Geographically weighted elastic net logistic regression

This paper develops a localized approach to elastic net logistic regression, extending previous research describing a localized elastic net as an extension to a localized ridge regression or a localized lasso. All such models have the objective to capture data relationships that vary across space. Geographically weighted elastic net logistic regression is first evaluated through a simulation experiment and shown to provide a robust approach for local model selection and alleviating local collinearity, before application to two case studies: county-level voting patterns in the 2016 USA presidential election, examining the spatial structure of socio-economic factors associated with voting for Trump, and a species presence–absence data set linked to explanatory environmental and climatic factors at gridded locations covering mainland USA. The approach is compared with other logistic regressions. It improves prediction for the election case study only which exhibits much greater spatial heterogeneity in the binary response than the species case study. Model comparisons show that standard geographically weighted logistic regression over-estimated relationship non-stationarity because it fails to adequately deal with collinearity and model selection. Results are discussed in the context of predictor variable collinearity and selection and the heterogeneities that were observed. Ongoing work is investigating locally derived elastic net parameters.     

Early Cretaceous (late Berriasian to early Aptian) palaeoceanographic change along the northwestern Tethyan margin (Vocontian Trough,southeastern France): δ13C, δ18O and Sr-isotope belemnite and whole-rock records

Stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope records were obtained from uppermost Hauterivian to lowermost Aptian belemnite rostra, which were collected in well-dated sections from the Vocontian Trough (southeastern France). This data set complements previously published belemnite-isotope records from the uppermost Berriasian-Hauterivian interval from the same basin. The belemnite carbon and oxygen isotope record is compared to the carbonate bulk-rock isotope record from the same sections, and from additional Italian sections. With regards to their long-term trends, both belemnite and whole-rock δ¹⁸O records are well correlated, except for the uppermost Hauterivian-lower Barremian interval, within which they deviate. This discrepancy is interpreted to be linked to the latest Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event and its early Barremian aftermath. The Faraoni level is characterized by enhanced sea-water stratification, probably induced by the onset of a warmer and more humid climate along the northern Tethyan margin. The early Barremian was characterized by stronger vertical sea-water mixing reflected by a decrease in density contrast between sea-surface and deeper waters. The belemnite oxygen isotope record shows a more stable evolution with smaller fluctuations than its bulk-rock counterpart, which indicates that deeper water masses were not as much subjected to density fluctuations as sea-surface water. The comparison of belemnite and bulk-rock carbon isotope records allows observing the impact of regional influence exerted by platform carbonate ooze shedding on the carbon cycle. Discrepancies in the two records are observed during time of photozoan carbonate platform growth. The strontium isotopic record shows a gradual increase from the uppermost Berriasian to the uppermost lower Barremian followed by a rapid decrease until the uppermost Barremian and a renewed small increase within the lowermost Aptian. The major inflection point in the uppermost lower Barremian appears to predate the onset in the formation of the Ontong-Java volcanic plateau.     

The Equatorial Undercurrent in the central Atlantic and its relation to tropical Atlantic variability

Seasonal to interannual variations of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the central Atlantic at 23°W are studied using shipboard observation taken during the period 1999–2011 as well as moored velocity time series covering the period May 2005–June 2011. The seasonal variations are dominated by an annual harmonic of the EUC transport and the EUC core depth (both at maximum during September), and a semiannual harmonic of the EUC core velocity (maximum during April and September). Substantial interannual variability during the period of moored observation included anomalous cold/warm equatorial Atlantic cold tongue events during 2005/2008. The easterly winds in the western equatorial Atlantic during boreal spring that represent the preconditioning of cold/warm events were strong/weak during 2005/2008 and associated with strong/weak boreal summer EUC transport. The anomalous year 2009 was instead associated with weak preconditioning and smallest EUC transport on record from January to July, but during August coldest SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic were observed. The interannual variations of the EUC are discussed with respect to recently described variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.     

Near-bottom particle concentration and flux: Temporal variations observed with sediment traps and nepholometer on the Meriadzek Terrace, Bay of Biscay

The Meriadzek Terrace (a 2100m deep plateau on the North-East Atlantic continental slope) was chosen as the experimental site for a multidisciplinary programme to observe the parameters needed for a better understanding of biological processes in the benthic environment.Two approaches were used to study the input of particulate matter to the bathyal seabed: sediment traps and indirect particle concentration measurements with nephelometry. These two technologies do not measure particles of the same size range, but as we are interested in the fluctuations of the particle supply, their results are complementary.Vertical profiles of nephelometry show that over the Meriadzek Terrace there is 125m thick nepheloid layer immediately above the bottom.The dynamics in the deep layer has been determined by measurements made with a Module Autonome Pluridisciplinaire (MAP), an in situ monitoring device developed at IFREMER which measures currents, nephelometry, temperature vertical profile near the bottom.Throughout six months of measurements in 1984, the currents at 0.5m and 120m above the bottom were subject to semi-diurnal tidal oscillations. The intensity of light scattering recorded with the nephelometer on the MAP was highly correlated with current velocities especially with semidiurnal tidal oscillations which seem to induce local resuspension. There are also longer term fluctuations, notably a very strong event which lasted several days during August. This event lagged behind a period of high intensity of internal waves correlated with a reversal in current direction. The sediment trap (Pièges à Particules “PAP”) observations showed that the particle fluxes on the Meriadzek Terrace have a cycle of variation similar to primary production which is characterized by a maximum in May during the phytoplankton bloom and a minimum during January. There was also interannual fluctuation.These two kinds of results point out the different time scales (from some hours to several months) of the large temporal fluctuations which affect the near-bottom particle behaviour.     

Paleolakes, paleofloods, and depressions in Aurorae and Ophir Plana, Mars: Connectivity of surface and subsurface hydrological systems

The plains of Aurorae and Ophir in the equatorial region of Mars display geomorphic evidence indicative of extensive but generally short-lived paleohydrological processes. Elaver Vallis in Aurorae Planum south of Ganges Chasma is an outflow channel system >180 km long, and here inferred to have formed by cataclysmic spillover flooding from a paleolake(s) contained in the Morella crater basin. Ganges Cavus is an enormous 5-km-deep depression of probable collapse origin located in the Morella basin. The fluid responsible for the infilling of the Morella basin likely emerged at least partially through Ganges Cavus or its incipient depression, and it may have been supplied also from small-scale springs in the basin. Similar paleohydrological processes are inferred also in Ophir Planum. It is reasonable to assume that water, sometimes sediment-laden and/or mixed with gases, was the responsible fluid for these phenomena although some of the observed features could be explained by non-aqueous processes such as volcanism. Water emergence may have occurred as consequences of ground ice melting or breaching of cryosphere to release water from the underlying hydrosphere. Dike intrusion is considered to be an important cause of formation for the cavi and smaller depressions in Aurorae and Ophir Plana, explaining also melting of ground ice or breaching of cryosphere. Alternatively, the depressions and crater basins may have been filled by regional groundwater table rising during the period(s) when cryosphere was absent or considerably thin. The large quantities of water necessary for explaining the paleohydrological processes in Aurorae and Ophir Plana could have been derived through crustal migration from the crust of higher plains in western Ophir Planum where water existed in confined aquifers or was produced by melting of ground ice due to magmatic heating or climatic shift, or from a paleolake in Candor Chasma further west.