Global climate models as forcing for regional ocean modeling: a sensitivity study in the Iberian Basin (Eastern North Atlantic)

This work evaluates the performance of several global climate models (GCMs) as forcing of a regional ocean model configuration centered in the Iberian Basin. The study is divided in two parts. First, the output of nine GCMs is analyzed based on the fields needed to force the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System—ROMS). GCMs differ greatly between them and their performance depends on the field. In the second part, the two GCMs with the worst performances in both extremes of the ensemble are used as forcing for two ROMS simulations, with the purpose of assessing the range of uncertainty comprised in this set of GCMs. Two other ROMS runs are setup: one climatologically forced control run, and one forced with the average of all the nine GCMs—the ensemble mean. Results show that the tendency of overestimation/underestimation of the forcings is reflected in the modeled hydrography, both at the surface and deeper layers down to 500 m. Nevertheless, in terms of circulation, all four runs reproduce the Azores Current, as well as the coastal transition zone seasonality (winter poleward flow and summer upwelling-associated equatorward flow). The CGCMs output performance as forcing depends on the forcing variable: one performs well for one or more variables, but badly for others, and which field is well or badly reproduced varies for each CGCM. Therefore, there is not a single CGCM having the best forcing for all variables. Hence, our results indicate that the most adequate approach consists of using the ensemble mean as forcing rather than using an individual model. This is supported by the general low overall (i.e. for all forcing variables) errors of the ensemble mean regarding the control climatological dataset, and the good comparison of the ensemble-forced ROMS run with the control run.     

Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.     

Global warming vs. climate change, taxes vs. prices: Does word choice matter?

Does ??climate change?? seem like a less serious problem than ??global warming?? to Americans and Europeans? Does describing the costs of climate change mitigation in terms of ??higher taxes?? instead of ??higher prices?? reduce public support for such efforts? In an experiment embedded in an American national survey, respondents were randomly assigned to rate the seriousness of ??global warming,?? ??climate change,?? or ??global climate change.?? Contrary to predictions made by a leading political strategist, the full sample and political Independents perceived ??climate change?? and ??global warming?? to be equally serious. Among Republicans, ??climate change?? was perceived to be more serious than ??global warming,?? whereas the reverse was true among Democrats. A similar experiment embedded in a survey of residents of 31 European countries showed that ??global warming?? and ??climate change?? were perceived to be equally serious problems. And an experiment embedded in an American survey showed that describing the increased costs of climate change mitigation legislation via ??higher taxes?? instead of via ??higher prices?? did not reduce popular support for such legislation, also contradicting a political strategy memo. Thus, word choice may sometimes affect public perceptions of the climate change seriousness or support for mitigation policies, but a single choice of terminology may not influence all people the same way, making strategic language choices difficult to implement.     

Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change.     

Influence of multiple stressors on the auto-remediation processes occurring in salt marshes

Due to increasing global population, salt marshes have been subjected to multiple stressors such as increasing nutrient loadings and historical contamination. In order to better understand how does the salt marsh plants auto-remediation capacity (phytoaccumulation of metals) is affected by cultural eutrophication, an experiment was performed under controlled conditions. Plants were exposure to equal metal concentrations (Zn, Cu, and Ni - micronutrients, and Cd - class B metal) simulating historical contamination and three different concentrations of nitrogen (nitrate) simulating steps of cultural eutrophication. According to our study, under the tested concentrations, cultural eutrophication does not seem to affect Zn, Cu and Ni phytoremediation of H. portulacoides, but the ecosystem service of Cd phytoremediation seems to be promoted. Nevertheless, Cd high toxicity and bioaccumulation should be taken into account, as well as the vulnerability of salt marsh ecosystems, whose reduction will have drastic consequences to the ecosystem health.     

