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91.
Ana Carolina F. de Vasconcelos Sandro L. Schlindwein Marcos A. Lana Alfredo C. Fantini Michelle Bonatti Luiz R. D’Agostini Sergio R. Martins 《Climatic change》2014,127(1):73-81
The La Plata Basin (LPB) is one of the most important regions for agriculture and livestock production in South America, playing a central role in the world food production and food security. Within its borders is also located the whole Brazilian Pantanal region. Identifying the most important land use sectors in LPB as well as the changes observed in the past years is fundamental to recognize which areas of the basin might be more vulnerable to climate change in order to design adaptation strategies. A general characterization of land use and livestock production of Brazilian LPB was done by using the System of Automatic Retrieving (SIDRA) of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform as the major source of data. It was observed expressive increases in land areas used for temporary crops, such as soybean, sugarcane, and maize, as well as increases in poultry and swine production. These important changes in agricultural land use and livestock production are currently associated to non-climatic drivers, but this dynamic might be strongly affected by the consequences of climate change and variability, with negative socio-economic impacts for the whole region. 相似文献
92.
Jean Pierre Ometto Ana Paula Aguiar Talita Assis Luciana Soler Pedro Valle Graciela Tejada David M. Lapola Patrick Meir 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):545-560
As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account. 相似文献
93.
94.
Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality. 相似文献
95.
Manuel Bollo Manent José Ramón Hernández Santana Ana Patricia Méndez Linares 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(2):219-228
The present work evaluates the state of the environment in Mexico based on indicators of the present status of the country’s natural resource management, social and economical conditions and anthropogenic modifications. The Mexican environment is interpreted as a spatially open system having a historical character that is essentially determined by the continual interaction between nature, society and economy. The landscape approach is followed, considering as units of territorial analysis each one of the 145 biophysical environmental units included in the national physiographic regionalization. The assessment of 16 indicators for each biophysical environmental unit was made considering their regional environmental integrity problems, the degree of disarticulation of their structure and function, and the alteration of their territorial structure, all of which determine whether or not they accomplish their environmental functions and achieve environmental stability. The classification of the state of the environment included 5 categories in 8 combinations represented in the map of the state of the environment in Mexico for the year 2008. The map shows that nearly 47.10% of the country’s surface has an environmental status ranging between unstable and critical, the problematic areas being mostly concentrated in the southeast and center of the national territory. 相似文献
96.
Kazi?RahmanEmail author Christophe?Etienne Ana?Gago-Silva Chetan?Maringanti Martin?Beniston Anthony?Lehmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4357-4369
Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km2. The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds. 相似文献
97.
B. Gudveig Baarli Mrio Cacho Carlos M. da Silva Markes E. Johnson Eduardo J. Mayoral Ana Santos 《Geological Journal》2014,49(1):90-106
Carbonate factories on insular oceanic islands in active volcanic settings are poorly explored. This case study illuminates marginal limestone deposits on a steep volcanic flank and their recurring interruption by deposits linked to volcaniclastic processes. Historically known as Ilhéu da Cal (Lime Island), Ilhéu de Baixo was separated from Porto Santo, in the Madeira Archipelago, during the course of the Quaternary. Here, extensive mines were tunnelled in the Miocene carbonate strata for the production of slaked lime. Approximately 10 000 m3 of calcarenite (−1 to 1ø) was removed by hand labour from the Blandy Brothers mine at the south end of the islet. Investigations of two stratigraphic sections at opposite ends of the mine reveal that the quarried material represents an incipient carbonate ramp developed from east to west and embanked against the flank of a volcanic island. A petrographic analysis of limestones from the mine shows that coralline red algae from crushed rhodoliths account for 51% of all identifiable bioclasts. This material was transported shoreward and deposited on the ramp between normal wave base and storm wave base at moderate depths. The mine's roof rocks are formed by Surtseyan deposits from a subsequent volcanic eruption. Volcaniclastic density flows also are a prevalent factor interrupting renewed carbonate deposition. These flows arrived downslope from the north and gradually steepened the debris apron westwards. Slope instability is further shown by a coral rudstone density flow that followed from growth of a coral reef dominated by Pocillopora madreporacea (Lamarck), partial reef collapse, and transport from a more easterly direction into a fore‐reef setting. The uppermost facies represents a soft bottom at moderate depths in a quiet, but shore‐proximal setting. Application of this study to a broader understanding of the relationship between carbonate and volcaniclastic deposition on oceanic islands emphasizes the susceptibility of carbonates to dilution and complete removal by density flows of various kinds, in contrast to the potential for preservation beneath less‐disruptive Surtseyan deposits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
98.
In the summer of 2008 the Prut river recorded a historical flow of 7140 m3/s at its entrance into Romania. This flow was the highest ever recorded of any Romanian river. The high value was generated by high amounts of rainfall recorded first on the territory of Ukraine and then in Romania. Unfortunately, there were some discrepancies between the data transmitted and intercepted from the Meteorology National Agency and Hydrology and Water Management National Agency. This is why the amount of precipitation which fell over the territory of Ukraine could not be monitored in time and punctually. Nor could the high flood wave moving rapidly from the upper basin to the lower basin. The high flow of the upper Prut caused the accumulation of an immense quantity of water in the Stanca–Costesti reservoir. Under the conditions of precipitation occurring in the lower river basin as well, the levels reached the flood quota and the reservoir reached the maximum accepted capacity, with 0·1% insurance. The release of supplementary water quantities from the reservoir would have produced catastrophic floods downstream. Keeping the water in the reservoir could have broken it and the flooding, through backwater eddies, or the riverbank settlements. In such a case, it would have produced the greatest tragedy in the hydrological history of Europe. The most significant damage was produced upstream of the barrage, next to the localities of Radauti Prut and Baranca–Hudesti, as well as in the area of the reservoir, as a result of the phenomenon known as ‘remuu’, or backwater eddies. The floods of the Prut river occurred between the end of July and the end of August. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
99.
100.
Xavier Ruiz Laureano Ramírez-Piscina Jaume Casademunt 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(1):135-140
We study the convective flow induced by residual accelerations in microgravity conditions for different geometric arrangements which are relevant to crystal growth experiments. We consider both constantand oscillating acceleration and focus mostly on the transient relaxation dynamics. Results are relevant to estimate impact of more realistic residual accelerations in crystal growth experiments. 相似文献