Using a Bayesian estimator to combine information from a cluster analysis and remote sensing data to estimate high-resolution data for agricultural production in Germany

In Germany, a county-resolution data set that consists of 35 land-use and animal-stock categories has been used extensively to assess the impact of agriculture on the environment. However, because such environmental effects as emission or nutrient surplus depend on the location, even a county resolution might produce misleading results. The aim of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach which combines two sorts of information, with one being treated as defining the prior and the other the data to form a posterior, used to estimate a data set at a municipality resolution. We define the joint prior density function based on (i) remote sensing data, thus accounting for differences in county data and missing data at the municipality level, and (ii) the results of a cluster analysis that was previously applied to the micro-census, whereas the data are defined by official statistics at the county level. This approach results in a fairly accurate data set at the municipality level. The results, using the proposed method, are validated by the national research data centre by comparing the estimates to actual observations. The test statistics presented here demonstrate that the proposed approach adequately estimates the production activities.     

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.

     

Fluid regime and diamond formation in the reduced mantle: Experimental constraints

The composition and potential diamond productivity of C–O–H fluids that could exist in the reduced regions of the Earth’s upper mantle and in the mantles of Uranus and Neptune were studied in experiments at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C and durations of 15–48 h. Hydrogen fugacity in the fluid phase was controlled by the Mo–MoO₂ or Fe–FeO buffers, using a specially modified double-capsule method. The oxygen fugacity in the samples was controlled by adding different amounts of water, stearic acid, anthracene, and docosane to a graphite charge. At high P–T conditions, the degree of decomposition of the heavy hydrocarbons added to the charge was 99.9%. The composition of the fluids coexisting with graphite/diamond in the buffered experiments varied from H₂O  H₂ > CH₄ (at fO₂ somewhat lower than the “water maximum”) to H₂ > CH₄ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈ (in C–H system). In the C–H system the maximum concentrations of major species in the synthesized fluid were: H₂ = 79 mol.% and CH₄ = 21 mol.%. The composition of the H₂-rich fluids, which were synthesized at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C for the first time, differs considerably from that of the ultra-reduced CH₄-rich fluids stable at 2.0–3.5 GPa and 1000–1300 °C. Thermodynamic calculations of the reduced C–O–H fluids at the P–T conditions of the experiments revealed CH₄-rich compositions (CH₄  H₂ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈), which however drastically differed from the synthesized compositions. The rates of diamond nucleation and growth in the experiments depended on the fluid composition. Diamond crystallization had a maximum intensity in the pure aqueous fluids, while in the H₂-rich fluids no diamond formation was observed. Only metastable graphite precipitated from the ultra-reduced fluids. The type of the initial hydrocarbon used for the fluid generation did not affect this process.     

Accounting for the solar radiation in thermal regime prediction for railway subgrade in cold regions

This paper presents a comparative analysis of simulation processes of seasonal freezing-thawing of railway subgrade and permafrost degradation, with and without accounting for solar radiation. Also, the effect of sun screens to reduce the degradation of subgrade permafrost under different climatic conditions is numerically substantiated. And finally, the temperature criterion of the origination of permafrost is illustrated.     

The late Quaternary development of three ancient tarns on southwestern Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada: paleolimnological evidence from diatoms and sediment chemistry

Sediment diatom and chemical analyses of cores from three poorly buffered extra-glacial lakes on the northeastern margin of the Canadian Shield (Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island) record interactions between aquatic and terrestrial spheres that were influenced by late Quaternary climatic conditions. Although differences exist between each of the lakes, notably with regards to the intensity of pre-Holocene catchment erosion and the timing of the onset of organic sedimentation, an underlying pattern of lake ontogeny, common to all three lakes, is identified. Although intensified watershed erosion characterized the Late Wisconsinan and Neoglacial cold periods, the lakes nonetheless remained viable ecosystems at these times. Sudden catchment stabilization during the late-glacial to earliest Holocene is associated with incipient organic sedimentation. Lake-water pH increased at this time, likely in response both longer base cation residence times as lake flushing rates decreased, and enhanced alkalinity production from sediment biogeochemical reactions. Subsequently, as the catchments remained stable during the productive early Holocene (c.9–7 ka BP), then gradually received a renewed increase of minerogenic sedimentation, the breakdown of sources of lake alkalinity resulted in natural acidification. Burial of cation-rich mineral sediments and the loss of permanent sedimentary sinks for the products of microbial reduction likely impeded within-lake alkalinity production, and catchment-derived base cations appeared ineffective in curtailing pH declines. The general nature of the Holocene development of these lakes is similar to that observed elsewhere on crystalline terrains, following deglaciation. Our data therefore suggest that catchment glaciation is not a necessary precursor for models of lake development characterized by initial base cation enrichment and subsequent gradual acidification.     

