Water quality variation and clam growth: Is pH really a non-issue in estuaries?

A tandem deployment system was used to critically evaluate relationships between important water chemistry parameters (pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen) and biotic performance based on clam growth. The effects of environmental conditions on growth of juvenile clams,Mercenaria mercenaria, were determined after 7-day field deployments in cages at reference sites from 1998 to 2000. Continuous measurements of the overlying water chemistry parameters were monitored by deploying an in situ water quality instrument (Hydrolab Datasonde) at the same time. While salinity was identified as an important determinant of clam growth over wide salinity ranges (10–35‰), pH was also found to be a very important parameter, especially in low-salinity regimes (<25‰). Average pH measurements ranged from 7.2 to 7.8; minimal pHs ranged from 6.9 to 7.6. The results indicated that when average pH levels fell below 7.5 or minimum pH levels fell below 7.2, growth rates were <50% that of clams deployed under higher pH conditions. Estuarine systems are generally perceived as being well-buffered so pH is frequently assumed to be unimportant, but our results suggest that pH levels can decline in estuarine systems to levels that can adversely affect biological responses. The potential impacts on biological resources of even moderate decreases in pH, particularly in systems that naturally tend to have lower pH conditions, may be more important than previously realized.     

Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.     

Phytoplankton abundance and contributions to suspended particulate matter in the Ohio,Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers

Main channel habitats of the Ohio, Missouri, and Upper Mississippi Rivers were surveyed during the summers of 2004, 2005 and 2006 using a probability-based sampling design to characterize inter-annual and inter-river variation in suspended chlorophyll a (CHLa) and related variables. Large (fivefold) differences in CHLa were observed with highest concentrations in the Upper Mississippi (32.3 ± 1.8 μg L⁻¹), intermediate values in the Missouri (19.7 ± 1.1 μg L⁻¹) and lowest concentrations in the Ohio (6.8 ± 0.5 μg L⁻¹). Inter-annual variation was small in comparison to inter-river differences suggesting that basin-specific factors exert greater control over river-wide CHLa than regional-scale processes influencing climate and discharge. The rivers were characterized by variable but generally low light conditions as indicated by depth-averaged underwater irradiance <4 E m⁻² day⁻¹ and high ratios of channel depth to euphotic depth (>3). Despite poor light conditions, regression analyses revealed that TP was the best single predictor of CHLa (R ² = 0.40), though models incorporating both light and TP performed better (R ² = 0.60). Light and nutrient conditions varied widely within rivers and were inversely related, suggesting that riverine phytoplankton may experience shifts in resource limitation during transport. Inferred grazing and sedimentation losses were large yet CHLa concentrations did not decline downriver indicating that growth and loss processes were closely coupled. The contribution by algae to suspended particulate organic matter in these rivers (mean = 41%) was similar to that of lakes (39%) but lower relative to reservoirs (61%).     

Caribbean hydrological variability during the Holocene as reconstructed from crater lakes on the island of Grenada

Contemporary precipitation patterns in the Caribbean region are spatially variable, and the small number of Holocene paleoclimatic records may not adequately capture patterns of variation in the past. The hydrological history of Grenada was inferred from paleolimnological analyses of sediment cores from two crater lakes on the island. The basins were formed by volcanic activity some time during the Last Termination, but were dry between ca. 13 000 and ca. 7200 cal. a BP. After filling, the lakes were initially very shallow, and sedimentation was interrupted by a hiatus ca. 6300–5500 cal. a BP, followed by deposition of a thick tephra in both sites. After 5500 cal. a BP, lake level shows considerable multi‐centennial variability, superimposed upon a long‐term trend of generally higher lake level after 3200 cal. a BP. The pattern of lake‐level variation in Grenada shows some similarity with other Caribbean paleoclimatic records in terms of the timing of transitions, but differs from several classic studies in the sign of inferred precipitation change. The differences among records may reflect spatially variable precipitation patterns in the past in response to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and to sea surface temperature influences on the trade winds and Caribbean low‐level jet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene to Holocene sedimentation and hydrocarbon seeps on the continental shelf of a steep,tectonically active margin,southern California,USA

Small, steep, uplifting coastal watersheds are prolific sediment producers that contribute significantly to the global marine sediment budget. This study illustrates how sedimentation evolves in one such system where the continental shelf is largely sediment-starved, with most terrestrial sediment bypassing the shelf in favor of deposition in deeper basins. The Santa Barbara–Ventura coast of southern California, USA, is considered a classic area for the study of active tectonics and of Tertiary and Quaternary climatic evolution, interpretations of which depend upon an understanding of sedimentation patterns. High-resolution seismic-reflection data over >570 km² of this shelf show that sediment production is concentrated in a few drainage basins, with the Ventura and Santa Clara River deltas containing most of the upper Pleistocene to Holocene sediment on the shelf. Away from those deltas, the major factor controlling shelf sedimentation is the interaction of wave energy with coastline geometry. Depocenters containing sediment 5–20 m thick exist opposite broad coastal embayments, whereas relict material (bedrock below a regional unconformity) is exposed at the sea floor in areas of the shelf opposite coastal headlands. Locally, natural hydrocarbon seeps interact with sediment deposition either to produce elevated tar-and-sediment mounds or as gas plumes that hinder sediment settling. As much as 80% of fluvial sediment delivered by the Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers is transported off the shelf (some into the Santa Barbara Basin and some into the Santa Monica Basin via Hueneme Canyon), leaving a shelf with relatively little recent sediment accumulation. Understanding factors that control large-scale sediment dispersal along a rapidly uplifting coast that produces substantial quantities of sediment has implications for interpreting the ancient stratigraphic record of active and transform continental margins, and for inferring the distribution of hydrocarbon resources in relict shelf deposits.     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

Ice grain size and the rheology of the martian polar deposits

The history and dynamics of the martian polar deposits (MPD), the largest known water reservoirs on Mars, are of great interest, but estimates of ice grain size are required before detailed modeling can be performed. We clarify the microphysical processes that may control grain size in the MPD. If the MPD are ∼2% dust by mass, the maximum ice grain size is ∼1 mm due to grain boundary pinning by silicate microparticles. Relatively dusty layers in the MPD will have smaller grain sizes. If MPD ice has a very low impurity content and has experienced a significant amount of strain, grains may reach a steady state size of ∼1.5 to 3 mm due to dynamic recrystallization, wherein a steady state grain size is maintained due to the balance of grain growth and destruction during flow. If the near-bed ice in the MPD is warmed close to its melting point and has been extensively sheared, grain sizes at its base may be between 10 and 40 mm, by analogy with warm, dirty, near-bed ice in terrestrial ice sheets.