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41.
James D. Tamerius Erika K. Wise Christoper K. Uejio Amy L. McCoy Andrew C. Comrie 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):601-613
Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research
examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships
at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate.
Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales.
Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have
begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural
and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future
climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes
that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships. 相似文献
42.
Irgarol 1051 (2-methythiol-4-tert-butylamino-6-cyclopropylamino-s-triazine) is an algaecide commonly used in antifouling paints. It undergoes photodegradation which yields M1 (2-methylthio-4-tert-butylamino-6-amino-s-triazine) as its major and most stable degradant. Elevated levels of both Irgarol and M1 have been detected in coastal waters worldwide; however, ecotoxicity effects of M1 to various marine autotrophs such as cyanobacteria are still largely unknown. This study firstly examined and compared the 96 h toxicities of Irgarol and M1 to the cyanobacterium Chroococcus minor and two marine diatom species, Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira pseudonana. Our results suggested that Irgarol was consistently more toxic to all of the three species than M1 (96 h EC50 values: C. minor, 7.71 microug L(-1) Irgarol vs. > 200 microg L(-1) M1; S. costatum, 0.29 microg L(-1) Irgarol vs. 11.32 microg L(-1)M1; and T. pseudonana, 0.41 microg L(-1) Irgarol vs. 16.50 microg L(-1)M1). Secondly, we conducted a meta-analysis of currently available data on toxicities of Irgarol and M1 to both freshwater and marine primary producers based on species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). Interestingly, freshwater autotrophs are more sensitive to Irgarol than their marine counterparts. For marine autotrophs, microalgae are generally more sensitive to Irgarol than macroalgae and cyanobacteria. With very limited available data on M1 (i.e. five species), M1 might be less toxic than Irgarol; nonetheless this finding warrants further confirmation with additional data on other autotrophic species. 相似文献
43.
A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes 下载免费PDF全文
Amy E. East Andrew W. Stevens Andrew C. Ritchie Patrick L. Barnard Pamela Campbell‐Swarzenski Brian D. Collins Christopher H. Conaway 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(12):2562-2577
Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 相似文献
44.
O'Leary BC Smart JC Neale FC Hawkins JP Newman S Milman AC Roberts CM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(12):2642-2648
We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics. 相似文献
45.
Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub‐humid Ethiopian highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed 下载免费PDF全文
Seifu A. Tilahun Christian D. Guzman Assefa D. Zegeye Dessalegn C. Dagnew Amy S. Collick Birru Yitaferu Tammo S. Steenhuis 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1817-1828
Experimental research in the Ethiopian highlands found that saturation excess induced runoff and erosion are common in the sub‐humid conditions. Because most erosion simulation models applied in the highlands are based on infiltration excess, we, as an alternative, developed the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model, which can simulate water and sediment fluxes in landscapes with saturation excess runoff. The PED model has previously only been tested at the outlet of a watershed and not for distributed runoff and sediment concentration within the watershed. In this study, we compare the distributed storm runoff and sediment concentration of the PED model against collected data in the 95‐ha Debre Mawi watershed and three of its nested sub‐watersheds for the 2010 and 2011 rainy seasons. In the PED model framework, the hydrology of the watershed is divided between infiltrating and runoff zones, with erosion only taking place from two surface runoff zones. Daily storm runoff and sediment concentration values, ranging from 0.5 to over 30 mm and from 0.1 to 35 g l?1, respectively, were well simulated. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for the daily storm runoff for outlet and sub‐watersheds ranged from 0.66 to 0.82, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for daily sediment concentrations were greater than 0.78. Furthermore, the model uses realistic fractional areas for surface and subsurface flow contributions, for example between saturated areas (15%), degraded areas (30%) and permeable areas (55%) at the main outlet, while close similarity was found for the remaining hydrology and erosion parameter values. One exception occurred for the distinctly greater transport limited parameter at the actively gullying lower part of the watershed. The results suggest that the model based on saturation excess provides a good representation of the observed spatially distributed runoff and sediment concentrations within a watershed by modelling the bottom lands (as opposed to the uplands) as the dominant contributor of the runoff and sediment load. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
46.
