprint parameters. The original workflow to obtain these parameters was streamlined and is now based on mineral liberation analysis and LA‐ICP‐MS. The use of an ICP‐MS instrument with a detector system covering an extended linear dynamic range and the application of an internal standard‐independent calibration strategy allowed data for major and trace element determination and mineral formation age estimates to be obtained simultaneously. The analytical results of this new approach were compared with analytical techniques of the original workflow and showed excellent agreement in terms of mineralogical and chemical characterisation and mineral formation age of coltan samples. Within a test, samples of different origin were allocated correctly and simple, binary mixtures were also identified successfully.     

First record of the leptonectid ichthyosaur <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eurhinosaurus longirostris</Emphasis> from the Early Jurassic of Switzerland and its stratigraphic framework

An incomplete skull of the leptonectid ichthyosaur Eurhinosaurus longirostris found in the Rietheim Member (previously “Posidonienschiefer”; Toarcian, Early Jurassic) of Staffelegg, Canton Aargau, is the first record from Switzerland of this taxon and supports the status of Eurhinosaurus longirostris as a palaeobiogeographic very widespread ichthyosaur species in the Early Toarcian of Western Europe. Being from either the Bifrons or Variabilis zone, it is one of the youngest records of Eurhinosaurus and one of the few diagnostic ichthyosaur finds from this time interval. The partial skull is well articulated and preserved three-dimensionally in a carbonate concretion. Both the mode of preservation of the ichthyosaur and an associated ammonoid (Catacoeloceras raquinianum) provided the age of the concretion, which had been collected from scree. Taphocoenosis and taphonomy show the C. raquinianum to be one of few non re-worked fossils recorded from the Early to Late Toarcian boundary (Bifrons/Variabilis zone) of northern Switzerland in general and of this ammonite species in particular. The Toarcian section at Staffelegg differs from other localities where strata of the same age are exposed with respect to facies variations of the Rietheim Member (previously “Posidonienschiefer”, Early Toarcian) and the extraordinarily high thickness of the Gross Wolf Member (previously “Jurensis-Mergel”, Late Toarcian).     

Origin of high Zn contents in Jurassic limestone of the Jura mountain range and the Burgundy: evidence from Zn speciation and distribution

In order to better understand the origin and enrichment mechanisms leading to elevated Zn concentrations in Jurassic limestone of the Jura mountain range (JMR) and the Burgundy (B), we investigated four locations of Bajocian age (JMR: Lausen–Schleifenberg, Gurnigel; B: Vergisson–Davayé, Lucy-le-Bois) and two locations of Oxfordian age (JMR: Dornach, Pichoux) for their Zn distribution and speciation. Measurements of the acid-extractable and bulk Zn contents showed that Zn is stratigraphically and spatially heterogeneously distributed, in association with permeable carbonate levels. Up to 3,580 and 207 mg/kg Zn was detected in Bajocian and Oxfordian limestone, respectively, with numerous limestone samples having Zn contents above 50 mg/kg. Using X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy and micro-X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, the speciation and micro-scale distribution of Zn was investigated for selected limestone samples. In Bajocian limestone sphalerite and/or Zn-substituted goethite and a minor fraction of Zn-bearing carbonates were identified. In contrast, Zn-bearing carbonates (Zn-substituted calcite and hydrozincite) were accounting for most of the total Zn in Oxfordian limestone. The micro-scale distribution of Zn for Bajocian and Oxfordian limestone was however similar with localized Zn-rich zones in the limestone cement and at the rim of oolites. The stratigraphic sporadicity and microscale heterogeneity of the Zn distribution together with the Zn speciation results point to a hydrothermal origin of Zn. Occurence of Zn-goethite is probably linked to the oxidative transformation of framboidal pyrite and hydrothermal sphalerite in contact with meteoritic waters. Difference in speciation between Bajocian limestone and Oxfordian limestone may be related to differences in rock permeability and/or to various hydrothermal events. Isotopic dating of the different mineralizations will be needed to decipher differences in Zn speciation and the precise chronology of hydrothermal episodes.     

Changes in North Sea macrofauna communities and species distribution between 1986 and 2000

The North Sea Benthos Project 2000 was initiated as a follow-up to the 1986 ICES North Sea Benthos Survey with the major aim to identify changes in the macrofauna species distribution and community structure in the North Sea and their likely causes.The results showed that the large-scale spatial distribution of macrofauna communities in the North Sea hardly changed between 1986 and 2000, with the main divisions at the 50 m and 100 m depth contours. Water temperature and salinity as well as wave exposure, tidal stress and primary production were influential environmental factors on a large (North Sea-wide) spatial scale.The increase in abundance and regional changes in distribution of various species with a southern distribution in the North Sea in 2000 were largely associated with an increase in sea surface temperature, primary production and, thus, food supply. This can be most likely related to the North Sea hydro-climate change in the late 1980s influenced by the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Only one cold-temperate species decreased in abundance in 2000 at most of the stations. Indications for newly established populations of offshore non-native species were not found.Differences in macrofauna community structure on localised spatial scales were predominantly found north of the 50 m depth contour off the British coast along the Flamborough Head Front towards the Dogger Bank, off the coast of Jutland and at the Frisian Front. These changes were most likely attributed to stronger frontal systems in 2000 caused by the increased inflow of Atlantic water masses in relation to the hydro-climate change in the late 1980s.     

Induced seismicity due to hydraulic fracturing near Blackpool,UK: source modeling and event detection

Journal of Seismology - Monitoring small magnitude induced seismicity requires a dense network of seismic stations and high-quality recordings in order to precisely determine events’...     

Integral risk management: steps on the way from theory to practice

The best strategy to cope with natural hazards is the integral risk management, which involves all participants, decides on the basis of risks and also accepts a residual risk. Therefore, a substantial risk dialogue is essential not only to encourage self-responsibility. Even if throughout the Alpine perimeter this is accepted by the administration and the experts, the difficulties lie in the detail on the way to a full implementation of the effective risk management into practice. Therefore, a series of expert hearings and workshops was carried out in Bavaria to highlight the status of risk dialogue and point out the need for further development. In the beginning, an expert hearing dealt with the status of torrential risk management and worked out recommendations, focusing on the phases of reconstruction, preparation and prevention. On this basis, a practitioner workshop developed solution concepts for two case studies regarding all elements of the integral risk management. One of these was further regarded in a final workshop together with the municipality to encourage risk awareness, risk dialogue and to estimate the benefit of the measures. The activities and the results are described and summarized in the following article.     

Aquifer heat storage: sulphate reduction with acetate at increased temperatures

Aquifer thermal energy storage in urban and industrial areas can lead to an increase in subsurface temperature to 70 °C and more. Besides its impacts on mineral and sorption equilibria and chemical reaction kinetics in an aquifer, temperature sensitively influences microbial activity and thus redox processes, such as sulphate reduction. Microorganism species can only operate within limited temperature ranges and their adaptability to temperature is a crucial point for the assessment of the environmental consequences of subsurface heat storage. Column experiments with aquifer sediment and tap water at 10, 25, 40, and 70 °C showed that under the constant addition of acetate sulphate reduction could be initiated after 26–63 pore volumes exchanged at all temperatures. Fastest initiation of sulphate reduction with the highest reduction rates was found at 40 °C. Maximum rate constants during experimental run-time were 0.56 h^?1 at 40 °C and 0.33, 0.36, and 0.25 h^?1 at 10 and, 25, and 70 °C, respectively. Hence, microbial activity was enhanced by a temperature increase to 40 °C but was significantly lowered at 70 °C. At 25 °C methane was found in solution, indicating the presence of fermenting organisms; at 10, 40, and 70 °C no methane production was observed. It could be shown that redox processes in an aquifer generally can adapt to temperatures significantly higher than in situ temperature and that the efficiency of the reduction process can be enhanced by temperature increase to a certain limit. Enhancement of sulphate reduction in an aquifer due to temperature increase could also allow enhanced degradation of organic ground water contaminants such as BTEX, where sulphate is an important electron acceptor.