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51.
Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi Jeoung Seok Yoon Oliver Heidbach Arno Zang Gottfried Grünthal 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):671-680
The M w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models. 相似文献
52.
Mohammad Hadi Moeini Amir Etemad-Shahidi Vahid Chegini Iraj Rahmani 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(5):785-797
The main goal of this study is to develop an efficient approach for the assimilation of the hindcasted wave parameters in
the Persian Gulf. Hence, the third generation SWAN model was employed for wave modeling forced by the 6-h ECMWF wind data
with a resolution of 0.5°. In situ wave measurements at two stations were utilized to evaluate the assimilation approaches.
It was found that since the model errors are not the same for wave height and period, adaptation of model parameter does not
result in simultaneous and comprehensive improvement of them. Therefore, an approach based on the error prediction and updating
of output variables was employed to modify wave height and period. In this approach, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were
used to estimate the deviations between the simulated and measured wave parameters. The results showed that updating of output
variables leads to significant improvement in a wide range of the predicted wave characteristics. It was revealed that the
best input parameters for error prediction networks are mean wind speed, mean wind direction, wind duration, and the wave
parameters. In addition, combination of the ANN estimated error with numerically modeled wave parameters leads to further
improvement in the predicted wave parameters in contrast to direct estimation of the parameters by ANN. 相似文献
53.
Estimation of enterococci input from bathers and animals on a recreational beach using camera images
John D. Wang Helena M. Solo-Gabriele Amir M. Abdelzaher Lora E. Fleming 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(8):1270-6769
Enterococci, are used nationwide as a water quality indicator of marine recreational beaches. Prior research has demonstrated that enterococci inputs to the study beach site (located in Miami, FL) are dominated by non-point sources (including humans and animals). We have estimated their respective source functions by developing a counting methodology for individuals to better understand their non-point source load impacts. The method utilizes camera images of the beach taken at regular time intervals to determine the number of people and animal visitors. The developed method translates raw image counts for week days and weekend days into daily and monthly visitation rates. Enterococci source functions were computed from the observed number of unique individuals for average days of each month of the year, and from average load contributions for humans and for animals. Results indicate that dogs represent the larger source of enterococci relative to humans and birds. 相似文献
54.
Mixed estimation methods for Halphen distributions with applications in extreme hydrologic events 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Fateh Chebana Salaheddine El Adlouni Bernard Bobée 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(3):359-376
The Halphen family of distributions is a flexible and complete system to fit sets of observations independent and identically
distributed. Recently, it is shown that this family of distributions represents a potential alternative to the generalized
extreme value distributions to model extreme hydrological events. The existence of jointly sufficient statistics for parameter
estimation leads to optimality of the method of maximum likelihood (ML). Nevertheless, the ML method requires numerical approximations
leading to less accurate values. However, estimators by the method of moments (MM) are explicit and their computation is fast.
Even though MM method leads to good results, it is not optimal. In order to combine the advantages of the ML (optimality)
and MM (efficiency and fast computations), two new mixed methods were proposed in this paper. One of the two methods is direct
and the other is iterative, denoted respectively direct mixed method (MMD) and iterative mixed method (MMI). An overall comparison
of the four estimation methods (MM, ML, MMD and MMI) was performed using Monte Carlo simulations regarding the three Halphen
distributions. Generally, the MMI method can be considered for the three Halphen distributions since it is recommended for
a majority of cases encountered in hydrology. The principal idea of the mixed methods MMD and MMI could be generalized for
other distributions with complicated density functions. 相似文献
55.
Shilpa Pal Amir M. Kaynia Rajinder K. Bhasin D. K. Paul 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2012,45(2):205-215
Stability analysis of Surabhi landslide in the Dehradun and Tehri districts of Uttaranchal located in Mussoorie, India, has
been simulated numerically using the distinct element method focusing on the weak zones (fracture). This is an active landslide
on the main road toward the town centre, which was triggered after rainfall in July–August 1998. Understanding the behaviour
of this landslide will be helpful for planning and implementing mitigation measures. The first stage of the study includes
the total area of the landslide. The area identified as the zone of detachment is considered the most vulnerable part of the
landslide. Ingress of water and increased pore pressures result in reduced mobilized effective frictional resistance, causing
the top layer of the zone of detachment to start moving. The corresponding total volume of rock mass that is potentially unstable
is estimated to 11.58 million m3. The second stage of this study includes a 2D model focussing only on the zone of detachment. The result of the analyses
including both static and dynamic loading indicates that most of the total displacement observed in the slide model is due
to the zone of detachment. The discontinuum modelling in the present study gives reasonable agreement with actual observations
and has improved understanding of the stability of the slide slope. 相似文献
56.
