Evaluation of Land Surface Scheme SABAE-HW in Simulating Snow Depth,Soil Temperature and Soil Moisture within the BOREAS Site,Saskatchewan

The Soil Atmosphere Boundary, Accurate Evaluation of Heat and Water (SABAE-HW) model is a multilayered, one-dimensional, physically based version of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and uses the same methodologies as CLASS, version 2.6. SABAE provides an improved interface for groundwater modelling to simulate soil moisture, soil temperature, energy fluxes and snow depth for a wide range of soil and vegetation. This paper reports the results of the first field comparison of SABAE-HW using an extensive ten-year dataset from the Boreal Ecosystem Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) and the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) project, an area in central Saskatchewan, Canada, rich in terms of hydrological and meteorological data. The model is also independently tested and verified with the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, which is an unsaturated-zone transport model. Two boundary conditions are considered at the bottom of the soil profile: a water table boundary condition and a unit gradient boundary condition. There was substantial agreement between the results of the simulations and observations in terms of snow depth and soil temperature. Snow depth and soil temperature were simulated reasonably well by SABAE, with correlation values of 0.96 and 0.98, respectively. However, there were some discrepancies for simulated soil temperature in winter. General agreement was obtained in terms of unfrozen soil moisture results, especially at greater depths, but there were general similarities in observed and simulated soil moisture trends in winter. An average correlation of 0.55 was found for SABAE while the correlation for SHAW was much smaller (less than 0.30), which indicates a better fit between simulated and field data by SABAE. Although a unit gradient boundary condition does not influence soil moisture, it was found that unit gradient boundary runs resulted in increased bias towards overestimation of the soil temperature. Thus, a safer and more accurate approach, we believe, is to adopt a first type boundary (i.e., water table) condition at the bottom of the domain. This has implications for climate and weather modelling in general. The result of this field testing demonstrated the potential and high accuracy of SABAE-HW as a Canadian model capable of simulating snow depth, snow temperature, soil moisture, energy fluxes, and we believe it is now appropriate to include this land surface scheme with its counterparts.

R ésumé ?[Traduit par la rédaction] Le modèle Soil Atmosphere Boundary, Accurate Evaluation of Heat and Water (SABAE-HW) est une version multicouche, à une dimension, basée sur la physique du schéma CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme) qui utilise les mêmes méthodologies que le CLASS version 2.6. Le SABAE offre une interface améliorée pour la modélisation des eaux sous-terraines permettant de simuler l'humidité du sol, la température du sol, les flux d'énergie et l'épaisseur de la neige pour une grande variété de sols et de végétation. Cet article présente les résultats de la première comparaison terrain du SABAE-HW en utilisant une base de données étendue de dix ans de l'Étude de l'atmosphère et des écosystèmes boréaux (BOREAS) et du projet des Sites de recherche et de surveillance des écosystèmes boréaux (BERMS), une région du centre de la Saskatchewan, au Canada, riche en données hydrologiques et météorologiques. Le modèle est aussi indépendamment testé et vérifié à l'aide du Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW), un modèle de transport en zone non saturée. Deux conditions aux limites sont supposées au fond du profil du sol : une condition aux limites de nappe phréatique et une condition aux limites de gradient unitaire. On a trouvé une concordance importante entre les résultats des simulations et les observations en ce qui a trait à l'épaisseur de la neige et à la température du sol. L'épaisseur de la neige et la température du sol ont été raisonnablement bien simulées par le modèle SABAE, avec des corrélations de 0,96 et 0,98, respectivement. Cependant, il y avait certaines divergences pour la température simulée du sol en hiver. Pour ce qui est des résultats concernant l'humidité du sol non gelé, ils s'accordaient généralement, surtout pour les plus grandes profondeurs, mais il y avait des similarités générales dans les tendances observées et simulées de l'humidité du sol en hiver. Nous avons trouvé une corrélation moyenne de 0,55 pour le SABAE alors que la corrélation pour le SHAW était beaucoup plus faible (0,30), ce qui indique un meilleur ajustement des données simulées aux données de terrain pour le SABAE. Même si une condition aux limites de gradient unitaire n'influence pas l'humidité du sol, il ressort que des passes faites avec un gradient unitaire aux limites ont produit un biais accru vers la surestimation de la température du sol. Donc, nous croyons qu'une approche plus sûre et plus précise serait d'adopter une condition aux limites de Dirichlet (c.-à-d. une nappe phréatique) au fond du domaine. Ceci a des répercussions sur la modélisation du climat et du temps en général. Le résultat de cet essai sur le terrain a démontré le potentiel et la grande exactitude du SABAE-HW en tant que modèle canadien capable de simuler l'épaisseur de la neige, la température du sol, l'humidité du sol et les flux d'énergie et nous croyons qu'il est maintenant approprié d'inclure ce schéma de surface avec ses contreparties.     

