Explaining the eventual transient saturation of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Background

Coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations generally show that climate feedbacks amplify the buildup of CO₂ under respective anthropogenic emission. The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback is characterised by the feedback gain: the relative increase in CO₂ increment as compared to uncoupled simulations. According to the results of the recent Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C⁴MIP), the gain is expected to increase during the 21st century. This conclusion is not supported by the climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). The latter model shows an eventual transient saturation of the feedback gain. This saturation is manifested in a change of climate-carbon cycle feedback gain which grows initially, attains a maximum, and then decreases, eventually tending to unity.

Results

Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM as well as an analysis of the conceptual framework demonstrate that this eventual transient saturation results from the fact that transient climate sensitivity decreases with time.

Conclusion

One may conclude that the eventual transient saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback is a fundamental property of the coupled climate-carbon system that manifests itself on a relevant time scale.     

An evaluation of the economic,social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions

The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways is a strategic move to promote transportation infrastructure inter-connectivity between these countries, which will accelerate the implementation of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. However, well-planned China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways demand accurately identifying construction risks, scientifically evaluating risk levels, and mapping the spatial distribution of these risks. Therefore, this study established the integrated risk evaluation model (IREM) to scientifically evaluate the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and determine their magnitude and spatial distribution pattern. Based on this analysis, we propose designs for the east and west China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways and policy suggestions to mitigate construction risks. Suggestions include developing innovative cooperation of the "high-speed railway for resources and market", strengthening communication and technology dissemination, and applying innovative engineering techniques and setting buffers; establishing collaborative prevention and control systems to mitigate the three major ecological risks in the China, Mongolia, and Russia trans-border areas; and promoting economic integration by improving strategic coordination. In summary, this study provides scientific support for designing the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways minimizing construction risks.     

Mesoscale distribution and advection of overwintering Calanus finmarchicus off the shelf of northern Norway

Data collected on a cruise in January 2008, using a laser optical plankton counter, conductivity–temperature–depth sensors, and a lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler, was used to study the mesoscale distribution and advection of overwintering Calanus finmarchicus in its deep water winter habitat off the shelf of northern Norway. The overwintering animals were generally located immediately below the Atlantic Water (AW) in Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW), in the 600–1200 m depth range. The depth of the interface between AW and AIW varied considerably in the area and this was clearly reflected in the C. finmarchicus distribution. Maximum abundance varied from about 80 ind m^?3 to more than 200 ind m^?3 at the different stations. Current measurements showed the richness of mesoscazle eddies, with speeds exceeding 70 cm s^?1 at the surface and rapidly decreasing with depth. In the main overwintering layer the eddy features were also clearly seen, but with speeds generally below 20 cm s^?1. C. finmarchicus were found in the whole survey area, but they were not homogeneously distributed. Advection of the copepods resulted in relatively high local rates of change in overwintering C. finmarchicus abundance with mean value of 8% per day in the area. It is clear that mesoscale physical processes greatly contribute to the variability in the abundance of overwintering C. finmarchicus off the shelf of northern Norway. The collected data are also a valuable addition to the generally sparse datasets on the C. finmarchicus winter distribution and the role of the Lofoten basin in the large scale system is also discussed.     

Clay Mineral Associations in Triassic–Lower Cretaceous Rocks of the Dal'negorsk Key Section, Southern Sikhote Alin

Investigation of the Triassic–Lower Cretaceous rocks of the Dal'negorsk key section (southern Sikhote Alin) revealed the following successive associations of authigenic clay minerals: (1) sericite–chlorite (Lower Triassic); (2) mica–chlorite (Anisian–Norian); (3) chlorite–mica (Rhaetian–Lower Jurassic); and (4) smectite–chlorite–mica (Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous). These four associations reflect the primary composition of terrigenous admixture in the siliceous sediments and, hence, serve as important indicators of paleosedimentation conditions. The first association represents a product of the erosion of metamorphic rock complexes. The second one reflects the onset of volcanic activity within the sedimentation basin coinciding in time with a vigorous bloom of siliceous plankton (radiolarians) and short-term appearance of specific (anoxic) carbonaceous sediments in the sequence. The third association characterizes the epoch of minimal supply of the basin with volcanic and terrigenous clastic materials and the dominant accumulation of almost pure planktonogenic sediments. The fourth association marks the change of marginal-marine conditions for pelagic ones and is expressed in a significant input of pyroclastic and clastic materials and the formation of distal flysch deposits.     