Ammonium,nitrate and phytoplankton interactions in a freshwater tidal estuarine zone: potential effects of cultural eutrophication

Nitrate and ammonium are the most important nitrogen sources for phytoplankton growth. Differential utilization of inorganic nitrogenous compounds by phytoplankton has been observed and may have significant impacts on primary productivity at local scales. We used enrichment experiments with natural phytoplankton populations from the freshwater tidal zone of the Guadiana estuary, a coastal ecosystem increasingly subjected to anthropogenic influences, to study the effects of nitrate and ammonium on N-consumption and phytoplankton growth. In addition, we used combined additions of nitrate and ammonium to understand the inhibitory effect of ammonium over nitrate uptake. Ammonium concentrations in the freshwater tidal reaches of the Guadiana estuary throughout the sampling period were too low to exert an inhibitory effect on nitrate uptake or a toxic effect on phytoplankton growth. Nitrate was clearly the main nitrogen source for phytoplankton at the study site. Overall, nitrate seemed to become limiting at concentrations lower than 20 μM and N-limitation was particularly significant during summer. A trend of decreasing nitrate uptake with increasing ammonium concentrations and uptake suggested an overall preference for ammonium. However, preference for ammonium was group-specific, and it was observed mainly in green algae and cyanobacteria. In fact, cyanobacteria relied only on ammonium as their N-source. On the contrary, diatoms preferred nitrate, and did not respond to ammonium additions. The increasing eutrophication in the Guadiana estuary and particularly increased inputs of nitrogen as ammonium due to urban waste effluents may result in a shift in phytoplankton community composition, towards a dominance of cyanobacteria and green algae.     

Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery

This work analyses the potential consequences of two tsunami scenarios and their impacts on an oil refinery located in Sicily. Two credible tsunamis originating in the Tyrrhenian Sea were selected based on historical data. The potential for damage and hazardous materials releases resulting from the tsunami impacts to a refinery was assessed. The results obtained by the JRC tsunami propagation and inundation code HyFlux2 indicate that in both scenarios there would be eighteen storage tanks (of 43 located within 400 m from the shoreline) at the refinery subject to flooding. Water flow velocities were found to be generally low, <1 m/s, except for a central section of the refinery near the shoreline where the water flow velocities reach 3?C4 m/s. These results indicate that any damage would most likely occur due to buoyancy loads particularly in the western part of the facility where inundation levels are higher and storage tanks are less protected. Potential damage caused by impact of floating debris may be a problem in the central area of the refinery near the shoreline due to high flow velocities (3?C4 m/s) in both tsunami scenarios. Small hazardous materials releases could occur due to breakage of connected pipes and flanges caused by floating off of almost empty storage tanks or other equipment. Salt water intrusion could affect electrical equipment, such as control panels, pumps, and motors that are not raised above the inundation level. We conclude that in the two tsunami scenarios analysed, the risk to nearby residents and neighbouring facilities from potential hazardous materials releases, fires or explosions triggered by the tsunamis is likely to be small. Nonetheless, recommendations are made on prevention measures to reduce the risk of tsunami-triggered accidents and to mitigate their consequences if they do occur. The results of this study are limited by the uncertainty in the input data and most importantly by the accuracy of the elevation data and the model resolution.     

The Stogovce landslide in SW Slovenia triggered during the September 2010 extreme rainfall event

From September 16 to September 20, 2010, a cold weather front went across Slovenia. A heavy 4-day rainfall totaling between 300 and 520 mm caused large floods and triggered numerous rainfall-induced landslides. The damage due to the floods and landslides is estimated over 250 million Euros. One of the largest landslides covering the area of approximately 15 ha was triggered on flysch bedrock, just below a limestone overthrust zone. The sliding material properties, the inclinations of the slope, and the water catchment area indicate that the landslide may transform into a fast moving debris flow. The necessary protective measures were taken to protect inhabitants and the infrastructure against the disaster. The Stogovce landslide is one of the numerous rainfall-induced landslides that have occurred in Slovenia on flysch bedrock in the last 10 years. It proves that landslide risk on flysch territory is increasing. Special program of monitoring and protective measures will have to be developed in near future to protect densely populated areas against landslides as a consequence of weather extremes.