Certified emissions reductions and CDM limits: revenue and distributional aspects

The EU allows those installations that are subject to emissions trading to use a limited volume of certified emissions reductions (CERs), generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to cover their own GHG emissions. These CERs can be used in addition to the EU allowances (EUAs), which were primarily allocated free to installations in Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2008 to 2012. For the year 2008, the CER limits, which are differentiated by EU Member State, created substantial arbitrage rents (due to the CER-EUA spread) of approximately EU€250 million. Different options for the allocation of this rent are discussed and it is found that, according to economic theory, making the right to use CERs tradable or the regulator pre-committing to buying CERs at the level of the relevant limit reduces the inefficiencies connected to the current regulation. Furthermore, auctioning these CER usage rights shifts the rents created through the CER-EUA spread to the Member State itself. The improved design and implementation of CDM limits justifies EU policy makers intervening to correct previously competition-distorting choices.     

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.     

Inundation and flow properties of a runoff-generated debris flow following successive high-severity wildfires in northern Arizona,USA

Burned slopes are susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows in the years following wildfire due to reductions in vegetation cover and soil infiltration capacity. Debris flows can pose serious threats to downstream communities, so quantifying variations in flow properties along debris-flow runout paths is needed to improve both conceptual and quantitative models of debris-flow behaviour to help anticipate and mitigate the risk associated with these events. Changes in flow properties along the runout paths of the runoff-generated debris flows that follow fire may be particularly dramatic, since they initiate when a water-dominated flow rapidly entrains sediment and later transition back to a water-dominated flow once they reach greater drainage areas and lower slopes. Here, we study the properties of a debris flow that initiated 1 month following the 2022 Pipeline Fire in northern Arizona, USA. We categorized flow type into two classes, granular debris flow and muddy debris flow, along the 7-km runout path and examined how flow properties varied between the phases. Changes in channel gradient and confinement likely facilitated the transition between the flow phases, which were characterized by significant differences in maximum clast size, but similar clay content and fine fractions. We also found that the volume and runout distance of the debris flow were 28 and six times greater, respectively, than that of a debris flow that initiated in the same watershed following a fire 12 years earlier. We attribute these differences to the combined effects of two high-severity fires, suggesting that consideration of recent fire history could improve post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. Results of this study provide quantitative constraints on changes in post-fire debris-flow properties along a runout path. Data collected in this study add to a small number of debris-flow inundation datasets that can be used to test runout models in post-fire settings.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Campanian Climatic Change: Isotopic Evidence from Far East, North America, North Atlantic and Western Europe

Paleoclimatic settings have been reconstructed for the Campanian using original oxygen-isotopic analyses of well-preserved molluskan and foraminifera shells from Russian Far East, Hokkaido, USA, Belgium and some DSDP holes (95, 98, 102, 390A, and 392A) in North Atlantic. Early Early Campanian climatic optimum has been recognized from data on high bottom shelf water paleotemperatures in middle latitudes of both the western circum-Pacific (to 24.2°C) and the eastern circum-Pacific (to 26.4°C) areas and high bottom shallow water paleotemperatures in high latitudes of the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), which agrees with the data on the Campanian Barykovskaya flora in high latitudes (Golovneva and Herman, 1998) and Jonker flora and its equivalents in middle latitudes. Judging from the data on comparatively high bottom shallow water paleotemperature values in high latitudes, South Alaska (19.4°C) and the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), we also expect Latest Campanian temperature maximum, which has not been confirmed, however, for low and middle latitudes by neither of isotopic nor paleobotanic data now. Main climatic tendency during the Campanian (with the exception of Latest Campanian) has been learned from isotopic composition of Campanian aragonitic ammonoid shells from the Hokkaido-South Sakhalin (Krilyon) marine basin. In contrary to Huber’s et al. (2002) assumption, we expect warm greenhouse conditions during the most part of the Campanian.