CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

The Use of Environmental Features on Tactile Maps by Navigators Who Are Blind

Maps designed for and used by sighted audiences benefit from map symbol standardization and convention but, with very limited exception (most notably two European projects), neither standardization nor convention guides the design and use of symbols for tactile maps. In this project, we developed and field tested symbolization for and use of tactile street maps. The development process included consultation with the literature as well as with field experts (orientation and mobility teachers, Braillists, and teachers working with students who are blind or have low vision). Following development, we undertook a three-year field testing and validation phase, in which we conducted pilot testing and formal testing with travelers who are blind or have low vision. Research results reveal not only a discriminable and useful tactile symbol set but also environmental feature use by travelers who are blind or have low vision.     

Comparison of TRMM and water district rain rates over New Mexico

This paper compares monthly and seasonal rain rates derived from the Version 5 (V5) and Version 6 (V6) TRMM Precipitation Radar (TPR, TSDIS reference 2A25), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI, 2A12), TRMM Combined Instrument (TCI, 2B31), TRMM calibrated IR rain estimates (3B42) and TRMM merged gauge and satellite analysis (3B43) algorithms over New Mexico (NM) with rain gauge analyses provided by the New Mexico water districts (WD). The average rain rates over the NM region for 1998–2002 are 0.91mmd?1 for WD and 0.75, 1.38, 1.49, 1.27, and 1.07mmd?1 for V5 3B43, 3B42, TMI, PR and TCA; and 0.74, 1.38, 0.87 and 0.97 mm d?1 for V6 3B43, TMI, TPR and TCA, respectively. Comparison of V5 3B43 with WD rain rates and the daily TRMM mission index (TPR and TMI) suggests that the low bias of V5 3B43 for the wet months (summer to early fall) may be due to the non-inclusion of some rain events in the operational gauge analyses that are used in the production of V5 3B43. Correlation analyses show that the WD rain rates vary in phase, with higher correlation between neighboring WDs. High temporal correlations (>0.8) exist between WD and the combined algorithms (3B42, 3B43 and TCA for both V5 and V6) while satellite instrument algorithms (PR, TMI and TCI) are correlated best among themselves at the monthly scale. Paired t-tests of the monthly time series show that V5 3B42 and TMI are statistically different from the WD rain rates while no significant difference exists between WD and the other products. The agreements between the TRMM satellite and WD gauge estimates are best for the spring and fall and worst for winter and summer. The reduction in V6 TMI (?7.4%) and TPR (?31%) rain rates (compared to V5) results in better agreement between WD estimates and TMI in winter and TPR during summer.     

Tectonostratigraphic and geochronologic constraints on evolution of the northeast Paleotethys from the Songpan-Ganzi complex, central China

The Middle to Late Triassic deep-water deposits that form the Songpan-Ganzi complex (SGC) of central China comprise an estimated ~ 2.0 × 10⁶ km³ of detrital material that accumulated in the northeasternmost branch of the Paleotethys. A review of existing data demonstrates significant spatial and temporal variations in the stratigraphic and petrologic character of these turbidites. These variations are used to divide the complex into different depocenters: a northeastern depocenter (SGC-NE), a eastern–central depocenter (SGC-EC) and a northwestern depocenter (SGC-NW). Turbidite strata of the SGC-NE and SGC-EC zones of the Songpan-Ganzi complex are linked to the collision of the North China and South China blocks, whereas turbidite strata of the SGC-NW area are likely to be more closely affiliated with evolution of the Kunlun deformation belt. To test the validity of the Songpan-Ganzi stratigraphic framework and interpretations of its tectonostratigraphic evolution, sixty-eight U–Pb zircon ages were determined from five samples of felsic intrusive igneous rock, two samples from felsic plutonic rock of the adjacent Yidun arc complex, and one sample of volcanic rock interbedded with Middle Triassic turbidites of the SGC using the Sensitive High Resolution Ion Microprobe-Reverse Geometry (SHRIMP-RG). Together these data indicate primarily Late Triassic (~ 214–211 Ma) felsic magmatism in the SGC, with some indication of magmatic activity beginning as early as Middle Triassic (220 Ma). Zircon ages from the Yidun arc complex support Middle–Late Triassic magmatism from 225–215 Ma, prior to deformation of the SGC, suggesting deformation of the SGC was not related to subduction of the SGC substrate southwestward beneath the Yidun arc. Inherited Neoproterozoic (880–740 Ma) zircon ages found in two samples from the SGC-EC indicate either inheritance of zircon crystals from the surrounding SGC turbidite strata or possibly involvement of South China basement during crustal thickening and magma genesis.     