Intensity measures for the seismic response evaluation of buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motions

Ground-motion Intensity Measures (IMs) are used to quantify the strength of ground motions and evaluate the response of structures. IMs act as a link between seismic demand and seismic hazard analysis and therefore, have a key role in performance-based earthquake engineering. Many studies have been carried out on the determination of suitable IMs in terms of efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness. The majority of these investigations focused on ordinary structures such as buildings and bridges, and only a few were about buried pipelines. In the current study, the optimal IMs for predicting the seismic demand of continuous buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motion records is investigated. Incremental dynamic analysis is performed using twenty ground motion records. Using the results of the regression analysis, the optimality of 23 potential IMs are studied. It is concluded that specific energy density (SED) followed by \(\sqrt {VSI[{\omega _1}(PGD + RM{S_d})]} \) are the optimal IMs based on efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness for seismic response evaluation of buried pipelines under near-field ground motions.

     

Monitoring and projection of climate change impact on 24-h probable maximum precipitation in the Southeast of Caspian Sea

Natural Hazards - Due to the impacts of climate change on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and its importance in designing hydraulic structures, PMP estimation is crucial. In this study, the...     

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change...     

Cost–benefit analyses to assess the potential of Operational Earthquake Forecasting prior to a mainshock in Europe

In the past couple of decades, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) has been proposed as a way of mitigating earthquake risk. In particular, it has the potential to reduce human losses (injuries and deaths) by triggering actions such as reinforcing earthquake drills and preventing access to vulnerable structures during a period of increased seismic hazard. Despite the dramatic increases in seismic hazard in the immediate period before a mainshock (of up to 1000 times has been observed), the probability of a potentially damaging earthquake occurring in the coming days or weeks remains small (generally less than 5%). Therefore, it is necessary to balance the definite cost of taking an action against the uncertain chance that it will mitigate earthquake losses. In this article, parametric cost–benefit analyses using a recent seismic hazard model for Europe and a wide range of inputs are conducted to assess when potential actions for short-term OEF are cost–beneficial prior to a severe mainshock. Ninety-six maps for various combinations of input parameters are presented. These maps show that low-cost actions (costing less than 1% of the mitigated losses) are cost–beneficial within the context of OEF for areas of moderate to high seismicity in the Mediterranean region. The actions triggered by OEF in northern areas of the continent are, however, unlikely to be cost–beneficial unless very large increases in seismicity are observed or very low-cost actions are possible.

     

Biological assessment of the Zayandeh Rud River, Iran, using benthic macroinvertebrates

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities from the middle of Zayandeh Rud River were analyzed monthly during 1 year at 8 stations, in order to assess changes in their diversity and richness in relation to water quality. Two major groups of sites based on similarity between macroinvertebrate communities were identified by cluster analysis. The performances of the original and revised BMWP score systems were assessed by comparing the community structure indices of benthic macroinvertebrates along with physico-chemical parameters of the water. The biotic indices (BMWP, ASPT, revised BMWP and ASPT) showed better correlation with water quality parameters than that of the richness and diversity indices. The revised ASPT had the highest correlation with water quality parameters. It seems that the application of the revised BMWP score system could be useful for assessment of the water quality in Zayandeh Rud River.     

