Analysis of pervasive precipitation in similar gradient areas of Iran

Precipitation is a major climatic element with high spatial variations. Temporal and spatial variations may differ in large and small scales. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to study areas with similar gradients in terms of precipitation patterns in order to shed light on the complexities of precipitation variations. In the present study, attempts were made to identify areas with similar gradients experiencing the same precipitation pattern over a 50-year period (1964–2013). To this end, data were collected from synoptic stations in Iran in two phases (i.e., 1434 stations in the first phase and 673 stations in the second one). Alexanderson’s technique was adopted to examine sudden changes in precipitation patterns. The results showed that five regions with similar gradients could be identified in terms of precipitation patterns: negative and high variations, negative and moderate variations, positive and high variations, positive and moderate variations, and little or no variations. The distribution of such regions indicated that the regions with positive trends experienced more annual variations and had further spatial distribution. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the regions with negative precipitation patterns experienced more sudden changes in comparison with those with positive precipitation patterns. Additionally, more variations were observed in the precipitation patterns in recent years.     

Experimental study of headcut erosion in cohesive soils under different consolidation types and hydraulic parameters

Headcut is a change in stream channel elevation, where there is concentrated flow. Most of the past studies focus on non-cohesive soils, although many problems on the streams occur because of cohesive beds and banks. In this study, eight samples of cohesive soils, with a different composition of silt and clay, for different waterfall heights and flow velocity under long- and short-term natural consolidation conditions were tested. In one of the tests, a sand layer was settled on the headcut bed to investigate its impact on headcut erosion. By increasing clay content, the headcut will remain vertical as it moves backward. Result showed that the effect of clay content reduction was more noticeable under the long-term consolidation condition. In general, the effect of clay percentage variation on the measured parameters is much higher than the effects of waterfall height or flow velocity, and the effect of consolidation type and adding a sand layer on the measured values is much higher than the effect of clay percentage variation on the waterfall height and flow velocity.     

The effect of different meteorological parameters on the temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration

Temporal changes of meteorological variables can affect reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The goal of the present research is to analyze the changes of ET₀ and identify the impact of effective meteorological parameters to the changes of ET₀. For this purpose, daily meteorological data recorded in 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960–2014 were used. The annual and seasonal values of ET₀ were calculated by the recorded data. To calculate ET₀, FAO56 Penman–Monteith method (standard method) was used. The annual and seasonal trends of ET₀ and its eight effective parameters were analyzed. Then the contributions of effective parameters changes on ET₀ were determined. To analyze ET₀ trend at annual and seasonal scales, two common methods, Spearman’s Rho and Mann–Kendall tests, were used. The R ² = 0.99 showed that the results of the mentioned methods were similar and on the basis of T-statistic <0.057, their difference was not significant (95% confidence level). Therefore, only one method’s results (Spearman’s Rho) were reported. On the basis of Spearman’s Rho results, the annual and seasonal values of ET₀ had negative trend in most of arid and semi-arid stations while the trend of this parameter was positive in humid and very humid stations. At annual and seasonal scales, decreasing in wind speed (W), temperature (T), sunshine hours (n), minimum temperature (TN), dew point temperature (TD), maximum temperature (TX), saturation vapor pressure deficit (SVPD) and solar radiation (RS) was observed in 58, 54, 39, 43, 56, 65, 65 and 37% studied stations, respectively. In many scales, the results showed that TX and W were the most effective meteorological variables on ET₀ changes and then SVPD was located in second step in arid and semi-arid stations. In humid and very humid stations, W was the first effective parameter at all scales, except autumn.     

Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Wave data assimilation using a hybrid approach in the Persian Gulf

The main goal of this study is to develop an efficient approach for the assimilation of the hindcasted wave parameters in the Persian Gulf. Hence, the third generation SWAN model was employed for wave modeling forced by the 6-h ECMWF wind data with a resolution of 0.5°. In situ wave measurements at two stations were utilized to evaluate the assimilation approaches. It was found that since the model errors are not the same for wave height and period, adaptation of model parameter does not result in simultaneous and comprehensive improvement of them. Therefore, an approach based on the error prediction and updating of output variables was employed to modify wave height and period. In this approach, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to estimate the deviations between the simulated and measured wave parameters. The results showed that updating of output variables leads to significant improvement in a wide range of the predicted wave characteristics. It was revealed that the best input parameters for error prediction networks are mean wind speed, mean wind direction, wind duration, and the wave parameters. In addition, combination of the ANN estimated error with numerically modeled wave parameters leads to further improvement in the predicted wave parameters in contrast to direct estimation of the parameters by ANN.     