Seyyed Mohammad Mousavi Amir Hossein Alavi Ali Mollahasani Amir Hossein Gandomi 《Engineering Geology》2011,123(4):324
In this study, new empirical equations were developed to predict the soil deformation moduli utilizing a hybrid method coupling genetic programming and simulated annealing, called GP/SA. The proposed models relate secant (Es), unloading (Eu) and reloading (Er) moduli obtained from plate load–settlement curves to the basic soil physical properties. Several models with different combinations of the influencing parameters were developed and checked to select the best GP/SA models. The database used for developing the models was established upon a series of plate load tests (PLT) conducted on different soil types at various depths. The validity of the models was tested using parts of the test results that were not included in the analysis. The validation of the models was further verified using several statistical criteria. A traditional GP analysis was performed to benchmark the GP/SA models. The contributions of the parameters affecting Es, Eu and Er were analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. The proposed models are able to estimate the soil deformation moduli with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The Es prediction model has a remarkably better performance than the models developed for predicting Eu and Er. The simplified formulations for Es, Eu and Er provide significantly better results than the GP-based models and empirical models found in the literature. 相似文献
57.
58.
An integral transform, called in this study as Sundararajan transform, has been used to estimate the parameters of vertical magnetic effect of a fault structure. It differs from the well-known Hilbert transform in the property of phase shift as it yields a phase shift of 270° unlike the Hilbert transform, which is a 90° phase shifter. Other properties of the Sundararajan transform remain almost the same as the Hilbert transform. The transform has been tested on synthetic data and a field example of Lachlan Foldbelts, New South Wales, Australia. The results of this technique agree with the one published in the literature. The noise analysis has been examined and showed that it still provides acceptable results. The application of this transform to geophysical interpretation illustrates its potentiality, and it may be widely applied in various disciplines mainly in the field of communication engineering, signal, and image processing. An interesting property of this transform is that two successive transforms of a function return it to its original form unlike the Hilbert transform, which returns it to the negative of the original form. The procedure discussed may be automated. 相似文献
59.
Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are important vectors of neoliberal globalization in India. Despite facing widespread resistance against the proposed land acquisition for these zones, they are still being promoted across the country. We argue that the wealth redistribution to the country's elites and the fractured resistance movements enable neoliberalism and its practices to grow in the countryside. Using a private sector SEZ in Gurgaon as a case study, this article explores how special economic zoning, as a neoliberal policy, has been implicated in the spatialized production of poverty. We also show that the main actors who promote neoliberalism in India (the state and the large‐scale urban private sector) have found a seemingly unlikely ally in rural India in the form of farmers with large landholdings, rural elites who are willing to let go of their land under certain conditions. The data for the article was collected in India in 2009–10. 相似文献
60.
S. Amir Reza Beyabanaki Roozbeh Geraili Mikola Kianoosh Hatami 《Computers and Geotechnics》2008,35(3):346-356
This paper presents a new contact calculating algorithm for contacts between two polyhedra with planar boundaries in the three-dimensional discontinuous deformation analysis (3-D DDA). In this algorithm, all six type contacts in 3-D (vertex-to-face, vertex-to-edge, vertex-to-vertex, face-to-face, edge-to-edge, and edge-to-face) are simply transformed into the form of point-to-face contacts. The presented algorithm is a simple and efficient method and it can be easily coded into a computer program. In this paper, formulations of normal contact, shear contact and frictional force submatrices based on the new method are derived and the algorithm has been programmed in VC++. Examples are provided to demonstrate the new contact rule between two blocks. 相似文献