GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method

Seasonal GCM-based temperature and precipitation projections for the end of the 21st century are presented for five European regions; projections are compared with corresponding estimates given by the PRUDENCE RCMs. For most of the six global GCMs studied, only responses to the SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios are available. To formulate projections for the A1FI and B1 forcing scenarios, a super-ensemble pattern-scaling technique has been developed. This method uses linear regression to represent the relationship between the local GCM-simulated response and the global mean temperature change simulated by a simple climate model. The method has several advantages: e.g., the noise caused by internal variability is reduced, and the information provided by GCM runs performed with various forcing scenarios is utilized effectively. The super-ensemble method proved especially useful when only one A2 and one B2 simulation is available for an individual GCM. Next, 95% probability intervals were constructed for regional temperature and precipitation change, separately for the four forcing scenarios, by fitting a normal distribution to the set of projections calculated by the GCMs. For the high-end of the A1FI uncertainty interval, temperature increases close to 10°C could be expected in the southern European summer and northern European winter. Conversely, the low-end warming estimates for the B1 scenario are ~ 1°C. The uncertainty intervals of precipitation change are quite broad, but the mean estimate is one of a marked increase in the north in winter and a drastic reduction in the south in summer. In the RCM simulations driven by a single global model, the spread of the temperature and precipitation projections tends to be smaller than that in the GCM simulations, but it is possible to reduce this disparity by employing several driving models for all RCMs. In the present suite of simulations, the difference between the mean GCM and RCM projections is fairly small, regardless of the number or driving models applied.     

The distribution of atomic gas and dust in nearby galaxies – I. Presentation of matched-resolution VLA H i and SCUBA 850-μm maps

We present matched-resolution VLA H  i and SCUBA 850-μm maps of 20 IRAS -bright galaxies. Of the galaxies observed, two were not detected in H  i and two were detected in absorption. The H  i distributions of the galaxies have a range of morphologies. Some of the systems appear H  i deficient in the central regions which could be due to a high conversion rate of H  i into molecules or H  i absorption. In contrast to the H  i , the 850-μm emission has a smooth distribution which is concentrated towards the optical centre of each galaxy. We also find evidence for 850-μm emission extending to the periphery of the optical disc in some of the galaxies. Finally, we note that the relative lack of 850-μm emission when compared with H  i does not necessarily mean that the atomic gas and dust do not have similar mass distributions.     

Two-body relaxation in cosmological simulations

It is logically possible that early two-body relaxation in simulations of cosmological clustering influences the final structure of massive clusters. Convergence studies in which mass and spatial resolution are simultaneously increased cannot eliminate this possibility. We test the importance of two-body relaxation in cosmological simulations with simulations in which there are two species of particles. The cases of two mass ratios, √2:1 and 4:1, are investigated. Simulations are run with both a spatially fixed softening length and adaptive softening using the publicly available codes gadget and mlapm , respectively.
The effects of two-body relaxation are detected in both the density profiles of haloes and the mass function of haloes. The effects are more pronounced with a fixed softening length, but even in this case they are not so large as to suggest that results obtained with one mass species are significantly affected by two-body relaxation.
The simulations that use adaptive softening are less affected by two-body relaxation and produce slightly higher central densities in the largest haloes. They run about three times faster than the simulations that use a fixed softening length.     

Crystallization and very rapid exhumation of the youngest Alpine eclogites (Tauern Window,Eastern Alps) from Rb/Sr mineral assemblage analysis

Multimineral Rb/Sr internal isochrons from eclogite facies rocks of the Eclogite Zone (Tauern Window, Eastern Alps) consistently yield an Early Oligocene age of 31.5±0.7 Ma. This age has been obtained both for late-prograde, dehydration-related eclogitic veins, and for rocks variably deformed and recrystallized under eclogite facies conditions (2.0–2.5 GPa, 600°C). Initial Sr-isotopic equilibria among all phases indicate absence of significant post-eclogitic isotope redistribution processes, therefore the ages date eclogite facies assemblage crystallization. Equilibria also prove that no prolonged pre-eclogite facies history is recorded in the rocks. Instead, subduction, prograde mineral reactions, and eclogitization proceeded rapidly. Fast exhumation immediately after eclogitization, with minimum rates >36 mm/a is inferred from a 31.5±0.5 Ma internal mineral isochron age of a post-eclogitic greenschist facies vein assemblage. Such rates equal typical subduction rates. Late Eocene to Early Oligocene subduction of the European continental margin, with subsequent rapid exhumation of high-pressure nappe complexes has previously been recognized only in the Western Alps. The new data signify synchronous continental collision all along the Alpine belt. Our results demonstrate the unique potential of Rb/Sr assemblage system analysis for precise dating of both eclogite facies and post-eclogitic events, thus for precisely constraining exhumation rates of deep-seated rocks, and for straightforward linkage of petrologic evidence with isotopic ages.     