Sensitive Ion‐Flotation Separation of Ag(I) Traces Using 2‐(2‐Methoxyphenyl)benzimidazole before Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometric Determination in Water

A sensitive, reliable, and environmentally friendly method for simple separation and preconcentration of Ag(I) traces in aqueous samples is presented prior to their flame atomic absorption spectrometric determinations. At pH 7.0, Ag(I) was separated with 2‐(2‐methoxyphenyl)benzimidazole (MPBI) as a new complexing agent and floated after adding sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) as a foaming reagent. The floated layer was then dissolved in proper amount of concentrated nitric acid in methanol and introduced to the flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS). The effects of pH, concentration of MPBI, type and amount of surfactant as the floating agent, type and amount of eluting agent, and influence of foreign ions on the recovery of the analyte ion were investigated. Also, using a nonlinear curve fitting method, the formation constant of 1.62 × 10⁶ was obtained for Ag(I)–MPBI complex. The analytical curve was linear in the range of 1.8 × 10^?7–1.7 × 10^?6 mol/L for determination of Ag(I). The relative standard deviation (RSD; N = 10) corresponding to 0.7 × 10^?6 mol/L of Ag(I), the limit of detection (10 blanks), and the enrichment factor were obtained as 1.7%, 2.9 × 10^?8 mol/L, and 43.0, respectively. The proposed procedure was then applied successfully for determination of silver ions in different water samples.     

Simultaneous estimation of shape factor and depth of subsurface cavities from residual gravity anomalies using feed-forward back-propagation neural networks

We develop a new method of using feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP) neural networks to simultaneously estimate shape factor and depth of gravity anomalies. The advantages compared to neural network methods are the following: no pre-assumptions are made on source shape, the FFBP neural network estimates both depth and shape factor of source bodies and, once trained, works well for any new data in the training space, without repeating the initial calculations.     

Estimation of enterococci input from bathers and animals on a recreational beach using camera images

Enterococci, are used nationwide as a water quality indicator of marine recreational beaches. Prior research has demonstrated that enterococci inputs to the study beach site (located in Miami, FL) are dominated by non-point sources (including humans and animals). We have estimated their respective source functions by developing a counting methodology for individuals to better understand their non-point source load impacts. The method utilizes camera images of the beach taken at regular time intervals to determine the number of people and animal visitors. The developed method translates raw image counts for week days and weekend days into daily and monthly visitation rates. Enterococci source functions were computed from the observed number of unique individuals for average days of each month of the year, and from average load contributions for humans and for animals. Results indicate that dogs represent the larger source of enterococci relative to humans and birds.     

Middle Jurassic palynomorphs of the Dalichai Formation, central Alborz Ranges, northeastern Iran: Paleoecological inferences

Palynological data are used to draw paleoecological inferences for the Dalichai Formation,northeast of Semnan,northeastern Iran.All samples examined yield well-preserved,diverse palynofloras consisting predominantly of miospores;dinoflagellate cysts,foraminiferal test linings,and fungal spores occur as minor constituents.Fifty-four species of spores(37 genera),18species of pollen(9 genera),and 16 species of dinoflagellate cysts(13 genera)are recognized.Co-occurrence of such miospore species with known vertical ranges as Klukisporites variegatus,Sellaspora asperata,Murospora florida,and Concavissimisporites verrucosus suggests a Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian)age for the host strata,thus corroborating the available paleozoological evidence.Such spore species as Klukisporites,Cyathidites,and Dictyophyllidites known to have been produced by Pterophyta dominate the palynofloras.Thus the contemporaneous coastal vegetation was characterized by predominance of Pterophyta whereas representatives of Ginkgophyta,Pteridospermophyta,Lycophyta,Coniferophyta,and Bryophyta were rarely represented.This reconstruction implies that a moist,warm climate prevailed in northeastern Iran during the Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian).This is confirmed by occurrence of fungal spores accompanied by such warm water dinoflagellate cysts as Mendicodinium groenlandicum,Pareodinia ceratophora,and Gonyaulacysta jurassica.Abundance of Amorphous Organic Matter(AOM)signifies a shallow,low-energy,dysoxic-anoxic depositional site for the host strata.Furthermore,the ratio of AOM to marine palynomorphs as well as abundance of blade-shaped to eqiudimensional opaque palynomacerals could indicate low sedimentation rate in a shallow,low-oxygenated marine environment.Additionally,occurrence of chorate dinoflagellate cysts(e.g.,Adnatosphaeridium caulleryi)and acritarchs bearing relatively long processes(e.g.,Micrhystridium)possibly suggests deepening upward in the study section.