Deep reflection seismic imaging of iron-oxide deposits in the Ludvika mining area of central Sweden

Reflection seismic data were acquired within two field campaigns in the Blötberget, Ludvika mining area of central Sweden, for deep imaging of iron-oxide mineralization that were known to extend down to 800–850 m depth. The two surveys conducted in years 2015 and 2016, one employing a seismic landstreamer and geophones connected to wireless recorders, and another one using cabled geophones and wireless recorders, aimed to delineate the geometry and depth extent of the iron-oxide mineralization for when mining commences in the area. Even with minimal and conventional processing approaches, the merged datasets provide encouraging information about the depth continuation of the mineralized horizons and the geological setting of the study area. Multiple sets of strong reflections represent a possible continuation of the known deposits that extend approximately 300 m further down-dip than the known 850 m depth obtained from historical drilling. They show excellent correlation in shape and strength with those of the Blötberget deposits. Furthermore, several reflections in the footwall of the known mineralization can potentially be additional resources underlying the known ones. The results from these seismic surveys are encouraging for mineral exploration purposes given the good quality of the final section and fast seismic surveys employing a simple cost-effective and easily available impact-type seismic source.     

Hydrothermal Alteration, Fluid Inclusion and Stable Isotope Studies of the North Roby Zone, Lac des Iles PGE Mine, Ontario, Canada

The Archean mafic–ultramafic complex of Lac des Iles, Ontario, Canada, hosts economic platinum group elements (PGE)-Au-Cu-Ni mineralization in the Roby Zone. All lithologies in the North Roby Zone have been affected by hydrothermal alteration. The alteration products include talc (the most dominant mineral), anthophyllite, serpentine, actinolite, tremolite, chlorite, hornblende, zoisite, clinozoisite, epidote and sericite. In the altered rocks, light rare earth elements (La, Ce, Nd, Sm), Pb, Rb, Ba, Cs, S and possibly Y have been added by hydrothermal solution whereas Eu and heavy rare earth elements (Yb, Gd, Dy, Er) remained immobile. There are five types of fluid inclusions in the pegmatitic plagioclase with homogenization temperature and salinity ranging from 240°C to 445°C and 15.37 to 48.52 wt% equivalent NaCl, respectively. The δ¹⁸O and δD of talc range form 6.2‰ to 6.9‰ and −28‰ to −48‰, respectively. δ¹⁸O and δD water in equilibrium with talc during the hydrothermal alteration suggest a modified source for the hydrothermal solution. Microthermometry and stable isotope studies suggest that high temperature–high salinity fluid was diluted by, and mixed with, low temperature–low salinity meteoric solution. This mechanism precipitated the hydrothermal assemblage and redistributed trace elements during and after pegmatite formation in the North Ruby Zone.     

Long-term coupled behaviour of cemented paste backfill in load cell experiments

A pressure cell apparatus has been developed in this research work to study the long-term hydro-mechanical behaviour of cemented paste backfill (CPB) cured under applied stress. The samples are cured for 7, 28, 90 and 150 days and the evolution of their mechanical, hydraulic, physical and microstructural properties is studied. Also, the suction, temperature and electrical conductivity are monitored for a period of 150 days of curing. The testing and monitoring programmes are conducted in undrained conditions, with and without pressure application. The obtained results show that the curing stress affects the hydro-mechanical behaviour of CPB for up to 28 days. Within this curing period, the CPB exhibits enhanced hydro-mechanical performance. However, application of sustained excessive curing stress onto the CPB samples induces the propagation of microcracks in the backfill structure, thus causing lower mechanical strength and higher fluid permeability at the more advanced ages. Furthermore, the mineralogical and chemical compositions of the tailings (e.g., sulfidic tailings) can significantly alter the mechanical strength properties (uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus) and the permeability of the CPB. The evolution of coupled factors and characteristics of the CPB at an early age control and influence its long-term behaviour and performance.