Use of the population potential model for predicting the growth of cities in a region (with reference to Moscow Oblast)

"A modification of the population potential model is used to analyze the structure of the potential of population for cities of the Moscow region, to develop a relationship between population potential and city size, and to use this procedure to forecast future population change in Moscow Oblast cities." Cities in the region with a population of 50,000 or more at the censuses of 1959, 1970, and 1979 are included.     

Optical observations of the interstellar absorption lines towards the M8 Nebula

High resolution optical observations (FWHM ～ 10–13 km s^?1) of the I-S gas towards the early-type stars HD 164 794, HD 164816, and HD 165052 in the M8 Nebula are presented. A high velocity componentV _LSR=?26 km s^?1 has been detected in all 3 stars' spectra. A line profile fitting analysis has been carried out on the observed Caii and Nai absorption lines to determine cloud component column densities and to subsequently determine the physical and chemical conditions of the associated I-S gas.     

The Hα-cyclonic spectra of a flare loop system on 1981 April 27

The data such as the H-spectrum-spectroheliographic (SSHG) observations, the H-chromospheric observations, etc., of a flare loop prominence which occurred on the western solar limb on 1981 April 27 have been obtained at Yunnan Observatory. The distribution of the internal motions and the macroscopical motion of the flare loop prominence with time and space in the course of its eruption and ascension is derived from the comprehensive analysis of the data. The possible physical pictures and the instability of the motions of the loop are inferred and discussed.     

Methane‐related microbial gypsum calcitization in stromatolites of a marine evaporative setting (Münder Formation,Upper Jurassic,Hils Syncline,north Germany)

Fossil stromatolites may reveal information about their hydrochemical palaeoenvironment, provided that assignment to a specific microbial community and a corresponding biogeochemical mechanism of formation can be made. Tithonian stromatolites of the Münder Formation at Thüste, north Germany, have traditionally been considered as formed by intertidal cyanobacterial communities. However, thin sections of the stromatolites show elongated angular traces of former gypsum crystals in a dense arrangement, but no algal or cyanobacterial filament traces. Moreover, high Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ contents, oxygen‐isotope and sulphur‐isotope ratios of carbonate‐bound sulphates, and sulphurized hydrocarbon biomarkers of the stromatolitic carbonate indicate that CaCO₃ precipitation occurred near the oxic–anoxic interface as a result of intensive bacterial sulphur cycling rather than photosynthetic activity. Furthermore, anaerobic oxidation of methane by Archaea may have driven CaCO₃ precipitation in deeper parts of the biofilm community, as reflected by high concentrations of squalane with a strongly negative δ¹³C in conjunction with evaporite pseudomorphs showing extremely low δ¹³C_Carb ratios. Consequently, the Thüste stromatolites are now interpreted as having initially formed by gypsum impregnation of biofilms. Subsequently, early Mg‐calcitic calcitization within the biofilms occurred because of combined bacterial iron, manganese and sulphate reduction, with an increasing contribution of anaerobic oxidation of methane with depth. This model plausibly explains the prominent preservation of signals derived from oxygen‐independent metabolic pathways, whereas virtually no geochemical record exists for an aerobic community that may, nevertheless, have prevailed at the stromatolite surface. Photic‐zone stromatolites with a prominent signal of anaerobic oxidation of methane may be common in, and indicative of, oxygen‐depleted sulphate‐bearing environments with high rates of methane production, conditions that possibly were fulfilled at the Archaean to Proterozoic transition.     

Development of the mixed conifer forest in northern New Mexico and its relationship to Holocene environmental change

Chihuahueños Bog (2925 m) in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico contains one of the few records of late-glacial and postglacial development of the mixed conifer forest in southwestern North America. The Chihuahueños Bog record extends to over 15,000 cal yr BP. An Artemisia steppe, then an open Picea woodland grew around a small pond until ca. 11,700 cal yr BP when Pinus ponderosa became established. C/N ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values indicate both terrestrial and aquatic organic matter was incorporated into the sediment. Higher percentages of aquatic algae and elevated C/N ratios indicate higher lake levels at the opening of the Holocene, but a wetland developed subsequently as climate warmed. From ca. 8500 to 6400 cal yr BP the pond desiccated in what must have been the driest period of the Holocene there. C/N ratios declined to their lowest Holocene levels, indicating intense decomposition in the sediment. Wetter conditions returned after 6400 cal yr BP, with conversion of the site to a sedge bog as groundwater levels rose. Higher charcoal influx rates after 6400 cal yr BP probably result from greater biomass production rates. Only minor shifts in the overstory species occurred during the Holocene, suggesting that mixed conifer forest dominated throughout the record.     