Geochemistry of late Cenozoic lavas on Kunashir Island, Kurile Arc

Middle Miocene to Quaternary lavas on Kunashir Island in the southern zone of the Kurile Arc were examined for major, trace, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope compositions. The lavas range from basalt through to rhyolite and the mafic lavas show typical oceanic island arc signatures without significant crustal or sub-continental lithosphere contamination. The lavas exhibit across-arc variation, with increasingly greater fluid-immobile incompatible element contents from the volcanic front to the rear-arc; this pattern, however, does not apply to some other incompatible elements such as B, Sb, and halogens. All Sr–Nd–Pb isotope compositions reflect a depleted source with Indian Ocean mantle domain characteristics. The Nd and Pb isotope ratios are radiogenic in the volcanic front, whereas Sr isotope ratios are less radiogenic. These Nd isotope ratios covary with incompatible element ratios such as Th/Nd and Nb/Zr, indicating involvement of a slab-derived sediment component by addition of melt or supercritical fluid capable of mobilizing these high field-strength elements and rare earth elements from the slab. Fluid mobile elements, such as Ba, are also elevated in all basalt suites, suggesting involvement of slab fluid derived from altered oceanic crust. The Kurile Arc lavas are thus affected both by slab sediment and altered basaltic crust components. This magma plumbing system has been continuously active from the Middle Miocene to the present.     

中蒙俄高铁建设的影响机理及对策

中蒙俄高铁建设是促进中蒙俄交通基础设施互联互通、打造国际陆上交通走廊的重要举措,是中蒙俄经济走廊建设的重要突破口。科学合理地布局中蒙俄高铁线路、规避高铁建设面临的不利影响和风险,急需理清高铁建设的影响因子,揭示其作用机理和空间分布格局,制定针对性强的防控对策。本文分析了中蒙俄高铁建设的主要影响因子,阐明了各类因子对高铁建设的影响机理,通过构建一种综合集成的影响指数评估模型（IIIEM）,量化评估了不同地区各类影响因子的影响指数,揭示了其空间分布格局,并据此制定了消除影响的中蒙俄高铁东线和西线的线路布局建议方案。提出通过“高铁换资源、高铁换市场”等互利共赢创新合作模式,消除经济影响;加强沟通和技术展示,降低社会影响;通过设置缓冲区及高科技手段,规避生态风险;构建中蒙俄跨境地区三大生态风险跨国联合防控体系,加强政策对接,促进中蒙俄经济一体化等防控对策及保障措施。本研究将为中蒙俄高铁建设线路科学合理布局、风险防控提供科技支撑和决策参考。     

Isotopic composition of gas hydrates in subsurface sediments from offshore Sakhalin Island, Sea of Okhotsk

Hydrate-bearing sediment cores were retrieved from recently discovered seepage sites located offshore Sakhalin Island in the Sea of Okhotsk. We obtained samples of natural gas hydrates and dissolved gas in pore water using a headspace gas method for determining their molecular and isotopic compositions. Molecular composition ratios C₁/_C2+ from all the seepage sites were in the range of 1,500–50,000, while δ¹³C and δD values of methane ranged from ?66.0 to ?63.2‰ VPDB and ?204.6 to ?196.7‰ VSMOW, respectively. These results indicate that the methane was produced by microbial reduction of CO₂. δ¹³C values of ethane and propane (i.e., ?40.8 to ?27.4‰ VPDB and ?41.3 to ?30.6‰ VPDB, respectively) showed that small amounts of thermogenic gas were mixed with microbial methane. We also analyzed the isotopic difference between hydrate-bound and dissolved gases, and discovered that the magnitude by which the δD hydrate gas was smaller than that of dissolved gas was in the range 4.3–16.6‰, while there were no differences in δ¹³C values. Based on isotopic fractionation of guest gas during the formation of gas hydrate, we conclude that the current gas in the pore water is the source of the gas hydrate at the VNIIOkeangeologia and Giselle Flare sites, but not the source of the gas hydrate at the Hieroglyph and KOPRI sites.     

The Master Mobile Astronomical System. Optical Observations of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The operating principles of the telescope-robot system MASTER (Mobile Astronomical System of Telescopes-Robots, http://observ.pereplet.ru), designed to search for fast transient phenomena in the optical range, are described. The robot-telescope includes the following: a Richter-Slefogt telescope with D=355 mm, F/D=2.4, a Richter-Slefogt telescope with D=200 mm, F/D=2.4, a Flugge telescope with D=280 mm, F/D=2.5, a TV camera with a field of 20x40 degrees, and three CCD cameras. A German mount with a slew rate of 8 deg/s is used. MASTER obtains images down to 19^m in a field of 6 square degrees in a 1.5 minute exposure. We present some observations of the optical afterglow of cosmic gamma-ray bursts. MASTER was the first system in Europe to record optical emission from GRB030329.__________Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 463–475 (August 2005).     

Clay minerals as an indicator of the accumulation of the Upper Quaternary deposits in the St. Anna Trough (Kara Sea)

This paper is devoted to the studies of clay minerals from two cores collected in the northern and central regions of the St. Anna Trough, the largest trough of the Kara Sea. The Upper Quaternary glacial, glaciomarine, and marine deposits are characterized by various contents of kaolinite, chlorite, illite, and smectite. It is established that, from older to younger deposits, the amounts of kaolinite and chlorite generally decrease, while those of illite and smectite, on the contrary, increase. A joint analysis of the distributions of clay and heavy minerals over the section allowed us to refine the position of the sources for the terrigenous matter and their temporal variability. It is shown the changes in the sources of supply were directly related to the climate changes that occurred when passing from the glacial to marine sedimentation environments.     

Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S _g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency.