Validity of the Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios

Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO₂ emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.     

Comparison of abstraction scenarios simulated by SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW

In hydrological modelling of catchments, wherein streams are groundwater-fed, an accurate representation of groundwater processes and their interaction with surface water is crucial. With this purpose, a coupled model was recently developed linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) with the fully-distributed groundwater model MODFLOW (Modular Groundwater Flow). In this study, SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were applied to a Danish groundwater-dominant catchment, simulating groundwater abstraction scenarios and assessing the benefits and drawbacks of SWAT-MODFLOW. Both models demonstrated good performance. However, SWAT-MODFLOW provided more realistic outputs when simulating abstraction: the decrease in streamflow was similar to the volume of water abstracted, while in SWAT the impact was negligible. SWAT also showed impacts on streamflow only when abstractions were taken from the shallow aquifer, not from the deep aquifer. Overall, SWAT-MODFLOW demonstrated wider possibilities for groundwater analysis, providing more insights than SWAT in supporting decision making in relation to environmental assessment.     

Coexisting pyroxenes — a multivariate statistical approach

A population of 117 coexisting nonalkaline pyroxene pairs has been studied statistically to evaluate compositional and thermal effects on the element distribution. K_DMg^opx-cpx is influenced by the Fe/Mg-ratio, by the Ca content—especially of clinopyroxene—and by the content of tetrahedral Al. Fe and tetrahedral Al are found to be negatively correlated. A principal component analysis based on the variation of Si, Al^IV, Al^VI, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ca is performed. Dropping of highly correlated variables does not affect the result significantly. The first principal component reflects the major chemical variation in Fe and Mg. When using ferrous and ferric iron as separate entries of the analysis, either the second or the third component demonstrates a temperature dependence. It is, however, not possible to obtain pure temperature and chemical components due to the composition not being uncorrelated to temperature of formation. From these components a graph reflecting temperature of formation has been constructed.     

Sediment flux from a fjord during glacial periods, Isfjorden, Spitsbergen

Sediment has accumulated in Isfjorden, a deep fjord in Spitsbergen, at a rate of 1.7 km³/k.y. during the past 13 k.y. Between 200 ka and 13 ka the fjord was free of ice for 120 k.y. Assuming a similar sediment delivery rate during this ice-free time, 200 km³ of sediment would have accumulated in the fjord. An alternative calculation based on erosion rates suggests that 400 km³ could have been delivered to Isfjorden during this 120 k.y.Seismic studies have identified a 330 km³ package of sediment on the continental shelf and slope west of Isfjorden. This sediment is believed to have accumulated between 200 ka and 13 ka. Herein we argue that this is sediment that was originally deposited in the fjord, and that it was transferred to the shelf by glaciers in the 70 ka during which the fjord was occupied by ice. Calculations using a steady-state numerical model suggest that the sediment could have been moved in a deforming layer of subglacial till and in subglacial melt streams at rates of 7.6 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹ and 0.3 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹, respectively, resulting in a total flux of 7.9 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹. It is unlikely that much sediment was moved in a basal layer of dirty ice, as intense basal melting would have inhibited sediment entrainment.Of the time that glaciers occupied the fjord, 60% would have been required to evacuate the accumulated sediment. During the remaining time, the ice could have been deepening the fjord.     

Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level

We propose linear response functions to separately estimate the sea-level contributions of thermal expansion and solid ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. The response function formalism introduces a time-dependence which allows for future rates of sea-level rise to be influenced by past climate variations. We find that this time-dependence is of the same functional type, R(t) ～ t ^α, for each of the three subsystems considered here. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to projections from comprehensive models. The pure vertical diffusion case in one dimension, corresponding to α =  ?0.5, is a valid approximation for thermal expansion within the ocean up to the middle of the twenty first century for all Representative Concentration Pathways. The approximation is significantly improved for α =  ? 0.7. For the solid ice discharge from Greenland we find an optimal value of α =  ?0.7. Different from earlier studies we conclude that solid ice discharge from Greenland due to dynamic thinning is bounded by 0.42 m sea-level equivalent. Ice discharge induced by surface warming on Antarctica is best captured by a positive value of α = 0.1 which reflects the fact that ice loss increases with the cumulative amount of heat available for softening the ice in our model.     

Impact of Hydropower Regulation on River Water Composition in Northern Sweden

Using hydrogeochemical analysis of two large boreal rivers (pristine Kalix and hydropower regulated Lule) discharging into the Gulf of Bothnia, the major impacts of regulation on water discharge, element transport and their seasonal redistribution have been assessed. The pre-regulation hydrogeochemical features were assumed to be similar for the two rivers. For the Lule River, the average maximum runoff was almost halved, while the average minimum was tripled as a result of the regulation. The fraction of winter transport of total organic carbon (TOC), Fe, Si, suspended Mn and P in the Lule River was, according to a conservative estimate, two to three times higher than in the pristine river. Longer residence time in the Lule River delayed arrival of the suspended Mn peak and dissolved Si decline to the river mouth. During summer, the suspended C/N ratio in the regulated river was 10–20 compared to <10 for the pristine, suggesting presence of predominantly old organic material. This was supported by a virtually constant suspended P/Fe ratio throughout the year in the Lule River, indicating low abundance of phytoplankton. TOC varied irregularly in the Lule River suggesting temporal disconnection between the river and the upper riparian zone. The disappearance of the spring flow maximum, a shift of element transport from spring to winter and supply of mainly old organic material during the vegetation growth season may have a pronounced impact on the ecosystem of the Gulf of Bothnia and the river itself.     

Rheological properties of Na-smectite gels used for rock sealing

The use of Na-smectite clay gels for sealing rock fractures is studied in phase 3 of the Strips project. The rheological properties of these gels and the mathematical formulations necessary to simulate the behaviour are presented in this article, including the breakdown of the structure at small strains as well as the flow behaviour of the vibrated and unvibrated gel.

An important conclusion is that the flow properties of an unvibrated gel do not follow Newton's classical viscosity law, while the shear resistance of the gel affected by vibrations is strongly reduced and the flow behaviour is Newtonian.     

Do stony meteorites come from comets?

The place of origin of stony meteorites can be determined from their trapped solar-wind gases. “Gas-rich” meteorites have only 10^?3?10^?4 the solar noble gas content and ?10^?2?10^?4 the surface exposure age of lunar soils. These differences suggest that the gas implantation took place between 1 and 8 AU from the Sun, in a region where the cratering rate was 10²?10³ times higher than at 1 AU. Both characteristics point to the asteroid belt. The predicted Ne²⁰ content a gas-rich meteorite formed at 2.5 AU is 1.2 × 10^?5 cc STP g^?1, compared to an observed mean for H-chondrites of 0.5 × 10^?5 cc STP g^?1. The observed prevalence of gas-rich meteorites (40–100% among carbonaceous chondrites, 2–33% among other classes) requires that the parent body remained long enough in the asteroid belt to develop a substantial regolith. This condition can be met by asteroids (～ 10% of mass converted to regolith.in 4.5 × 10⁹ yr), but not by short period comets (～0.04% converted in 10⁷ yr). It appears that a cometary origin can be ruled out for all stony meteorite clases that have gas-rich members. This includes carbonaceous chondrites.     

Fish Behaviour in Exploited Ecosystems: Preface

I don't know. The editor did it when I was away.Rupert MurdochGuardian, 25 February 1994 It is an honour to edit the proceedings of this successful InternationalSymposium and we thank ICES for the invitation. The editingwas very much a team effort. The choice of referees and selectionof papers rested