U–Pb SHRIMP zircon geochronology and T–t–d history of the Kampa Dome, southern Tibet

Structural, petrographic and geochronologic studies of the Kampa Dome provide insights into the tectonothermal evolution of orogenic crust exposed in the North Himalayan gneiss domes of southern Tibet. U–Pb ion microprobe dating of zircons from granite gneiss exposed at the deepest levels within the dome yields concordia ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age populations of 506 ± 3 Ma and 527 ± 6 Ma, with no evidence of new zircon growth during Himalayan orogenesis. However, the granite contains penetrative deformation fabrics that are also preserved in the overlying Paleozoic strata, implying that the Kampa granite is a Cambrian pluton that was strongly deformed and metamorphosed during Himalayan orogenesis. Zircons from deformed leucogranite sills that cross-cut Paleozoic metasedimentary rocks yield concordant Cambrian ages from oscillatory zoned cores and discordant ages ranging from ca. 491–32 Ma in metamict grains. Since these leucogranites clearly post-date the metasedimentary rocks they intrude, the zircons are interpreted as xenocrysts that are probably derived from the Kampa granite. The Kampa Dome formed via a series of progressive orogenic events including regional ~ N–S contraction and related crustal thickening (D₁), predominately top-to-N ductile shearing and crustal extension (D₂), top-to-N brittle–ductile faulting and related folding on the north limb of the dome, localized top-to-S faulting on the southern limb of the dome, and crustal doming (D₃), and continued N–S contraction, E–W extension and doming (D₄). Structural and geochronologic variability amongst adjacent North Himalayan gneiss domes may reflect changes in the magnitude of crustal exhumation along the North Himalayan antiform, possibly relating to differences in the mid-crustal geometry of the exhuming fault systems.     

Modeling on adsorption–desorption of trace metals to suspended particle matter in the Changjiang Estuary

The uptake and release of trace metals (Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd, and Co) in estuaries are studied using river and sea end-member waters and suspended particulate matter (SPM) collected from the Changjiang Estuary, China. The kinetics of adsorption and desorption were studied in terms of environmental factors (pH, SPM loading, and salinity) and metal concentrations. The uptake of the metals studied onto SPM occurred mostly within 10 h and reached an asymptotic value within 40 h in the Changjiang Estuary. As low pH river water flows into the high pH seawater and the water become more alkaline as it approaches to the seaside of estuary, metals adsorb more on SPM in higher pH water, thus, particulate phase transport of metal become increasingly important in the seaward side of the estuary. The percentage of adsorption recovery and the distribution coefficients for trace metals remained to be relatively invariable and a significant reduction only occurred in very high concentrations of metals (>0.1 mg L⁻¹). The general effect of salinity on metal behavior was to decrease the degree of adsorption of Cu, Zn, Cd, Co, and Ni onto SPM but to increase their adsorption equilibrium pH. The adsorption–desorption kinetics of trace metals were further investigated using Kurbatov adsorption model. The model appears to be most useful for the metals showing the conservative behavior during mixing of river and seawater in the estuary. Our work demonstrates that dissolved concentration of trace metals in estuary can be modeled based on the metal concentration in SPM, pH and salinity using a Kurbatov adsorption model assuming the natural SPM as a simple surfaced molecule.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Shear strength characterization of municipal solid waste at the Suzhou landfill, China

The current practice of slope stability analysis for a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill usually overlooks the dependence of waste properties on the fill age or embedment depth. Changes in shear strength of MSW as a function of fill age were investigated by performing field and laboratory studies on the Suzhou landfill in China. The field study included sampling from five boreholes advanced to the bottom of the landfill, cone penetration tests and monitoring of pore fluid pressures. Twenty-six borehole samples representative of different fill ages (0 to 13 years) were used to perform drained triaxial compression tests. The field and laboratory study showed that the waste body in the landfill can be sub-divided into several strata corresponding to different ranges of fill age. Each of the waste strata has individual composition and shear strength characteristics. The triaxial test results showed that the MSW samples exhibited a strain-hardening and contractive behavior. As the fill age of the waste increased from 1.7 years to 11 years, the cohesion mobilized at a strain level of 10% was found to decrease from 23.3 kPa to 0 kPa, and the mobilized friction angle at the same strain level increasing from 9.9° to 26°. For a confinement stress level greater than 50 kPa, the shear strength of the recently-placed MSW seemed to be lower than that of the older MSW. This behavior was consistent with the cone penetration test results. The field measurement of pore pressures revealed a perched leachate mound above an intermediate cover of soils and a substantial leachate mound near the bottom of the landfill. The measurements of shear strength properties and pore pressures were utilized to assess the slope stability of the Suzhou landfill.