An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods 下载免费PDF全文
Timothy D. Scheibe Ellyn M. Murphy Xingyuan Chen Amy K. Rice Kenneth C. Carroll Bruce J. Palmer Alexandre M. Tartakovsky Ilenia Battiato Brian D. Wood 《Ground water》2015,53(1):38-56
One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future. 相似文献
47.
48.
Sub-micron scale distributions of trace elements in zircon 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Amy E. Hofmann John W. Valley E. Bruce Watson Aaron J. Cavosie John M. Eiler 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,158(3):317-335
Sub-micron scale zoning of Ti concentrations and correlations between concentrations of Ti and other trace elements (P, Ce,
and Y) and cathodoluminescent (CL) banding is observed in natural zircons. Ion images were made using the Caltech Microanalysis
Center’s CAMECA NanoSIMS 50L with an O− primary beam focused to ~300 nm on the sample surface. The high spatial resolution of this technique allows for interrogation
of chemical variations at or below the scale of CL banding in natural zircons. Images produced in this manner display two
types of correlations among Ti, P, Ce, and Y (which appears to be a proxy for CL intensity): strong (correlation coefficients
>0.8) and subtle (correlation coefficients ~0.15–0.4). Strongly correlated images, which display Ti variations of ca. a factor
of 3 between adjacent CL bands and overall elevated trace element concentrations in CL-dark bands, were found within an oscillatory-zoned,
trace element enriched sector of a CL sector-zoned zircon. Three possible causes for such correlations include: temperature-dependent
equilibrium partitioning, trace element partitioning limited by diffusion in the host melt and surface-controlled, non-equilibrium
growth. Comparison of our data with the expected results of these processes suggests that: (1) Ti partitioning in zircon is
dependent upon non-equilibrium effects in addition to temperature and/or (2) the incorporation of elements that co-vary with
Ti in zircon (e.g., Y, P and Ce) is also temperature-dependent. Sub-micron scale, high-Ti regions are also found within Proterozoic
Adirondack and >4 Ga Jack Hills zircons as well as trace element enrichments (including Ti) along cracks within Jack Hills
zircons. 相似文献
49.
Amy E. Draut Patrick E. Hart Thomas D. Lorenson Holly F. Ryan Florence L. Wong Ray W. Sliter James E. Conrad 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2009,30(3):193-206
Small, steep, uplifting coastal watersheds are prolific sediment producers that contribute significantly to the global marine
sediment budget. This study illustrates how sedimentation evolves in one such system where the continental shelf is largely
sediment-starved, with most terrestrial sediment bypassing the shelf in favor of deposition in deeper basins. The Santa Barbara–Ventura
coast of southern California, USA, is considered a classic area for the study of active tectonics and of Tertiary and Quaternary
climatic evolution, interpretations of which depend upon an understanding of sedimentation patterns. High-resolution seismic-reflection
data over >570 km2 of this shelf show that sediment production is concentrated in a few drainage basins, with the Ventura and Santa Clara River
deltas containing most of the upper Pleistocene to Holocene sediment on the shelf. Away from those deltas, the major factor
controlling shelf sedimentation is the interaction of wave energy with coastline geometry. Depocenters containing sediment
5–20 m thick exist opposite broad coastal embayments, whereas relict material (bedrock below a regional unconformity) is exposed
at the sea floor in areas of the shelf opposite coastal headlands. Locally, natural hydrocarbon seeps interact with sediment
deposition either to produce elevated tar-and-sediment mounds or as gas plumes that hinder sediment settling. As much as 80%
of fluvial sediment delivered by the Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers is transported off the shelf (some into the Santa Barbara
Basin and some into the Santa Monica Basin via Hueneme Canyon), leaving a shelf with relatively little recent sediment accumulation.
Understanding factors that control large-scale sediment dispersal along a rapidly uplifting coast that produces substantial
quantities of sediment has implications for interpreting the ancient stratigraphic record of active and transform continental
margins, and for inferring the distribution of hydrocarbon resources in relict shelf deposits. 相似文献
50.