Diurnal timing of warmer air under climate change affects magnitude,timing and duration of stream temperature change

Stream temperature will be subject to changes because of atmospheric warming in the future. We investigated the effects of the diurnal timing of air temperature changes – daytime warming versus nighttime warming – on stream temperature. Using the physically based model, Heat Source, we performed a sensitivity analysis of summer stream temperatures to three diurnal air temperature distributions of +4 °C mean air temperature: i) uniform increase over the whole day, ii) warmer daytime and iii) warmer nighttime. The stream temperature model was applied to a 37‐km section of the Middle Fork John Day River in northeastern Oregon, USA. The three diurnal air temperature distributions generated 7‐day average daily maximum stream temperatures increases of approximately +1.8 °C ± 0.1 °C at the downstream end of the study section. The three air temperature distributions, with the same daily mean, generated different ranges of stream temperatures, different 7‐day average daily maximum temperatures, different durations of stream temperature changes and different average daily temperatures in most parts of the reach. The stream temperature changes were out of phase with air temperature changes, and therefore in many places, the greatest daytime increase in stream temperature was caused by nighttime warming of air temperatures. Stream temperature changes tended to be more extreme and of longer duration when driven by air temperatures concentrated in either daytime or nighttime instead of uniformly distributed across the diurnal cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of photosynthetic picoeukaryote community structure along an extended Ellett Line transect in the northern North Atlantic reveals a dominance of novel prymnesiophyte and prasinophyte phylotypes

Photosynthetic picoeukaryotes (PPEs) of a size <3 ??m can contribute significantly to primary production. Here, PPE community structure was analysed along an extended Ellett Line transect, an area in the North Atlantic well studied by physical oceanographers but largely neglected in the field of microalgal ecology. Distribution patterns of specific PPE classes were determined using dot-blot hybridization analysis, while the taxonomic composition of specific PPE classes was revealed by phylogenetic analysis of plastid 16S rRNA gene sequences. In addition, we performed fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of seawater samples collected along the transect to provide a PCR-independent survey of class level PPE distribution patterns. We found the PPE community was dominated by members of the Prymnesiophyceae, Prasinophyceae and Mamiellophyceae. Interestingly, phylogenetic analysis revealed several novel Prymnesiophyceae and Prasinophyceae phylotypes (with only 85-96% identity to neighbouring sequences) within lineages for which cultured counterparts are unknown.     

The evolution of conservation rules and norms in the Maine lobster industry

Natural resources of all kinds have been overexploited by user groups who cannot or will not develop rules to constrain their own exploitive efforts. One notable exception is the Maine lobster industry, where an effective set of conservation laws has been developed due, in great part, to the strong support of the industry. In the early decades of the 20th century, however, the lobster industry was marked by widespread violations of the existing conservation laws and opposition to developing more. This article explores the way that the pirate ethic gave way to the conservation ethic in the 1930s. Our explorations in evolutionary game theory suggest that this change was produced by three factors: costs and benefits of defection from the conservation ethic; numbers of people accepting the conservation ethic quality rule; and events that shocked the system from one state to another. We argue that the shock to the system in the late 1920s and 1930s was caused by massive stock failure which changed the attitudes of many fishermen about the need for conservation. People began to report violations of the law, which made law enforcement more effective and quickly led to a cascade of fishermen abandoning the pirate ethic. In the late 1930s, increasing catches, in combination with a number of other social, technical, and economic factors continued the upward spiral.     

Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).     

Radiocarbon dating suitability of aquatic plant macrofossils

Paleolimnological and plant physiological literature were reviewed to determine which types of aquatic plant macrofossils are suitable for radiocarbon dating, with a particular focus on the uptake of reservoir-aged dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) by emergent plants. Submerged aquatic plants utilize large amounts of DIC and are clearly not suitable for radiocarbon dating. Under certain environmental conditions, some emergent aquatic plants can metabolize DIC in quantities large enough to introduce old-carbon error to radiocarbon dates acquired from their remains (plant macrofossils). Over 300 plant macrofossil images are included in the online resource Tool for Microscopic Identification; http://tmi.laccore.umn.edu) along with guidance on identification and suitability for radiocarbon dating.     

Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.     

Line-of-Sight Anisotropies in the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization 21-cm Power Spectrum

The line-of-sight direction in the redshifted 21-cm signal coming from the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization is quite unique in many ways compared to any other cosmological signal. Different unique effects, such as the evolution history of the signal, non-linear peculiar velocities of the matter etc. will imprint their signature along the line-of-sight axis of the observed signal. One of the major goals of the future SKA-LOW radio interferometer is to observe the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization through this 21-cm signal. It is thus important to understand how these various effects affect the signal for its actual detection and proper interpretation. For more than one and half decades, various groups in India have been actively trying to understand and quantify the different line-of-sight effects that are present in this signal through analytical models and simulations. In many ways the importance of this sub-field under 21-cm cosmology have been identified, highlighted and pushed forward by the Indian community. In this article, we briefly describe their contribution and implication of these effects in the context of the future surveys of the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization that will be conducted by the SKA-LOW.     

Model Tests and Field Experiments for Fragmentation Assessment During Ringhole Blasting in BG Panels

Experimental blasts were conducted in concrete blocks of known strengths to correlate field results in Blasting Gallery (BG) panels of GDK-10 Incline for improving fragmentation of coal to an optimum level so that blasted coal could easily be lifted totally by remote controlled LHDs and thereby mitigating the possibility of occurrence of spontaneous heating in BG districts before exhaustion of the panel. Various charge loading parameters and consequent breakage results were critically analyzed to arrive at a constructive conclusion, which could satisfactory improve the blast results.     

Factors influencing public beliefs regarding the cause of induced earthquakes

Natural Hazards - The central USA has experienced an increase in the frequency and magnitude of human-induced earthquakes. The earthquakes are caused by the deep-well injection of water produced...