Estimating traveler populations at airport and cruise terminals for population distribution and dynamics

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.     

Electromagnetic properties of natural expansive soils under one-dimensional deformation

Macroscopic behavior of expansive soil is governed by surface forces rather than gravitational forces. These physicochemical surface forces can be investigated through two electromagnetic properties in response to an applied electromagnetic field as real (relative) permittivity, κ′, and effective (electrical) conductivity, σ. This paper presents the results of dielectric measurements on four natural expansive soils using 1–100 MHz electromagnetic waves in two different test setups. The equipment setup, calibration process and measurement limitations are evaluated, and the dielectric spectra, in terms of the dispersion of real permittivity/effective conductivity with frequency, are presented. A procedure is presented to quantify the thickness of a fully developed diffuse double layer (DDL). The influence of salt concentration on DDL, as well as the dielectric responses, is assessed. Two parameters of special physical meaning are defined in the article: ${\upkappa} _{{{\text{inf}}}}^{\prime }$ , representative of the dielectric response by sample mineralogy, microstructure and saturation ratio, and σ_dc, combining the roles assumed by both surface conduction and pore fluid conduction. Evaluation is attempted on their magnitudes at the optimum compaction state and evolutions at different one-dimensional deforming stages. Extensive analysis is performed on the roles of ${\upkappa} _{{{\text{inf}}}}^{\prime }$ and σ_dc on the hydration status and structural anisotropy of an oedometer sample.     

Prediction of hydrocarbon recovery from turbidite sandstones with linked-debrite facies: Numerical flow-simulation studies

A series of two-dimensional numerical flow simulations were carried out to investigate the production characteristics of a sheet sandstone bed with a linked-debrite interval. A deterministic geological model was used based on a two-dimensional representation of a bed from the Marnoso Arenacea Formation. The model was 60 km long and 1 m thick and contained three zones, arranged in a vertical facies arrangement typical of many linked-debrite beds: i) a lower, coarse-to-medium grained, clean turbidite sandstone interval; ii) a middle, muddy sandstone, debrite interval; iii) an upper, fine-grained, clean, laminated sandstone interval. Simulation involved only a 3-km long sector of the model, with one injector well and one production well, placed 1-km apart in the middle of the sector model. The simulated sector was moved progressively down the length of the bed, in 1-km steps, sampling different parts of the bed with different facies proportions. The petrophysical properties of the debrite interval were varied to produce different porosity–permeability cases. All other modelling parameters, including the upper and lower interval petrophysics, were kept constant. Results indicate that, in most cases, key production parameters such as cumulative oil production with time and water cut are proportional to the volume of movable oil between the wells. This relationship does not hold, however, for cases with relatively low values of debrite porosity (≤0.15) and permeability (k_h ≤ 100 mD) where the debrite interval accounts for more than 20% of the interwell volume. In these models, production efficiency declines systematically with reducing reservoir quality and increasing debrite percentage, resulting in relatively low oil production and early water breakthrough.     

Methodology for applying the Limits of Acceptable Change process to the management of recreational boating in the Balearic Islands, Spain (Western Mediterranean)

The objective of this study is to propose a simple methodological approach, based on the Limits of Acceptable Change process, to support the formulation of management measures for recreational boating in bays. Management measures have been determined using statistical and geospatial analyses of data of biophysical characteristics, use, and user perceptions in a bay on the island of Mallorca. The results suggest that the optimal use level of the study site is being surpassed and a range of potential management options is provided. This methodology is applicable to additional management scenarios where balancing social and environmental needs is necessary and should be implemented as part of a broader Integrated Coastal Zone Management framework.     

Wind-induced Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea

The Kuroshio flows north along the east coasts of the Philippines and Taiwan. Between these two land masses lies the Luzon Strait which connects the Pacific Ocean to the South China Sea. The Kuroshio usually flows north past this strait, but at times part or all of it flows west through the strait into the South China Sea forming a loop current. It has been suggested that the loop current forms when the northeast monsoon deflects the Kuroshio through the Luzon Strait. In this study, satellite-derived sea-surface temperature images are used to observe the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait region. Together with wind data from the region, these observations indicate a loop-current development process which is largely determined by an integrated supercritical wind stress parameter. The loop current grows when a four-day average of the local wind-stress component directed to the south exceeds 0.08 Nm^–2. When this average wind-stress component drops below the critical value, the Kuroshio returns to its northward path.