Approaches to optimal aquifer management and intelligent control in a multiresolutional decision support system

Despite remarkable new developments in stochastic hydrology and adaptations of advanced methods from operations research, stochastic control, and artificial intelligence, solutions of complex real-world problems in hydrogeology have been quite limited. The main reason is the ultimate reliance on first-principle models that lead to complex, distributed-parameter partial differential equations (PDE) on a given scale. While the addition of uncertainty, and hence, stochasticity or randomness has increased insight and highlighted important relationships between uncertainty, reliability, risk, and their effect on the cost function, it has also (a) introduced additional complexity that results in prohibitive computer power even for just a single uncertain/random parameter; and (b) led to the recognition in our inability to assess the full uncertainty even when including all uncertain parameters. A paradigm shift is introduced: an adaptation of new methods of intelligent control that will relax the dependency on rigid, computer-intensive, stochastic PDE, and will shift the emphasis to a goal-oriented, flexible, adaptive, multiresolutional decision support system (MRDS) with strong unsupervised learning (oriented towards anticipation rather than prediction) and highly efficient optimization capability, which could provide the needed solutions of real-world aquifer management problems. The article highlights the links between past developments and future optimization/planning/control of hydrogeologic systems.

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Resumen  A pesar de nuevos avances notables en hidrología estocástica y las adaptaciones de métodos avanzados de investigación de operaciones, control estocástico, e inteligencia artificial, las soluciones de problemas complejos del mundo real en hidrogeología han sido bastante limitadas. La principal razón es la dependencia definitiva en modelos de primer-principio que conducen a ecuaciones parciales diferencias de parámetro distribuido complejas (PDE) a una escala dada. Mientras que la adición de incertidumbre, y por lo tanto, estocasticidad o aleatoriedad ha incrementado la profundidad y resaltado relaciones importantes entre la incertidumbre, confiabilidad, riesgo, y su efecto en la función de costo, la adición también ha permitido (a) introducir complejidad adicional que resulta en potencia computacional excesiva aún para un solo parámetro incierto/aleatorio; y (b) llevar a reconocer nuestra discapacidad para evaluar la incertidumbre completa aún cuando se incluyen todos los parámetros inciertos. Se introduce un cambio paradigmático: una adaptación de nuevos métodos de control de inteligencia que relajará la dependencia en PDE estocásticas, rígidas y de uso computacional intensivo, cambiando el énfasis hacia un sistema de apoyo de decisiones de propósitos múltiples (MRDS) adaptivo, flexible, y orientado a objetivos con fuerte aprendizaje sin supervisión (orientado a la anticipación más que a la predicción) con fuerte capacidad de optimización eficiente, lo cual podría aportar las soluciones necesarias a los problemas de manejo reales con los acuíferos. El artículo resalta los vínculos entre desarrollos pasados y control/planificación/optimización futura de sistemas hidrogeológicos.

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Résumé  Malgré de remarquables nouveaux développements en hydrologie stochastique ainsi que de remarquables adaptations de méthodes avancées pour les opérations de recherche, le contrôle stochastique, et lintelligence artificielle, solutions pour les problèmes complexes en hydrogéologie sont restées assez limitées. La principale raison est lultime confiance en les modèles qui conduisent à des équations partielles complexes aux paramètres distribués (PDE) à une échelle donnée. Alors que laccumulation dincertitudes et, par conséquent, la stockasticité ou laléat a augmenté la perspicacité et a mis en lumière dimportantes relations entre lincertitude, la fiabilité, le risque, et leur effet sur les coûts de fonctionnement, il a également (a) introduit une complexité additionnelle qui résulte dans un pouvoir prohibitif des moyens de calcul informatique même pour une simple estimation de lincertitude; et (b) a conduit a une reconnaissance de notre manque daptitude à maîtriser lincertitude totale même en introduisant tous les paramètres connus de lincertitude. La représentation du changement est introduit: une adaptation de nouvelles méthodes de contrôle intelligent qui va relâcher la dépendance à la rigidité des algorithmes, aux calculs informatiques intensifs, à la PDE stockastique, et qui modifiera lemphase entre les MRDS—systèmes interactifs daide à la décision de multiresolutionelle (flexibles, adaptables et orientables selon les objectifs)—avec un fort apprentissage non (orienté vers lanticipation plutôt que la prédiction), et une capacité doptimisation efficiente très élevée, qui pourrait apporter le besoin de solutions pour la modélisation des problèmes de management des aquifères réalistes. Cet article met en lumière les liens entre les développements passés et les futurs moyens doptimisation, de gestion et de contrôle des systèmes hydrogéologiques.

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Natural and anthropogenic influences on the geochemistry of Quaternary lake sediments from Holzmaar, Germany

 The accumulation of heavy metals and trace elements has been investigated in a well laminated sequence of Holocene and late Pleistocene lake sediments composed of diatomaceous gyttja, tuff and silt and clay sediments. Varve chronology of the annually deposited gyttja yielded a continuous high-resolution time sequence and allowed the absolute age dating of the sediment. Fluxes of elements remained largely uniform from the late Pleistocene into the Holocene (12 867–2 364 VT years ago; VT: varve time, years before 1950). Higher trace element and heavy metal fluxes occur from 2 322 to 862 VT years ago and reached their maxima in the uppermost sediments (<845 VT years ago). These increasing element fluxes correlate with increasing inputs of clastic material. The changing accumulation rates are the result of elevated soil erosion in the lake catchment caused by human settlement, deforestation and agricultural activities. Thus disturbances of the natural geochemical cycles of the Holzmaar region have occurred since the beginning of the Iron Age and especially since the beginning of the Middle Ages. Received: 29 May 1996 · Accepted: 19 August 1996     

Eine neue Netzgarnitur mit Kipp-Schliessmechanismus für quantitative Zooplanktonfänge in Seen

A new set of nets in twin arrangement for quantitative layer-sampling of crustaceans is presented and compared to a volume sampler, as regards capturing characteristics. Due to a favorable geometry and clearly defined opening of the net, there is no loss due to flight reaction nor water backup.