Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

Paleoweathering features in the Sergi Formation (Jurassic-Cretaceous), northeastern Brazil,and implications for hydrocarbon exploration

Paleoweathering in the Sergi Formation has been classified and analyzed to ascertain its origin and relationship with stratigraphic evolution. The Sergi Formation belongs to the pre-rift sequence of the Recôncavo Basin (northeastern Brazil) and comprises a complex association of eolian and fluvial sandstones and lacustrine mudstones. This formation can be subdivided into three depositional sequences bounded by regional unconformities. Four paleoweathering types, each one related to a distinct origin, have been described in the Sergi Formation: (1) textural mottling, which is distinguished by alternating rock colors as a result of the iron oxide mobilization within mineral phases that evolved under alternating oxidation (yellowish, brownish and reddish shades) and reduction (grayish or greenish hues) conditions; (2) non-textural mottling, which displays a discoloration pattern that is independent of the original rock texture; (3) carbonate concentrations, usually related to carbonate nodule formation, which display a massive internal structure that reveals their origin through continuous growth or crystallization; and (4) banded carbonates (silicified), associated with the beginning of regular surface formation due to the chemical precipitation of carbonates within lacustrine environments. Both mottling color motifs and carbonate accumulation usually represent groundwater oscillation rather than pedogenesis. Only carbonate intraclasts and banded carbonate (silicified) have their origin ascribed to pedogenesis sensu stricto, although the carbonate intraclasts do not represent soil deposits in situ, but calcretes eroded from areas close to channels, and the banded carbonates (silicified) have strong diagenetic modifications. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that fluvial and meteoric water have controlled paleoweathering evolution as well as deposition, yet both aspects are ruled by the same mechanisms (relief, sedimentation rate and, above all, climate).     

Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basin and anthropogenic climate change

The La Plata Basin (LPB) is one of the most important regions for agriculture and livestock production in South America, playing a central role in the world food production and food security. Within its borders is also located the whole Brazilian Pantanal region. Identifying the most important land use sectors in LPB as well as the changes observed in the past years is fundamental to recognize which areas of the basin might be more vulnerable to climate change in order to design adaptation strategies. A general characterization of land use and livestock production of Brazilian LPB was done by using the System of Automatic Retrieving (SIDRA) of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform as the major source of data. It was observed expressive increases in land areas used for temporary crops, such as soybean, sugarcane, and maize, as well as increases in poultry and swine production. These important changes in agricultural land use and livestock production are currently associated to non-climatic drivers, but this dynamic might be strongly affected by the consequences of climate change and variability, with negative socio-economic impacts for the whole region.     

A new design of the LAPS land surface scheme for use over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces: Numerical simulations and tests

Numerical simulations and tests with the recently redesigned land–air parameterization scheme (LAPS) are presented. In all experiments, supported either by one-point micrometeorological, 1D or 3D simulations, the attention has been directed to: (1) comparison of simulation outputs, expressing the energy transfer over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces, versus observations and (2) analysis of uncertainties occurring in the solution of the energy balance equation at the land–air interface. To check the proposed method for aggregation of albedo, “propagating hole” sensitivity tests with LAPS over a sandstone rock grid cell have been performed with the forcing meteorological data for July 17, 1999 in Baxter site, Philadelphia (USA). Micrometeorological and biophysical measurements from the surface experiments conducted over crops and apple orchard in Serbia, Poland, Austria and France were used to test the operation of LAPS in calculating surface fluxes and canopy environment temperatures within and above plant covers of different densities. In addition, sensitivity tests with single canopy covers over the Central Europe region and comparison against the observations taken from SYNOP data using 3D simulations were made. Validation of LAPS performances over a solid surface has been done by comparison of 2 m air temperature observations against 5-day simulations over the Sahara Desert rocky ground using 3D model. To examine how realistically the LAPS simulates surface processes over a heterogeneous surface, we compared the air temperature measured at 2 m and that predicted by the 1D model with the LAPS as the surface scheme. Finally, the scheme behaviour over urban surface was tested by runs over different parts of a hypothetical urban area. The corresponding 1D simulations were carried out with an imposed meteorological dataset collected during HAPEX-MOBILHY experiment at Caumont (France). The quantities predicted by the LAPS compare well with the observations and the various subcomponents of the scheme appear to operate realistically.     

Kinetics of the reactions of Cl atoms with 2-buten-1-ol, 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol, and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol as a function of temperature

The reactions of three structurally similar unsaturated alcohols, 2-buten-1-ol (crotyl alcohol), 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol (MPO221) and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol (MBO321) with Cl atoms, have been investigated for the first time, using a 400 l Teflon reaction chamber coupled with gas chromatograph-coupled with flame-ionization detection (GC-FID). The experiments were performed at atmospheric pressure and at temperatures between 255 and 298 K, in air or nitrogen as the bath gas. The obtained kinetic data were used to derive the Arrhenius expressions , , (in units of cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹). Finally, atmospheric lifetimes of those unsaturated alcohols with respect to OH, NO₃, O₃ and Cl have been calculated.     

A global model study of natural bromine sources and the effects on tropospheric chemistry using MOZART4

Halogens in the atmosphere chemically destroy ozone. In the troposphere, bromine has higher ozone destruction efficiency than chlorine and is the halogen species with the widest geographical spread of natural sources. We investigate the relative strength of various sources of reactive tropospheric bromine and the influence of bromine on tropospheric chemistry using a 6-year simulation with the global chemistry transport model MOZART4. We consider the following sources: short-lived bromocarbons (CHBr₃, CH₂BrCl, CHBr₂Cl, CHBrCl₂, and CH₂Br₂) and CH₃Br, bromine from airborne sea salt particles, and frost flowers and sea salt on or in the snowpack in polar regions. The total bromine emissions in our simulations add up to 31.7 Gmol(Br)/yr: 63 % from polar sources, 24.6 % from short-lived bromocarbons and 12.4 % from airborne sea salt particles. We conclude from our analysis that our global bromine emission is likely to be on the lower end of the range, because of too low emissions from airborne sea salt. Bromine chemistry has an effect on the oxidation capacity of the troposphere, not only due to its direct influence on ozone concentrations, but also by reactions with other key chemical species like HO _x and NO _x . Globally, the impact of bromine chemistry on tropospheric O₃ is comparable to the impact of gas-phase sulfur chemistry, since the inclusion of bromine chemistry in MOZART4 leads to a decrease of the O₃ burden in the troposphere by 6 Tg, while we get an increase by 5 Tg if gas-phase sulfur chemistry is switched off in the standard model. With decreased ozone burden, the simulated oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere decreases thus affecting species associated with the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere (CH₃OOH, H₂O₂).     

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.